Note that renewable energy sources reached in March their highest monthly contributions of all time. In fact, renewable production has increased by 15,6% compared to February’ 24. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that hydraulic energy has registered its highest production since May 2016. This is mainly due to the rain at the end of the month in most parts of the country. Moreover, due to the rain and wind, and especially because of the influence of Nelson storm, Spain recorded for the first time on Monday April 1, 2024, three hours of negative prices.

The recent sharp decrease in energy prices is good news for consumers, as it will eventually translate into lower household bills. However, the long-term implications of the fall in prices may hurt investment in renewable energy sources. This is especially concerning as Europe is committed to reducing its carbon footprint and transitioning to a greener economy.

The total electricity demand in Spain in was 20.413 GWh, greater than the demand established during February (18.912 GWh), However a 0,3% lower than March ’23. The power generation mix in was dominated by wind generation as previously mentioned, however the generation by wind decreased in a 4,5% compared to February. Other generation sources oscillated during this month, as nuclear decreasing by a 5%. On the other hand, hydraulic production and solar production increased by 8,6% and 2,3% respectively, in comparison to February’ 24.

In the Spanish gas market (MIBGAS), there was a slight increase in the average spot hourly price from 25,64€/MWh in February to 26,5 €/MWh in March. In March, the highest price was 29.11€/MWh and the lowest 23.3€/MWh; while in February both values were slightly smaller, 28,91€/MWh and 22,73€/MWh respectively. Future prices for the upcoming months of April are around 26,52 €/MWh vs the 25.04 €/MWh estimated in February for this month. Furthermore, for May and June around 26.5 €/MWh are both the price trends to expect. Following the pattern of the previous months, it would not be surprising if the price results higher if only a small storage capacity is compromised by any chance in Europe.  

At the beginning of March third Vice-President and Minister for Ecological Transition advocated on Monday in Brussels for a unified EU stance to quickly « reduce or ban » Russian gas imports, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia, “As soon as possible”. Spanish Spain wants to take on Russian gas, as it imported almost twice as much natural gas from Russia in 2023 compared to 2021, reaching some 72,700 GWh.

Regarding CO₂ emissions, December’ 24 prices have increased slightly from 57.6€/t in February to 59.62€/t in March. Moreover, checking December’ 25 we can see the exact same happens, the price rises from 59.72€/t to 61.87€/t.

Brent crude oil’s average monthly price saw an increase for this first month to 82,2 $/bbl from the o 81,76 $/bbl of February. Regarding the forecast price for the next three months of 2024, the average price remains consistent at around 83-84 $/bbl.

Something to note is that Central banks are affected by OPEC oil production cuts. Since the end of 2023, crude oil prices have risen nearly 20%, driven by both the cartel’s supply cuts and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities.

Medium and long-term contracts:

In February’ 24 the prices for Q4’ 24 and Q1’ 25 were oscillating an average price of 65,75€/MWh and 55.69€/MWh respectively. In March those prices have risen slightly to 69.6€/MWh for Q4’ 24 and 58€/MWh for Q1’ 25.

In the long term, the price for Cal’25 reached 55.5€/MWh, 51.84€/MWh for Cal’26, 51.33€/MWh for Cal’27, and 51.12€/MWh for Cal’28. They all are surrounding similar amounts for the future. February values may have caused the drop, keeping in mind that in December’24, Cal’24 was 82,25 €/MWh.

In March, MIBGas contracts of Q2’24 was traded at 26,52€/MWh from 25,3 €/MWh in February’24, lower than the January’s estimation of 29€/MWh. Also, Q3’24 and Q4’24 are traded at 27,07 €/MWh from 25,8 €/MWh and 29,75 €/MWh from 28,19 €/MWh which are higher values from February’s conclusion. The Cal’25 increased from 25,6 €/MWh to 29,73 €/MWh in February and Cal’26 prices averaged 27,9 €/MWh from 26,9 €/MWh in February’24.

In March’24, the CO₂ contracts of EUADec’24 increased from 57,6 €/t to 59,6 €/t. EUADec’25 showed an increase as well to the previous monthly average price, to 61.87 €/t from 57,6 €/t, in December. EUADec’26 instead plotted a monthly average price of 59,7€/t in February’24 and 64.05€/t in March, sharing alone the same upraised trend.  

The WMO issued a red alert for climate change, noting that all climate variables are worsening, threatening global societies and economies. The 2023 climate report revealed that it was the warmest year on record in 174 years, with worrying indicators such as rising sea levels and melting ice in Antarctica. In Latin America, the El Niño phenomenon caused significant impacts, affecting the economy and society. In addition, it is warned that CO₂ levels could exceed the 1.5 °C threshold by 2024, highlighting the urgency of taking action to address the climate crisis. In Spain, although EU funds have accelerated the energy transition, only around 40% of available resources have been used, highlighting the need for further action.