FR Base Power price (€/MWh)

  • Base Cal20
  • Base Cal21
  • Base Q120
  • Base Q220

EUA price (€/t)

  • Cal19
  • Cal20
  • Cal21

Coal Price ($/Tn)

  • Cal20
  • Cal21
  • Q120
  • Q220

Clean Spark Spread – Base (€/MWh)

  • Base Cal20
  • Base Cal21
  • Base Q120
  • Base Q220

Clean Dark Spread – Base (€/MWh)

  • Base Cal20
  • Base Cal21
  • Base Q120
  • Base Q220

FR Peak Power price (€/MWh)

  • Peak Cal20
  • Peak Cal21
  • Peak Q120
  • Peak Q220

PEGN Gas price (€/MWh)

  • Cal20
  • Cal21
  • Q120
  • Q220

Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)

  • Gas + CO2 - Cal20
  • Coal + CO2 - Cal20
  • Gas + CO2 - Cal21
  • Coal + CO2 - Cal21

Clean Spark Spread – Peak (€/MWh)

  • Peak Cal20
  • Peak Cal21
  • Peak Q120
  • Peak Q220

Clean Dark Spread – Peak (€/MWh)

  • Peak Cal20
  • Peak Cal21
  • Peak Q120
  • Peak Q220

Market Analysis – November 2019
Note: closing values refer to Fri, Nov 29th

Prompt and month-ahead contracts:

FRA power prompt context saw consumption levels increase by almost 13GW to an average 68GW at the max on the back of less sun hours with the start of the autumn season and rather colder temperatures, the latter especially noticeable from Nov 12th to Nov 22nd.

On the supply side, nuclear power availability has certainly become the major focus of attention. Ten-year inspections being carried out on some reactors, with some of them seeing their return to the grid delayed, additional outages, and Cruas having been taken offline for safety checks after an earthquake, all resulted in nuclear power generation falling to an average 41.1GW, down by approx. 5GW when compared to November 2018. The non-availability of Cruas, which coincided with a period of colder-than-average temperatures, forced RTE to resort to coal power production, a move rarely seen, and which averaged 2GW at the max. In addition, gas power assets called in run on baseload mode most of the time. Fortunately, this rather depressed generation scenario was partially offset by some periods of quite healthy wind and hydro power output, the first averaging 6.5GW at the max, though it showed some sporadic highs in the range of 10-11GW, and the latter averaging 13GW at the max (up by 4.6GW since our previous analysis), and recording some highs in the 15-16GW range.

As for gas prices, TTF spot contract, which closed at EUR15.655/MWh on Powernext, averaged EUR14.416/MWh, up by EUR4.32/MWh when compared to Oct19. The trend followed was overall bullish, supported by overall colder temperatures, extension of outages affecting a number of NOR gas fields, low nuclear availability and, eventually, a downward revision of temperatures for the beginning of Dec19 combined with a reduction in LNG sendouts.

Resulting from the above, FRA power baseload contract closed at EUR47.41/MWh on EPEX, averaging EUR45.94/MWh (+EUR7.33 when compared to Oct19). Also note that the contract hit its first ‘winter high’ of EUR64.20/MWh on Tue, Nov 19th, a day characterized by rather coal temperatures, very low nuclear availability and rather scarce wind power output. Its equivalent peak load contract closed at EUR52.68/MWh and averaged EUR51.75/MWh (+EUR7.75).

Re. month-ahead contracts, FRA Dec19 power baseload contract closed at EUR51.87/MWh, very close to its Nov 1st opening value. However, after following a bearish pattern on the back of mild temperatures during most of the first half of Nov19 and spot gas prices stabilizing around the EUR14.8/MWh mark, looming concerns over nuclear availability for the next couple of months combined with last week´s forecasts pointing to decreasing temperatures for the beginning of Dec19 reversed the trend. Its equivalent Jan20 contract pretty much followed the same pattern and eventually closed at EUR59.75/MWh.

Medium and long-term contracts:

Despite resulting in lower average values than those observed in Oct19, contracts on FRA power curve showed a similar behavior to those on the prompt / month-ahead front, ie. bearish up till Thu, Nov 21st and bullish thereafter. FRA Cal20 baseload contract´s behavior was torn between a slight downward move in both gas and EUA prices and some gains seen in coal and oil prices, and eventually closed at EUR49.14/MWh on EEX, the same value at which it closed on Oct 31st. It´s equivalent Cal21 contract was down by 53cts after closing at EUR48.42/MWh. As for quarterly contracts, FRA Q120 power baseload contract closed at EUR56.12/MWh, up by 72cts (which comes as no surprise given the combination of typically cold temperatures for that period and the delicate nuclear power scenario in sight). By contrast, its equivalent Q220 contract was down by EUR1.15 after closing at EUR40.39/MWh.
In terms of underlying fuel costs, TTF Cal20 gas contract closed at EUR16.090/MWh on Powernext, down by just 33cts from its closing value of Oct 31st. Though the contract moved around the EUR16.4/MWh mark, it saw a month peak of EUR17.001/MWh on Tue, Nov 5th, driven by expectations of colder weather settling in the following week, some NOR and RUS gas supply reductions and increased oil prices (Brent Jan20 delivery contract closed at $62.13/bbl, up by 78cts d-o-d). By contrast, the contract settled at a min. month value of EUR15.930/MWh on Wed, Nov 13th on the back of comfortable supply flows with steady pipeline imports from NOR and RUS and high LNG sendouts on the back of a busy delivery schedule combined with stable oil prices (Brent Jan20 delivery contract settled at $61.54/bbl). For its part, coal prices saw an overall increase of $1.62/Tn after API2 Cal20 contract closed at $65.54/Tn. This bullish trend was mostly due to the increase in coal consumption for electricity production derived from need to cover for low nuclear power availability. Finally, increased coal power production was likely the main reason for emission prices to stick to the EUR24.5-25.00/Tn mark. In addition, the last week of Nov19 saw EUA contracts increase to a certain extent as EUA Cal19 contract is shortly coming to its end (with speculative trading starting to become more frequent as market players need to close their open positions, as is usually the case at the end of a calendar year), and also following Ursula Von der Leyen´s will to propose a more ambitious 2030 EU emission target underpinning the EU ETS’ supply. EUA Cal20 contract closed at EUR25.22/Tn on the EEX, whereas its equivalent Cal21 contract closed at EUR25.36/MWh.

Mica Sternhagen