{"id":12140,"date":"2023-11-08T17:49:18","date_gmt":"2023-11-08T16:49:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/?p=12140"},"modified":"2025-07-22T10:37:49","modified_gmt":"2025-07-22T08:37:49","slug":"cobertura-energetica-invierno-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/es\/cobertura-energetica-invierno-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Una cobertura energ\u00e9tica fr\u00e1gil para este invierno"},"content":{"rendered":"

Una vez m\u00e1s estamos a las puertas del invierno y actores y consumidores empiezan a preguntarse sobre el aprovisionamiento energ\u00e9tico en Europa.<\/p>\n

Este a\u00f1o, a diferencia del pasado, no parece haber mayor preocupaci\u00f3n, los precios siguen siendo elevados, pero no hist\u00f3ricamente altos. Sin embargo, aunque no hay se\u00f1ales de alarma para este invierno, existe un equilibrio fr\u00e1gil entre demanda y suministro que puede en cualquier momento romperse, provocando que los precios de la electricidad se disparen<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

En particular, una de las piezas claves del suministro en Europa es la generaci\u00f3n nuclear francesa<\/strong>. En estos momentos[1]<\/a>, EDF prev\u00e9 que alrededor de 52.8 GW de potencia nuclear est\u00e9n disponibles en Francia durante los meses m\u00e1s fr\u00edos de la temporada invernal[2]<\/a>. Conociendo el optimismo de EDF, cabe preguntarse \u00bfHasta qu\u00e9 punto no existe realmente riesgo de aprovisionamiento?<\/strong><\/p>\n

En este art\u00edculo intentamos dar respuesta a esta pregunta.<\/p>\n

Situaci\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica en Europa<\/u><\/p>\n

Analicemos primero la situaci\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica europea: por un lado, las reservas de gas est\u00e1n en su nivel m\u00e1s alto para estas fechas de los \u00faltimos 5 a\u00f1os y, a pesar de la creciente demanda asi\u00e1tica de GNL, el suministro parece estar asegurado para este invierno. Las reservas hidr\u00e1ulicas en Europa est\u00e1n tambi\u00e9n en niveles superiores a los de hace un a\u00f1o, y la previsi\u00f3n de disponibilidad del parque nuclear franc\u00e9s, clave para la estabilidad de suministro el\u00e9ctrico en Europa Occidental, est\u00e1 cerca de m\u00e1ximos de los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n

Por otro lado, aunque el aprovisionamiento parece asegurado para las previsiones actuales, a\u00fan existe riesgo de alza de precios en el caso de un aumento de la demanda, sea por un invierno m\u00e1s fr\u00edo de lo normal o por un repunte de la actividad industrial. Dejando a un lado conflictos internacionales que puedan de nuevo desbaratar todas las previsiones, la seguridad energ\u00e9tica europea este invierno depende de un equilibrio delicado y es probable que veamos momentos de alta volatilidad en los precios.<\/p>\n

Disponibilidad nuclear en Francia<\/u><\/p>\n

Respecto a la flota nuclear francesa, no se ve\u00eda una previsi\u00f3n tan alta de la disponibilidad nuclear desde 2019, casi un 86 % del parque nuclear se prev\u00e9 est\u00e9 disponible (52.8GW) en los meses m\u00e1s fr\u00edos del invierno<\/strong>. Esta cifra supone casi un 12 % de la potencia total instalada en Europa Occidental y, en muchas ocasiones, los analistas olvidan el peso que tiene en el mercado europeo. Sin embargo, como ya analizamos en previas publicaciones [ver Newsletter: Energ\u00eda nuclear en Francia: un desaf\u00edo por delante<\/a><\/span>], las previsiones de EDF son, en el mejor de los casos, optimistas.<\/p>\n

El software Tracker Nuclear, desarrollado por los expertos de Haya Energy Solutions, realiza un seguimiento de disponibilidad del parque nuclear franc\u00e9s, es de inter\u00e9s para prever y comprender las reacciones de mercado<\/strong> \u2013 disponible en nuestra p\u00e1gina web: tracker-nuclear<\/a><\/span>. Gracias a esta herramienta podemos analizar el hist\u00f3rico de previsiones y constatar que las previsiones para los meses m\u00e1s fr\u00edos a principio de la temporada invernal (1 de noviembre) han sido de media un 14 % superiores a la realidad, lo que ha supuesto una diferencia media de -7.6 GW.<\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/p>\n

Estas diferencias se explican por dos causas principales:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Retrasos en la puesta en operaci\u00f3n de las centrales tras periodos de mantenimiento: incidencias m\u00faltiples relativas a los nuevos problemas encontrados durante el curso de los trabajos.<\/li>\n
  2. Indisponibilidades forzadas que no se pueden anticipar, que estad\u00edsticamente tienen un impacto menor.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Como puede verse en la gr\u00e1fica de debajo, generada a trav\u00e9s de Tracker <\/strong>Nuclear<\/strong>, EDF prev\u00e9 que hasta 15GW vuelvan a operaci\u00f3n durante el pr\u00f3ximo invierno, lo cual supone un riesgo sustancial en caso de retrasos o problemas:<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Si la tendencia observada en el pasado se mantiene, es decir previsiones superiores a la media, la disponibilidad actual de 52.8 GW pasar\u00eda a 45.4 GW. Esta reducci\u00f3n tendr\u00eda un impacto negativo sobre el fino equilibrio expuesto en p\u00e1rrafos anteriores, generando sin duda fuertes volatilidades en los precios frente a un aumento de la demanda energ\u00e9tica.<\/p>\n

    En cualquier caso, recomendamos a los actores del sector que sigan de cerca las evoluciones de las previsiones de EDF respecto al parque nuclear franc\u00e9s ya que prevemos ajustes a la baja en las pr\u00f3ximas semanas<\/strong>. A trav\u00e9s de nuestra herramienta Tracker <\/strong>Nuclear <\/strong>\u2013 disponible en nuestra p\u00e1gina web: tracker-nuclear<\/a><\/span>\u00a0\u2013 se puede seguir la evoluci\u00f3n semanal de la disponibilidad nuclear, lo que permite una visi\u00f3n sencilla pero precisa de c\u00f3mo EDF actualiza sus previsiones de disponibilidad.<\/p>\n

    Manuel Dom\u00ednguez Le\u00f3n<\/em><\/p>\n

    [1]<\/a> Previsi\u00f3n a 1 de noviembre de 2023<\/p>\n

    [2]<\/a> Diciembre, enero y febrero.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Una vez m\u00e1s estamos a las puertas del invierno y actores y consumidores empiezan a preguntarse sobre el aprovisionamiento energ\u00e9tico en Europa. Este a\u00f1o, a diferencia del pasado, no parece haber mayor preocupaci\u00f3n, los precios siguen siendo elevados, pero no hist\u00f3ricamente altos. Sin embargo, aunque no hay se\u00f1ales de alarma para este invierno, existe un […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":12137,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[52,42,56],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nUna cobertura energ\u00e9tica fr\u00e1gil para este invierno - 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