{"id":13397,"date":"2024-04-18T16:14:22","date_gmt":"2024-04-18T14:14:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/analyse-de-lhiver-2022-23-vs-2023-24-espagne-et-france\/"},"modified":"2025-03-27T17:59:01","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T16:59:01","slug":"analyse-lhiver-2022-23-vs-2023-24-es-fr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/fr\/analyse-lhiver-2022-23-vs-2023-24-es-fr\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyse de l’hiver 2022\/23 vs 2023\/24: Espagne et France"},"content":{"rendered":"

L’hiver 2023\/2024 a \u00e9t\u00e9 quelque peu tendu, bien que es prix de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ont baiss\u00e9 aussi bien en France qu\u2019en Espagne par rapport \u00e0 l’hiver dernier, conform\u00e9ment \u00e0 la confiance accrue du march\u00e9 \u00e0 la suite des mesures prises par l’UE pour lutter contre la crise \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. Il est \u00e0 noter que l’Espagne a connu plus de volatilit\u00e9 des prix que la France cet hiver.<\/p>\n

L’analyse du march\u00e9 fran\u00e7ais hiver 2022 vs hiver 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n

L’hiver 2022 et l’hiver 2023 sur le march\u00e9 fran\u00e7ais de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ont mis en \u00e9vidence des tendances distinctes en mati\u00e8re de demande, de sources de production et de prix de march\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Demande :<\/p>\n

L’hiver 2022 a commenc\u00e9 par une augmentation de la demande en novembre en raison du temps plus froid, atteignant une moyenne de 57,1 GW, et a culmin\u00e9 \u00e0 66,8 GW en d\u00e9cembre en raison d’une vague de froid, mais a ensuite diminu\u00e9 tout au long du mois de d\u00e9cembre et en janvier lorsque le temps s’est av\u00e9r\u00e9 doux. La demande a de nouveau augment\u00e9 plus tard en janvier et f\u00e9vrier, avant de chuter \u00e0 nouveau \u00e0 la fin de f\u00e9vrier.<\/p>\n

En revanche, l’hiver 2023 a connu des hausses notables de la demande tout au long des premiers mois de la saison, le mois de novembre ayant connu une augmentation significative gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une consommation de pointe plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e, suivi d’un pic de d\u00e9cembre encore plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 \u00e0 73,4 GW malgr\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions hivernales douces. Janvier 2024 a maintenu des niveaux de demande \u00e9lev\u00e9s, atteignant 70,4 GW en p\u00e9riode normale, et culminant \u00e0 83,5 GW. Nous avons constat\u00e9 une baisse de la demande en f\u00e9vrier, avec une moyenne de 62,3 GW pendant les maximums et avec un pic de 68 GW. En mars, nous avons \u00e9galement connu une baisse significative de la consommation, avec une moyenne de 57,9 GW pendant les maximums.<\/p>\n

Dans l’ensemble, bien que le d\u00e9but de cet hiver ait connu des pics importants, la demande s’est stabilis\u00e9e au cours des derniers mois en raison d’un temps plus doux.\u00a0 Par cons\u00e9quent, \u00e0 partir de f\u00e9vrier, la demande d’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 nettement inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle de l’ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, malgr\u00e9 des prix de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 plus abordables.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Consommation d’\u00e9nergie en France, hiver 2022 vs hiver 2023<\/em><\/p>\n

\"NWSL#68EN\"<\/p>\n

Sources : RTE<\/em><\/p>\n

Impact de la production sur la demande :<\/p>\n

Au cours de l’hiver 2022, les niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s de la demande ont \u00e9t\u00e9 satisfaits gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l’augmentation de la production de gaz et de charbon, tandis que les \u00e9nergies renouvelables ont fluctu\u00e9 tout au long de la p\u00e9riode hivernale. L’approvisionnement en \u00e9nergie nucl\u00e9aire est rest\u00e9 faible en raison de travaux de maintenance.\u00a0 Sous l’effet de la baisse de la production d’\u00e9nergies renouvelables, la production d’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 au gaz a atteint un sommet en f\u00e9vrier. En mars, le nucl\u00e9aire a consid\u00e9rablement vari\u00e9 en raison des indisponibilit\u00e9s et des gr\u00e8ves, tandis que la production de gaz et de charbon a diminu\u00e9. Les \u00e9nergies renouvelables, en particulier l’\u00e9nergie \u00e9olienne, ont jou\u00e9 un r\u00f4le plus important en mars.<\/p>\n

L’hiver 2023 a montr\u00e9 une stabilit\u00e9 de la production d’\u00e9nergie nucl\u00e9aire et de gaz, tout en observant une diminution de l’utilisation du charbon. Cependant, les pr\u00e9visions de production nucl\u00e9aire de EdF pr\u00e9voyaient syst\u00e9matiquement une production plus importante tout au long de la saison que la production qui s\u2019est effectivement r\u00e9alis\u00e9e (ceci est le cas chaque ann\u00e9e pratiquement). Les \u00e9nergies renouvelables ont jou\u00e9 un r\u00f4le important, en particuli\u00e8rement l’\u00e9olien, qui a augment\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re significative, comme en d\u00e9cembre o\u00f9 il a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les 20 % du mix. Dans l’ensemble, la part du mix de production de l’hiver 2023 ces \u00e9nergies renouvelables et du nucl\u00e9aire ont augment\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 l’ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, tandis que le gaz est rest\u00e9 relativement stable mais faible.<\/p>\n

