{"id":12139,"date":"2023-11-08T19:02:13","date_gmt":"2023-11-08T18:02:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/?p=12139"},"modified":"2025-01-29T13:27:03","modified_gmt":"2025-01-29T12:27:03","slug":"couverture-energetique-hiver-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/fr\/couverture-energetique-hiver-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Une couverture \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique fragile pour cet hiver"},"content":{"rendered":"

Une fois de plus, nous sommes aux portes de l’hiver et les acteurs et consommateurs commencent \u00e0 s’interroger sur l’approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique en Europe.<\/p>\n

Cette ann\u00e9e, contrairement \u00e0 l’ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, il ne semble pas y avoir d’inqui\u00e9tude majeure\u00a0; les prix restent \u00e9lev\u00e9s, mais non historiquement \u00e9lev\u00e9s. Cependant, bien qu’il n’y ait pas de signal d’alarme pour cet hiver, il existe un \u00e9quilibre fragile entre l’offre et la demande qui peut \u00e0 tout moment se briser et provoquer une flamb\u00e9e des prix de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Notamment, l’une des principales sources d’approvisionnement en Europe est la production nucl\u00e9aire fran\u00e7aise<\/strong>. \u00c0 l’heure actuelle[1]<\/a>, EDF pr\u00e9voit qu’environ 52,8 GW d’\u00e9nergie nucl\u00e9aire seront disponibles en France pendant les mois les plus froids de la saison hivernale[2]<\/a>. Compte tenu de l’optimisme connu d’EDF, on peut se demande : \u00e0 quel point n’y a-t-il pas de risque d’approvisionnement\u00a0?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dans cet article, nous tentons de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 cette question.<\/p>\n

Situation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique en Europe<\/u><\/p>\n

Analysons tout d’abord la situation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique europ\u00e9enne : d’une part, les r\u00e9serves de gaz sont \u00e0 leur plus haut niveau pour cette p\u00e9riode de l’ann\u00e9e depuis 5 ans et cela malgr\u00e9 la demande asiatique croissante de GNL, l’approvisionnement semble assur\u00e9 pour cet hiver. D\u2019autre part, les r\u00e9serves hydrauliques en Europe sont \u00e9galement \u00e0 des niveaux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s que l\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re. De plus, la disponibilit\u00e9 pr\u00e9vue du parc nucl\u00e9aire fran\u00e7ais, essentielle pour la stabilit\u00e9 de l’approvisionnement d\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 en Europe occidentale, est proche des niveaux les plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s de ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

En revanche, si l’approvisionnement semble assur\u00e9 pour les pr\u00e9visions actuelles, le risque de hausse des prix demeure en cas d’augmentation de la demande, en raison d’un hiver plus froid que la normale ou d’une reprise de l’activit\u00e9 industrielle. Si l’on fait abstraction des conflits internationaux qui pourraient \u00e0 nouveau bouleverser toutes les pr\u00e9visions, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique europ\u00e9enne repose cet hiver sur un \u00e9quilibre subtil et il est probable qu\u2019il y ait des moments de forte volatilit\u00e9 des prix.<\/p>\n

Disponibilit\u00e9 du parc nucl\u00e9aire en France<\/u><\/p>\n

En ce qui concerne le parc nucl\u00e9aire fran\u00e7ais, la pr\u00e9vision de disponibilit\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire n\u2019avait jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi \u00e9lev\u00e9e depuis 2019\u00a0; pr\u00e8s de 86 % du parc nucl\u00e9aire devrait \u00eatre disponible (52,8 GW) durant les mois les plus froids de l’hiver<\/strong>. Ce chiffre repr\u00e9sente pr\u00e8s de 12 % de la capacit\u00e9 totale install\u00e9e en Europe occidentale – \u00e0 de nombreuses reprises, les analystes oublient le poids qu’il a sur le march\u00e9 europ\u00e9en. Cependant, comme nous l’avons analys\u00e9 lors de publications pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes [voir Newsletter : L\u2019\u00e9nergie nucl\u00e9aire en France : un d\u00e9fi en perspective<\/a><\/span>], les pr\u00e9visions d’EDF sont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement pour le moins optimistes.<\/p>\n

