Spanish Market Analysis
Analysis of the Spanish energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in Spain and in other relevant markets such as France.
Table of Contents
November 2024
Evolution of demand and production mix
In November, renewable energy sources accounted for 50.78% of the total energy production. Specifically, wind energy contributed 23.4%, hydropower 13.4%, photovoltaics 11.5%, and nuclear energy 17.6%. These figures highlight a decrease in wind generation, which during the first half of the month was 60% lower than the average recorded over the last five years, as well as a reduction in nuclear energy production due to scheduled shutdowns of Ascó I and Ascó II. As a result, combined cycle plants increased their share in the production mix, reaching 19.4%, a 50% rise compared to the previous month.
The total energy generated during the month amounted to 20,599 GWh. Regarding electricity demand, a decrease was recorded, dropping from 20,135 GWh in October to 19,724 GWh in November. A similar trend is observed when compared to the same period of the previous year, when demand stood at 19,993 GWh.
The average electricity price in November was 105.63 €/MWh, a 50.58% increase compared to the October average price of 70.15 €/MWh. The highest hourly price recorded was 193.00 €/MWh on November 5th, while the lowest, 3.32 €/MWh, occurred on November 12th, 24th, and 25th.
Gas Prices
In the Spanish gas market, the average spot price increased from 40.41 €/MWh in October to 44.42 €/MWh in November. The highest prices were recorded on November 30th, reaching 49.03 €/MWh, while the lowest occurred on November 2nd, at 38.75 €/MWh.
The rise in gas prices is justified by the increase in CO2 emission allowances during this period, coupled with the fact that TTF gas futures peaked at 48.30 €/MWh. Expectations of higher demand due to falling temperatures in December further contributed to this trend. Additionally, storage levels dropped significantly, from over 100% at the beginning of November to 93.25% by the end of the month.
In parallel, the growing demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asian market caused some vessels originally to bound for Europe to redirect their shipments to Asia.
Fuels
Regarding the forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the coming months, the projected average monthly prices are as follows: 73.42 $/bbl for January, 72.99 $/bbl for February, and 72.71 $/bbl for March. The expected maximum prices are 75.63 $/bbl, 75.26 $/bbl, and 74.96 $/bbl, respectively.
Following the price decline observed in the last week of the previous month, this downward trend persisted throughout November. Factors such as the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon have contributed to improve the stability in the Middle East, reducing crude oil prices by lowering the supply risk associated with this conflict. Additionally, the outlook for a more abundant supply in 2025 has further supported this downward trend. According to the International Energy Agency, a surplus of more than one million barrels per day is expected, representing over 1% of global production.
Another significant development during the month was the postponement of the OPEC+ meeting. The group expects to define its trade policy for 2025. A key point of discussion will be the decision on whether to approve the planned increase in production by 180,000 barrels per day, originally scheduled for January 1, or to delay it further.
In terms of CO2 EUA, the price for December’25 increased to 69.60 €/t in November, up from 65.94 €/t in October. Similarly, the price for December’26 is even higher, reaching 71.71 €/t.
Future contracts trends
As is typical during the winter season, electricity prices are expected to continue their upward trend until January. In line with this, the average price for January’25 is projected at 91.46 €/MWh. In the following months, this trend is expected to reverse, with an estimated price of 44.74 €/MWh for April’25.
Power prices for the first quarters of 2025 have increased. In November, the average price for Q1’25 rose to 76.57 €/MWh, up from 70.89 €/MWh in October. Similarly, the average price for Q2’25 increased to 49.85 €/MWh, compared to 47.53 €/MWh in October. For Q3’25, prices in November were set at 81.53 €/MWh.
In the long term, the price of electricity for Cal’25 rose to 71.83 €/MWh, up from 69.11 €/MWh in October. However, for Cal’26, prices decreased slightly, reaching 61.82 €/MWh compared to 62.89 €/MWh in October.
The MIBGas contracts for November closed at 44.51 €/MWh for Q1’25 and 42.57 €/MWh for Q2’25, marking an increase compared to October, when the same products traded at 40.65 €/MWh and 38.72 €/MWh, respectively.
Regarding gas prices for Cal’25 and Cal’26, they stood at 39.10 €/MWh and 33.79 €/MWh in October. Following this upward trend, they increased in November to 42.20 €/MWh for Cal’25 and 34.21 €/MWh for Cal’26.
For EUA ETS prices, EUADec’25 rose to 69.60 €/t in November from 65.94 €/t in October, while EUADec’26 also increased, reaching 71.71 €/t in November compared to 67.98 €/t in October.
From January 2025, the energy sector in Spain will be subject to significant regulatory changes. The IVA will return to its general rate of 21%, after having been reduced in previous periods. Similarly, the IEE will be reinstated at 5.11%. Additionally, the IVPEE will revert to 7%, following reductions implemented in prior years.
SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)
SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)
EUA price (€/t)
MIBGas price (€/MWh)
Coal Price ($/Tn)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%
Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%
