{"id":20989,"date":"2026-10-21T09:00:50","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T07:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/?p=20989"},"modified":"2026-10-21T09:00:50","modified_gmt":"2026-10-21T07:00:50","slug":"europes-energy-security-ahead-of-winter-2026-2027-less-room-for-manoeuvre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/es\/europes-energy-security-ahead-of-winter-2026-2027-less-room-for-manoeuvre\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe&#8217;s energy security ahead of winter 2026\u20132027: less room for manoeuvre?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As the cold season approaches, the awareness of an increase of heat demand brings security of supply back to the forefront. Continuing HES&#8217;s annual review, we examine the strengths and vulnerabilities of Europe&#8217;s energy system ahead of winter 2026\u20132027.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><strong>Conditions have changed since October 2025<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Our last analysis in October 2025, highlighted favourable winter preparedness, supported by a French nuclear fleet operating at high output, ample hydropower reserves and competitively priced liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports (see our newsletter article, <a href=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/es\/blog-2025-seguridad-del-suministro-europeo-antes-del-invierno\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: #339966;\">Energy supply security in Europe ahead of winter<\/span><\/a>). One year later, <strong>disruptions in the Middle East<\/strong> and <strong>gas storage levels below historical norms are altering this balance<\/strong>. Nevertheless, on 25<sup>th<\/sup> September, the European Commission confirmed that EU gas supplies remained stable. Diversified imports, expanded LNG capacity and lower demand support this resilience, although competition for scarce cargoes could increase the cost of maintaining it. The key question is therefore how well Europe can absorb <strong>several simultaneous pressures<\/strong>, and <strong>at what cost<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this article, we examine <strong>how Europe&#8217;s energy dependencies have evolved since 2022 energy crisis, how supply routes have adapted and what options remain to manage disruptions ahead of winter 2026-2027.<\/strong> We then analyse <strong>the role of gas systems<\/strong>, <strong>power generation capacity<\/strong> and <strong>flexibility resources<\/strong> to gauge the available margins in the face of winter shocks and the cost of maintaining security of supply.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><strong>From Russian gas to the global LNG market: a transformed dependency<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 2021, against a market backdrop already strained by the post-Covid recovery, Russia accounted for approximately <strong>40\u201347 % of European gas imports<\/strong>, mainly through pipelines, ahead of Norway. US LNG still played a secondary role, highlighting Europe\u2019s heavy reliance on Russian supplies.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The 2022 crisis in Ukraine accelerated supply diversification, particularly towards LNG, which accounted for <strong>45 % of European gas imports in 2025<\/strong>, of which <strong>58 % came from the United States<\/strong>. This shift reduced dependence on Russian pipelines but increased Europe\u2019s exposure to global gas markets and maritime transport risks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-20950\" src=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture1-1022x1024.png\" alt=\"European gas imports (bcm and %) after the 2022 crisis\" width=\"1008\" height=\"1010\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture1-1022x1024.png 1022w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture1-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture1-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture1-768x770.png 768w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture1-1533x1536.png 1533w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture1-2043x2048.png 2043w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1008px) 100vw, 1008px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>European gas imports (bcm and %) after the 2022 crisis \u2013 Source: Bruegel, based on ENTSOG, GIE and Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the charts above, Russian gas imports (approximately <strong>10.4 bcm in Q2 2026<\/strong>) include Russian LNG and deliveries through <strong>TurkStream<\/strong>, which cross Turkey and enter the EU via Bulgaria. These flows have continued under the EU\u2019s phased withdrawal: short-term LNG contracts were banned from 25<sup>th<\/sup> of April 2026 and short-term pipeline contracts from 17<sup>th<\/sup> of June 2026, followed by long-term LNG contracts from 1 January 2027 and long-term pipeline contracts from 30<sup>th<\/sup> of September 2027 (with a possible extension to 1 November).<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-20978 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture2-1-1024x690.png\" alt=\"European LNG imports ( %) after the 2022 crisis\" width=\"1000\" height=\"674\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture2-1-1024x690.png 1024w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture2-1-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture2-1-768x518.png 768w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture2-1-1536x1035.png 1536w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture2-1-2048x1380.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1000px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1000\/674;\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>European LNG imports ( %) after the 2022 crisis \u2013 Source: Eurostat<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The 2026 shock in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly <strong>20 % of global LNG supply<\/strong> previously passed, illustrates this vulnerability: in Q2 2026, the United States supplied <strong>63.2 % of European LNG (5 % more than 2025)<\/strong>, even as total volumes fell by 5.6 % compared with the 2025 average. LNG imports from other origins declined, notably from Qatar, whose share fell from <strong>10.1 % in Q4 2025<\/strong> to <strong>0.3 % in Q2 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Europe has reduced the concentration risk associated with Russian pipeline gas, but this has <strong>increased its exposure to fluctuations in the global LNG market.