Le logiciel Tracker Nucl\u00e9aire<\/strong>, d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 par les experts de Haya Energy Solutions, permet de suivre la disponibilit\u00e9 du parc nucl\u00e9aire fran\u00e7ais, ceci est d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour pr\u00e9voir et comprendre les r\u00e9actions du march\u00e9 \u2013 disponible sur notre page web: tracker-nucl\u00e9aire<\/span><\/a>. Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 cet outil, nous pouvons analyser les pr\u00e9visions historiques et constater que les pr\u00e9visions pour les mois les plus froids du d\u00e9but de la saison hivernale (1er novembre) \u00e9taient en moyenne 14 % plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es que la r\u00e9alit\u00e9, soit un \u00e9cart moyen de -7,6 GW.<\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/p>\n

Ces diff\u00e9rences s’expliquent par deux raisons principales :<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Retards dans la mise en service des installations apr\u00e8s les p\u00e9riodes de maintenance : multiples incidents li\u00e9s \u00e0 de nouveaux probl\u00e8mes rencontr\u00e9s lors des travaux.<\/li>\n
  2. Indisponibilit\u00e9s forc\u00e9es qui ne peuvent \u00eatre anticip\u00e9es et qui, statistiquement, ont un impact mineur.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Comme le montre le graphique ci-dessous, g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 par le logiciel Tracker Nucl\u00e9aire<\/strong>, EDF s’attend \u00e0 ce que jusqu’\u00e0 15 GW soient remis en service au cours de l’hiver prochain, ce qui repr\u00e9sente un risque important en cas de retards ou de probl\u00e8mes :<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Si la tendance observ\u00e9e dans le pass\u00e9 se maintient, c’est-\u00e0-dire des pr\u00e9visions sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 la moyenne, la disponibilit\u00e9 actuelle de 52,8 GW tomberait \u00e0 45,4 GW. Cette r\u00e9duction de aurait un impact n\u00e9gatif sur l’\u00e9quilibre fragile d\u00e9crit dans les paragraphes pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents, g\u00e9n\u00e9rant sans aucun doute une forte volatilit\u00e9 des prix face \u00e0 une augmentation de la demande d’\u00e9nergie.<\/p>\n

    Dans tous les cas, nous recommandons aux acteurs du secteur de suivre de pr\u00e8s l’\u00e9volution des pr\u00e9visions d’EDF pour le parc nucl\u00e9aire fran\u00e7ais car nous pr\u00e9voyons des ajustements \u00e0 la baisse dans les semaines \u00e0 venir<\/strong>. Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 notre outil Tracker Nucl\u00e9aire<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 <\/strong>disponible sur notre page web: tracker-nucl\u00e9aire<\/span><\/a> \u2013<\/strong> vous pouvez suivre l’\u00e9volution hebdomadaire du parc nucl\u00e9aire pour avoir une vision simple mais pr\u00e9cise des mises \u00e0 jour des pr\u00e9visions de disponibilit\u00e9 d\u2019EDF.<\/p>\n

    Manuel Dom\u00ednguez Le\u00f3n<\/em><\/p>\n

    [1]<\/a> Pr\u00e9visions au 1er novembre 2023<\/p>\n

    [2]<\/a> D\u00e9cembre, janvier et f\u00e9vrier.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Une fois de plus, nous sommes aux portes de l’hiver et les acteurs et consommateurs commencent \u00e0 s’interroger sur l’approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique en Europe. Cette ann\u00e9e, contrairement \u00e0 l’ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, il ne semble pas y avoir d’inqui\u00e9tude majeure\u00a0; les prix restent \u00e9lev\u00e9s, mais non historiquement \u00e9lev\u00e9s. Cependant, bien qu’il n’y ait pas de signal d’alarme pour […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":12136,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[50,55,31],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nUne couverture \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique fragile pour cet hiver - Haya Energy Solutions<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/fr\/couverture-energetique-hiver-2023\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Une couverture \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique fragile pour cet hiver - Haya Energy Solutions\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Une fois de plus, nous sommes aux portes de l’hiver et les acteurs et consommateurs commencent \u00e0 s’interroger sur l’approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique en Europe. 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Cette ann\u00e9e, contrairement \u00e0 l’ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, il ne semble pas y avoir d’inqui\u00e9tude majeure\u00a0; les prix restent \u00e9lev\u00e9s, mais non historiquement \u00e9lev\u00e9s. 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