{"id":10943,"date":"2023-07-05T12:30:26","date_gmt":"2023-07-05T10:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/gas-how-ready-is-europe-for-winter-2023-24\/"},"modified":"2025-03-12T11:13:42","modified_gmt":"2025-03-12T10:13:42","slug":"gaz-hiver-2023-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/fr\/gaz-hiver-2023-24\/","title":{"rendered":"Gaz : l\u2019Europe est-elle pr\u00eate \u00e0 affronter l\u2019hiver 2023\/2024?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00c0 la suite de l\u2019attaque russe contre l\u2019Ukraine en f\u00e9vrier 2022, les march\u00e9s europ\u00e9ens du gaz ont connu une p\u00e9riode de fortes turbulences. La crainte de stockages vides et de p\u00e9nurie de gaz pour l\u2019hiver 2022\/2023 a propuls\u00e9 les prix \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 350\u20ac\/MWh, \u00e0 la fin du mois d\u2019ao\u00fbt 2022.<\/p>\n

Un an plus tard, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 un recours massif au GNL en provenance des Etats-Unis, \u00e0 de fortes r\u00e9ductions de la consommation (domestique et industrielle) et \u00e0 un hiver doux, la situation semble \u00eatre revenue \u00e0 celle qui pr\u00e9valait jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la mi-2021 \u2013 lorsque la Russie a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 r\u00e9duire subrepticement ses livraisons de gaz \u00e0 l\u2019Europe, six mois avant son attaque contre l\u2019Ukraine.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

De nombreuses mesures ont \u00e9t\u00e9 prises, tant au niveau de l\u2019UE qu\u2019au niveau national, pour se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 l\u2019hiver prochain. Mais la situation est-elle aussi ma\u00eetris\u00e9e qu\u2019il n\u2019y para\u00eet\u00a0?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lanc\u00e9 en mai 2022, le plan REPowerEU a aid\u00e9 l\u2019UE \u00e0 se pr\u00e9parer pour remplacer les importations de gaz russe (voir Newsletter de juin 2022 : REPowerEU : Les co\u00fbts \u00ab verts \u00bb et \u00e9conomiques sont-ils en jeu\u00a0?<\/a><\/span><\/span>). Parmi ses principales r\u00e9ussites, l\u2019UE a r\u00e9duit sa d\u00e9pendance \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des combustibles fossiles russes, diminu\u00e9 sa consommation d\u2019\u00e9nergie de pr\u00e8s de 20% (15% pour le gaz) et introduit un m\u00e9canisme de plafonnement du prix du gaz.<\/p>\n

Depuis septembre 2022, le gaz russe ne repr\u00e9sente plus que 8% de l\u2019ensemble du gaz import\u00e9 par pipeline dans l\u2019UE, contre 41% d\u2019importations russes dans l\u2019UE en ao\u00fbt 2021.<\/p>\n

Une plateforme commune d\u2019achat de gaz a \u00e9t\u00e9 mise en place, ce qui a permis \u00e0 l\u2019UE d\u2019attirer des offres de la part de 25 fournisseurs, en mai dernier, soit l\u2019\u00e9quivalent de plus de 13,4 milliards de m\u00e8tres cubes de gaz.<\/p>\n

Mais surtout, l\u2019UE a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de remplir ses stockages souterrains de gaz \u00e0 90% de leur capacit\u00e9 d\u2019ici le 1er<\/sup> novembre de chaque ann\u00e9e. L\u2019atteinte de cet objectif est en bonne voie avant l\u2019hiver prochain\u00a0:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Suivi des perspectives d\u2019approvisionnement saisonni\u00e8res – Source ENTSOG<\/em><\/p>\n

Cela suffira-t-il ? Il est peu probable que la consommation de gaz continue \u00e0 baisser comme l\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re \u2013 la consommation de gaz dans l\u2019industrie a \u00e9t\u00e9 fortement touch\u00e9e en raison de l\u2019anticipation de prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s, et l\u2019hiver a \u00e9t\u00e9 doux. Un hiver froid serait une mauvaise surprise.<\/p>\n

Le niveau de la demande de gaz pour la production d\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 jouera \u00e9galement un r\u00f4le important \u2013 l\u2019hiver dernier, l\u2019indisponibilit\u00e9 du parc nucl\u00e9aire fran\u00e7ais d\u2019EDF a aggrav\u00e9 les probl\u00e8mes. Et, il y a encore 22 r\u00e9acteurs indisponibles, \u00e0 l\u2019heure actuelle, sur les 56 exploit\u00e9s par EDF.<\/p>\n

Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l\u2019offre, de nouveaux terminaux GNL seront mis en service cet hiver, \u00e0 commencer par l\u2019installation de stockage et de d\u00e9chargement flottante de gaz de TotalEnergies au Havre, pr\u00e9vue pour septembre.<\/p>\n

Cependant, les prix du GNL sont internationaux et d\u00e9pendent de l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le gaz dans d\u2019autres parties du monde, en particulier en Asie. La Chine conna\u00eet actuellement une reprise \u00e9conomique stimul\u00e9e par la fin des restrictions de la Covid, mais elle semble encore quelque peu fragile. Le degr\u00e9 de cette reprise jouera un r\u00f4le important dans le niveau des prix du GNL.<\/p>\n

L\u2019Europe est \u00e9galement extr\u00eamement d\u00e9pendante des importations de gaz norv\u00e9gien. Des probl\u00e8mes \u00e0 l\u2019usine de GNL norv\u00e9gienne de Sn\u00f8vit, ainsi que des travaux de maintenance sur des installations de production de gaz sur le plateau norv\u00e9gien, ont r\u00e9cemment conduit \u00e0 des restrictions des flux de gaz vers l\u2019Europe, d\u00e9clenchant une remont\u00e9e des prix du gaz. Cela nous rappelle \u00e0 quel point l\u2019Europe est expos\u00e9e au moindre incident dans ce pays, pour remplacer le gaz russe.<\/p>\n

Enfin, au niveau fran\u00e7ais, l\u2019interruption des importations de gaz russe depuis l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 dernier a donn\u00e9 lieu \u00e0 une carte des flux gaziers jamais anticip\u00e9e auparavant :<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Carte des flux gaziers – Source GRTgaz<\/em><\/p>\n

Les restrictions de flux sont d\u00e9sormais observ\u00e9es dans la direction du sud-ouest vers le nord-est, alors que les limites de congestion du r\u00e9seau se produisaient auparavant dans le sens inverse. Une gestion prudente des soutirages de gaz en stock devra \u00eatre mise en \u0153uvre afin de pr\u00e9server les r\u00e9serves de gaz dans les stockages du nord, tout en maximisant les retraits dans le sud-ouest.<\/p>\n

Globalement, un maximum de pr\u00e9cautions a d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 pris pour se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 l\u2019hiver prochain, mais beaucoup reste encore \u00e0 faire. Il n\u2019y a pas de filet de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 et le moindre probl\u00e8me impr\u00e9vu du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l\u2019offre, comme par exemple des perturbations en Norv\u00e8ge, un d\u00e9placement du GNL vers l\u2019Asie, ou du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la demande, comme par exemple un hiver tr\u00e8s froid, une forte demande de gaz pour la production d\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 pour compenser la production nucl\u00e9aire, pourrait entrainer de forts mouvements des prix. Il est fort probable que les prix du gaz conna\u00eetront, \u00e0 nouveau, une importante volatilit\u00e9 cet hiver\u2026 malheureusement\u00a0!<\/p>\n

Philippe Lamboley<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c0 la suite de l\u2019attaque russe contre l\u2019Ukraine en f\u00e9vrier 2022, les march\u00e9s europ\u00e9ens du gaz ont connu une p\u00e9riode de fortes turbulences. La crainte de stockages vides et de p\u00e9nurie de gaz pour l\u2019hiver 2022\/2023 a propuls\u00e9 les prix \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 350\u20ac\/MWh, \u00e0 la fin du mois d\u2019ao\u00fbt 2022. Un an plus tard, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":10951,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[55,31],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nGaz : l\u2019Europe est-elle pr\u00eate \u00e0 affronter l\u2019hiver 2023\/2024? - Haya Energy Solutions<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/fr\/gaz-hiver-2023-24\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gaz : l\u2019Europe est-elle pr\u00eate \u00e0 affronter l\u2019hiver 2023\/2024? - Haya Energy Solutions\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00c0 la suite de l\u2019attaque russe contre l\u2019Ukraine en f\u00e9vrier 2022, les march\u00e9s europ\u00e9ens du gaz ont connu une p\u00e9riode de fortes turbulences. 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