Production nucl\u00e9aire en France, hiver 2022 vs hiver 2023<\/em><\/p>\n

\"NWSL#68\"<\/p>\n

Sources : RTE<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Production nucl\u00e9aire de l’hiver 2023\/2024 : pr\u00e9visions r\u00e9elles vs RTE <\/em><\/p>\n

\"NWSLT#68\"<\/p>\n

Source : RTE, HES<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Prix de march\u00e9 :<\/p>\n

L’hiver 2022 a \u00e9t\u00e9 marqu\u00e9 par d’importantes fluctuations des prix dues \u00e0 des niveaux de stockages gaz inad\u00e9quats, \u00e0 des incertitudes sur l’approvisionnement en gaz dues \u00e0 l’invasion de l’Ukraine et aux sanctions qui en ont d\u00e9coul\u00e9 et aussi \u00e0 cause d\u2019une une capacit\u00e9 d’\u00e9nergie install\u00e9e relativement limit\u00e9e pendant les p\u00e9riodes de pointe, en particulier en raison d’indisponibilit\u00e9s nucl\u00e9aires non pr\u00e9vues dues \u00e0 des probl\u00e8mes de corrosion. Les prix des contrats de gaz avaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 consid\u00e9rablement augment\u00e9 au cours de l’\u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent et, bien qu’ils aient diminu\u00e9 par la suite, les niveaux de prix sont rest\u00e9s globalement \u00e9lev\u00e9s, ce qui a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 des prix de l’\u00e9nergie exceptionnellement \u00e9lev\u00e9s aussi. En revanche, l’hiver 2023, gr\u00e2ce au d\u00e9veloppement de la cha\u00eene d’approvisionnement en GNL et aux niveaux de stockage gaz \u00e9lev\u00e9s, a vu les prix du gaz baisser et, par cons\u00e9quent, \u00e9galement gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l’augmentation de la disponibilit\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire fran\u00e7aise, a \u00e9galement vu des prix de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 beaucoup plus bas.\u00a0 Ces deux p\u00e9riodes hivernales mettent en \u00e9vidence la complexit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 de l’\u00e9nergie, avec des fluctuations \u00e0 court terme dues \u00e0 des facteurs imm\u00e9diats, que nous avons vus dans la section sur la production et la demande de cet article, et \u00e0 des tendances \u00e0 long terme fa\u00e7onn\u00e9es par des pr\u00e9occupations g\u00e9opolitiques et des sanctions, et en outre aussi les d\u00e9fauts de pr\u00e9visions de disponibilit\u00e9 des centrales nucl\u00e9aires d\u2019EdF.<\/p>\n

Au cours des premiers mois de l’hiver 2023, les prix de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ont augment\u00e9 en raison de l’augmentation de la demande.\u00a0 Les prix du gaz et du p\u00e9trole sont rest\u00e9s en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral stables, \u00e0 l’exception du charbon qui a connu des hausses significatives.<\/p>\n

Prix spot de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 en France, hiver 2022 vs hiver 2023<\/em><\/p>\n

\"HES_Graphic\"Source : EPEX<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Comparaison des prix spot de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 France et Espagne, hiver 2022 vs hiver 2023<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source : OMIE\u00a0; EPEX (Anglais seulement)<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Diego Marroqu\u00edn Gonz\u00e1lez<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L’hiver 2023\/2024 a \u00e9t\u00e9 quelque peu tendu, bien que es prix de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ont baiss\u00e9 aussi bien en France qu\u2019en Espagne par rapport \u00e0 l’hiver dernier, conform\u00e9ment \u00e0 la confiance accrue du march\u00e9 \u00e0 la suite des mesures prises par l’UE pour lutter contre la crise \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. Il est \u00e0 noter que l’Espagne a connu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":13382,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[51,55,31],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nAnalyse de l'hiver 2022\/23 vs 2023\/24: Espagne et France - Haya Energy Solutions<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hayaenergy.com\/fr\/analyse-lhiver-2022-23-vs-2023-24-es-fr\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analyse de l'hiver 2022\/23 vs 2023\/24: Espagne et France - Haya Energy Solutions\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"L’hiver 2023\/2024 a \u00e9t\u00e9 quelque peu tendu, bien que es prix de l’\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ont baiss\u00e9 aussi bien en France qu\u2019en Espagne par rapport \u00e0 l’hiver dernier, conform\u00e9ment \u00e0 la confiance accrue du march\u00e9 \u00e0 la suite des mesures prises par l’UE pour lutter contre la crise \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique. 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