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><strong style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Alternative routes: different solutions for and gas<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Beyond supplier diversification, European energy security also depends on transport routes. As \u00a0discussed in our <span style=\"color: #339966;\"><a style=\"color: #339966;\" href=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/es\/aumentan-las-tensiones-en-el-estrecho-de-ormuz-impacto-en-los-precios-de-la-energia\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">March article on the Strait of Hormuz<\/a><\/span>, concentrating energy flows through a few strategic chokepoints leaves global markets exposed when regional conflicts disrupt these routes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-20956 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture3-1024x673.png\" alt=\"Middle East oil flows: key chokepoints and alternative routes \" width=\"1024\" height=\"673\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture3-1024x673.png 1024w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture3-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture3-768x505.png 768w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture3.png 1039w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/673;\" \/>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Middle East oil flows: key chokepoints and alternative routes \u2013 Source: HES diagram based on IEA and EIA data<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Saudi Arabia\u2019s East\u2013West pipeline (Yanbu) and the UAE\u2019s ADCOP pipeline (Fujairah) allow some oil exports to bypass Hormuz, but do not eliminate logistical risks. Their effectiveness depends on usable capacity and the security of onward shipping routes, particularly in the Red Sea and around Bab el-Mandeb and Suez. The resumption of loading at Yanbu in late September, following an interruption, illustrates this vulnerability: <strong>bypassing one strategic chokepoint can shift risk rather than eliminate it.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-20981 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture4-1-1024x622.png\" alt=\"Europe\u2019s gas import routes\" width=\"1024\" height=\"622\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture4-1-1024x622.png 1024w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture4-1-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture4-1-768x466.png 768w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture4-1.png 1148w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/622;\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Europe\u2019s gas import routes \u2013 Source: HES diagram based on ENTSOG, IEA and ACER data<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Europe now has a diversified gas supply network, combining Norwegian, Algerian and Azerbaijani pipelines, residual Russian deliveries via TurkStream and LNG imports. <strong>This diversification increases system flexibility, but Europe remains exposed to international tensions<\/strong>, particularly for Qatari LNG, whose exports completely depend on transit through Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><strong style=\"font-size: 16px;\">How has the energy system absorbed such a major shock?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The disruption to the global energy system this year has been substantial. Its scale might have suggested widespread supply shortages. This has not happened, thanks to several buffering mechanisms.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">First, additional supply from outside the Gulf has been boosted by the ramp-up of projects in North America and Africa. According to the IEA, between March and June 2026, <strong>LNG production outside the Gulf increased by around 27 bcm year on year<\/strong>, offsetting nearly three-quarters of the <strong>35 bcm lost from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates<\/strong>. The global shortfall was therefore limited to around 8 bcm over the period.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-20962 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture5.png\" alt=\"Global LNG: losses and offsetting supply (bcm) \" width=\"903\" height=\"413\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture5.png 750w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture5-300x137.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 903px) 100vw, 903px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 903px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 903\/413;\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Global LNG: losses and offsetting supply (bcm) \u2013 Source: IEA<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>\u00a0<\/em>Second, in Asia, the IEA notes fuel switching and consumption reductions in response to high prices. In China, <strong>LNG imports fell by 12 % year on year<\/strong> as domestic production increased.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-20965 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture6.png\" alt=\"China\u2019s total gas demand and LNG imports\" width=\"888\" height=\"399\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture6.png 750w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture6-300x135.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 888px) 100vw, 888px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 888px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 888\/399;\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>China\u2019s total gas demand and LNG imports \u2013 Source: IEA<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The outlook remains uncertain, however: <strong>in its 24<sup>th<\/sup> September analysis, Kpler expected Chinese demand to rebound in the fourth quarter<\/strong>, driven by heating needs and less favourable domestic and pipeline supply. By contrast, <strong>Argus expects Chinese spot LNG demand to remain limited this winter<\/strong>, supported by domestic production, Russian supplies, and potentially milder temperatures. In Japan, stronger nuclear generation and increased coal use could also reduce LNG imports by around one million tons.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>For Europe, the evolution of Asian demand will be a key factor:<\/strong> weaker demand could ease competition for flexible cargoes and help limit prices, while a rebound in consumption\u2014particularly in the event of simultaneous cold weather\u2014would increase pressure on the European market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">These mechanisms have bought time, but their limitations are becoming critical: Europe must be able to get through winter even if Asian demand rebounds and inventories continue to fall. Our November newsletter will provide a detailed overview of the LNG market.<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li><strong>Winter outlook: securing energy, meeting peak demand and managing costs<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Security of supply rests on three complementary requirements: <strong>having enough energy throughout the season<\/strong>, <strong>mobilising sufficient capacity at critical hours<\/strong> and <strong>delivering that energy to consumers<\/strong>. Storage levels, generation capacity and flexibility must therefore be assessed together.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-20968 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture7.png\" alt=\"European gas storage filling levels (%)\" width=\"752\" height=\"452\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture7.png 752w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture7-300x180.