Spanish Market Analysis
Analysis of the Spanish energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in Spain and in other relevant markets such as France.
Table of Contents
April 2025
Key figures of the month
In April 2025, electricity prices across European markets fell sharply, mainly due to strong renewable energy output.
The first half of the month was marked by a significant increase in renewable generation, with record daily solar photovoltaic production recorded in Italy, France, and Germany. During the second half of the month, electricity demand dropped due to easter period, while higher wind generation in most markets further pushed prices down. However, in the final week of April, wind generation decreased, leading to a rebound in prices across several major European electricity markets.
In Spain, the power spot price stood out in Apr’25, averaging just 26.81 €/MWh, significantly lower than in other European countries. This was largely due to Spain’s strong renewable generation throughout the month.
To highlight the contrast, the average price in Spain was nearly four times lower than in Italy (99.85 €/MWh) and three times lower than in Germany (77.60 €/MWh).
The gas market continued the downward trend observed in the previous month. Significant price drops were recorded, with all countries now showing gas spot prices below 40 €/MWh, a level that had been exceeded in the previous month. Gas Cal’26 prices also declined, although the decrease was not as pronounced as in the spot market.
December 2025 EUA CO₂ prices fell from 70.0 €/t in Mar’25 to 65.5 €/t in Apr’25, marking a significant decline. However, the CIF ARA Y+1 coal price increased, exceeding 107 €/MWh in Apr’25 compared to 104 €/MWh in Mar’25. This scenario reflects a period of generalized declines across the energy markets — including gas, electricity, and CO₂ — with coal being the only exception, showing a slight increase, maybe induced by the uncertainty surrounding potential lower supply from Australia has stirred the market, briefly countering the prevailing bearish trend.
Energy demand and generation mix
Electricity demand in Spain in Apr’25 reached 17,427 GWh, while total generation stood at 19,276 GWh. Both figures were lower than those recorded in Mar’25 and Apr’24, mainly due to the blackout that affected Spain on April 28th.
Renewable energy sources dominated Spain’s electricity generation in Apr’25, accounting for 65.5% of the total mix. This is clearly reflected in the fact that the top three generation technologies for the month were all renewable: wind power led with 21.1%, followed by solar PV with 20.7%, and hydropower with 20.3%, all contributing at very similar levels.
On April 16th, renewables covered 100% of electricity demand across the entire peninsular system – the first time this has ever occurred on a working day -. Additionally, on April 21st, solar energy reached a new record for instantaneous power output, generating 20,120 MW.
In Apr’25, nuclear energy was the main non-renewable contributor to Spain’s electricity generation mix, accounting for 15.3% of the total. However, this represents a sharp decrease compared to the previous month (20.5%). This drop was driven by scheduled outages in several nuclear plants, taking advantage of the low electricity prices resulting from strong renewable generation and reduced demand. As a result, five of the seven operational nuclear reactors in Spain were offline during the month, with only Ascó II and Vandellós II remaining in operation.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
- April’s Blackout
However, evidence suggests that the high penetration of renewable energy in the Spanish power system, without adequate synchronous generation backup, led to uncontrolled oscillations and cascading disconnections, culminating in the major blackout of April 28th. On that day, approximately 80% of electricity generation came from renewable sources, mainly solar and wind. At the same time, there was a very low share of synchronous generation technologies such as nuclear, gas, and large-scale hydro — technologies that play a key role in stabilizing grid frequency (50 Hz) through their rotational inertia during supply-demand imbalances.
In contrast, most of the renewable generation was provided by solar PV panels and wind turbines connected via power electronics (inverters), which do not contribute physical inertia to the system. This made the grid highly vulnerable to disturbances.
That day, the system experienced severe electrical oscillations caused by voltage and power fluctuations. These oscillations, combined with the fact that only one nuclear reactor was online, and solar output was extremely high, triggered automatic disconnections in many solar plants due to self-protection mechanisms. This led to a sudden and massive loss of generation capacity.
With insufficient conventional backup to stabilize the grid, the system collapsed in a cascading failure that affected all of Spain, Portugal, and parts of France.
Energy prices & market panorama
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
The average electricity price in Spain for Apr’25 dropped to 26.81 €/MWh, representing a 50% decrease compared to Mar’25 (53.09 €/MWh). This was the lowest monthly price so far this year, mainly driven by exceptionally high renewable generation (wind, solar and hydro) combined with lower demand due to the holiday period in Spain. However, when compared to Apr’24, which saw an average price of 13.67 €/MWh, this year’s price is nearly double, highlighting the year-on-year increase despite the recent monthly decline.
A key aspect of the Spanish electricity market in April was the high number of hours with negative wholesale electricity prices, driven by a sharp increase in renewable generation in a context of moderate demand. Spain’s rapid expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity in recent years highlights the growing need for flexibility and energy storage mechanisms to ensure system reliability.
However, persistent negative prices can undermine the financial viability of new generation and backup projects that are essential to maintain system stability. If this imbalance continues, it could increase the risk of blackouts or lead to high price volatility in the future, as the system becomes more exposed and less resilient.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
The average gas price for Apr’25 in MIBGAS was 33.51 €/MWh, reflecting a sharp drop from Mar’25 (41.29 €/MWh) and continuing the downward trend established in the previous month.
In April, the EU introduced new measures aimed at reducing gas demand, which led to a decrease in gas imports.
At the same time, the European Parliament’s Industry and Energy Committee supported the extension of gas storage obligations, while slightly easing filling requirements to avoid upward pressure on prices.
Although the European Commission has proposed extending the regulation until 31 December 2027—beyond the original 2025 expiry—the updated version allows more flexibility. Instead of requiring storage facilities to be filled to at least 90%, the revised approach ensures total storage levels remain above 75%, giving member states more room to adjust.
Market trends and futures
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
From Mar’25 to Apr’25, energy markets experienced a notable downward trend across most products. Brent, gas, and CO₂ futures reached their lowest closing prices since Apr’21, Sep’24 and Apr’24, respectively.
Power prices dropped significantly, particularly in the short term, with M+1 falling by 19.2%. Although quarterly and medium-term prices also declined, the yearly product for 2025 slightly increased, suggesting expectations of a more stable or even recovering long-term market.
Similarly, gas prices decreased across all horizons. Monthly and quarterly contracts fell by around 16%, while yearly products showed more moderate declines, indicating short-term relief but relative long-term stability. During this period, U.S. tariff policies continued to influence gas futures, while ongoing negotiations to ease storage targets for the upcoming winter also contributed to keeping prices subdued.
Carbon prices also followed this downward trend, with EUA prices for both 2025 and 2026 falling by about 7%. This is likely linked to reduced industrial activity or a greater share of renewable generation in the energy mix.
Despite these lower input costs, the Clean Spark Spread remains negative, although it has improved, especially for Q+2. This means combined-cycle gas plants are still not profitable based solely on energy market revenues and must depend on ancillary services or other mechanisms.
Brent oil prices dropped by nearly 10%, reflecting broader weakness in global energy markets. This decline was intensified by OPEC+’s unexpected decision (led by Saudi Arabia and Russia) to accelerate production by adding 411,000 barrels per day starting in May. The market responded immediately, with oil prices falling 5% following the announcement. Additionally, OPEC has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 slightly downward, to 1.3 million barrels per day, 150,000 barrels less than previously expected, adding further bearish pressure.
SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)
SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)
EUA price (€/t)
MIBGas price (€/MWh)
Coal Price ($/Tn)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%
Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%