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 752px) 100vw, 752px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 752px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 752\/452;\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>European gas storage filling levels (%) \u2013 Source: AGSIE<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">On 1<sup>st<\/sup> of October, EU gas storage facilities held approximately <strong>811 TWh, equivalent to 72 % of capacity<\/strong>, compared with <strong>940 TWh and 83 %<\/strong> a year earlier. This gap narrows the buffer ahead of winter withdrawals. ENTSOG published its winter supply outlook on 8<sup>th<\/sup> October. According to the report, to meet demand during <strong>a severe winter<\/strong> while maintaining storage at <strong>20 % at the end of winter<\/strong>, Europe would require <strong>around 124 bcm of additional LNG supply<\/strong>, that is nearly <strong>50 % more<\/strong> than the 83 billion imported last winter, which was already a record. Under baseline winter demand and minimised Russian pipeline flows, end-March storage levels would reach <strong>29 % in the \u201cLNG Optimal\u201d scenario, compared with 13 % in \u201cLNG Tight\u201d<\/strong> A \u201cLNG tight\u201d scenario assumes 20 % less LNG availability and a cold winter would increase pression further.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Furthermore, the scope for offsetting supply via gas pipelines remains limited: according to Argus, Norwegian exports to the rest of Europe are expected to rise only marginally this winter, whilst Algeria is said to have little spare capacity, apart from a slight increase in deliveries to Spain.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">French nuclear availability is a key link between electricity and gas security this winter. Argus reports schedule 52.2 GW available for the remaining winter period, 2.9 GW below a year earlier, with outage concentrated in Q4. Delivery remains uncertain: last winter, scheduled unavailability was revised upwards by around 5 GW. EDF maintains its annual production forecast of 350\u2013370 TWh for both 2026 and 2027, but this does not guarantee availability during winter peaks. Restart delays would increase reliance on other resources, including combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs), raising gas demand and potentially prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-20984 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture8-1-1024x718.png\" alt=\"Nuclear availability and generation\" width=\"1024\" height=\"718\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture8-1-1024x718.png 1024w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture8-1-300x210.png 300w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture8-1-768x539.png 768w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture8-1.png 1220w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/718;\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Nuclear availability and generation \u2013 Source: RTE; generation forecasts \u2013 Source: HES<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">European hydropower reserves stood at <strong>116 TWh on 12<sup>th<\/sup> October<\/strong>, below the seasonal norm and the levels observed in 2024 and 2025. This reduces power-system flexibility ahead of winter, particularly when covering demand peaks. With wind generation already low, or in the event of severe cold, <strong>greater reliance on thermal power plants and imports could intensify upward pressure on electricity prices. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Argus reports exceptionally low seasonal reservoirs in France and Switzerland, alongside Austrian run-of-river generation at its lowest in over nine years. These conditions could increase neighbouring countries\u2019 reliance on German thermal generation and exports this winter.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-20974 lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture9.png\" alt=\"European hydropower reserves: aggregate of Spain, Italy, France, Switzerland and the Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden and Finland)\" width=\"906\" height=\"482\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture9.png 750w, https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Picture9-300x160.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 906px) 100vw, 906px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 906px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 906\/482;\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>European hydropower reserves: aggregate of Spain, Italy, France, Switzerland and the Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden and Finland) \u2013 Source: ENTSO-E<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Cross-border electricity support also depends on neighbouring countries\u2019 available resources and interconnection capacity. This security also comes at a cost, as discussed in our September newsletter (<a href=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/es\/blog-2026-coste-seguridad-suministro-europa\/\"><strong>How much does it cost to ensure security of supply in Europe?<\/strong><\/a>). Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 gas and electricity contracts should be compared at equivalent delivery periods. Higher prices may reflect more expensive fuel or greater uncertainty; they do not directly indicate the probability of a shortage.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Finally, NOAA\u2019s 8<sup>th<\/sup> October bulletin confirms a strengthening of El Ni\u00f1o for autumn\u2013winter 2026\u20132027. This global signal provides additional context alongside European forecasts. Its effects on the global LNG market could be mixed. A milder winter in Asia, particularly in China, could reduce heating demand, ease competition for available cargoes, and alleviate pressure on European prices. Conversely, drought conditions in Latin America could reduce hydropower generation and increase gas import needs, while the navigation restrictions already observed in the Panama Canal could complicate certain supply routes. The overall impact will therefore depend on the balance between these different effects.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As winter 2026\u20132027 approaches, Europe retains room to adapt but remains vulnerable to a build-up of supply- and demand-side pressures. <strong>In the long term, the challenge is not to eliminate interdependence but to reduce the energy system\u2019s exposure to external risks<\/strong>, gradual transition that every new crisis will put to the test. In our next article, we will have an overview on LNG and its disruptions after the conflict.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><em>F\u00e9licit\u00e9 Male Segnou<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the cold season approaches, the awareness of an increase of heat demand brings security of supply back to the forefront. Continuing HES&#8217;s annual review, we examine the strengths and vulnerabilities of Europe&#8217;s energy system ahead of winter 2026\u20132027. Conditions have changed since October 2025 Our last analysis in October 2025, highlighted favourable winter preparedness, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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