June 2024
Market Analysis
Spot and short-term contracts:
In June 2024, renewable energy sources contributed 58.7% of the total energy produced, a decrease from the 63% produced in May and 64,6% in April. The total energy originated from renewables was 12.665 GWh, which is 29% higher than in June 2023. Notably, solar photovoltaic led the national energy mix for the second consecutive month with 22,2% in June 2024. Following solar photovoltaic, wind generation accounted for 20,5%, nuclear generation at 20,1%, and hydraulic generation at 11,6%.
In June, the Spanish electricity market showed more price fluctuations compared to the previous month. The highest spot hourly price reached was 175.55 €/MWh on June 4th, while the lowest was -17.62 €/MWh on June 16th. Even though in March and April the electricity price average was 20,34 €/MWh and 13,67€/ MWh, in May, the price increased to 30,4 €/MWh, same in June with the average price at 56.08€/MWh. However, it is 40% lower than the price recorded in June 2023. The rise is mainly due to renewable and nuclear energy sources not producing enough electricity to meet the early morning demand and the night demand 21:00-00:00. This required energy from CCGT plants and resulted in higher prices. Furthermore, exportation to Portugal has increase to 51 GWh/day which increased the production of CCGT’s in no-solar hours as well. Also, prices might increase due to northern reservoirs been forced to release water in March and April because they exceeded safety levels. Hence, hydraulic sources are managing their resources more strategically, releasing water only when prices are high to maximize their profits.
Figure 1. Source: Haya Energy Solutions
This rise in the electricity price in June has provoked a decrease in IVA from 21% to 10% for the next month of July. It could happen because the government has established this reduced rate for the entire year, with one condition: if the average pool price does not surpass 45 euros/MWh in a specific month, the tax will rise to 21% the following month for all consumers, whether they are in the free market or the regulated market, except for severely vulnerable consumers, who will continue to pay 10%.
The total electricity demand in Spain was 19.525 GWh, 1,6% lower than June’23. The power generation mix was dominated by solar generation 22,2% of the total, an increased by 23.8% compared to June’23. Also, to notice that the photovoltaic achieved a new record of daily production with 201 GWh on the 21st of June.
In the Spanish gas market (MIBGAS), there has been an increasing trend in the average spot daily price, rising from 26,5 €/MWh in March to 29,24 €/MWh in April, to 32,01 €/MWh in May to this past month of June 34,55€/MWh. The highest price recorded in June was 36,47€/MWh on the 3rd. On the other hand, the lowest price was 33.4€/MWh on June 7th. This increase is thought to be due to the high demand for non-solar hours.
Regarding CO2 emissions, December’24 prices have increased from 59,62€/t in March to 66,07€/t in April to 72,87€/t in May, however, they slightly decreased to 69,7€/t in June. Spain has proposed at the EU Transport Ministers’ Council in Luxembourg that the ETS system, which taxes CO2 emissions in the EU, should apply to containers instead of ships to prevent a competitive disadvantage for European ports against countries with less stringent environmental standards. Spanish Transport Minister Óscar Puente warns that the current model could divert traffic to non-EU ports and suggests elevating the issue to the International Maritime Organization to ensure a global climate commitment.
Regarding the forecast of Brent crude oil, the monthly average price is 82.81$/bbl and 82,36$/bbl for the upcoming months of August, and September respectively. These prices are in the same range as in May.
The International Energy Agency anticipates a nearly twofold surge in oil demand by 2030, a development that will significantly impact countries and companies heavily reliant on this resource.
Medium and long-term contracts:
The prices for Q4’24 and Q1’25 in June decreased from 84,99€/MWh for Q4’24 to 80,33€/MWh in June and rose from 72,73€/MWh for Q1’25 in May to 73,88 €/MWh in June.
In the long term, the power price for Cal’25 decreased from 69,5€/MWh in May to 67.4€/MWh in June, increased from 55,83€/MWh to 57€/MWh for Cal’26, and stayed practically the same for Cal’27 53,11€/MWh in May, 53,8€/MWh in June.
Last week energy prices experienced a drop in all of Europe, only Spain and Germany are not included. For example, the average weekly price was higher in the last week of June due to the misalignment of European markets and the top price reached in Germany was 2325,83 €/MWh, the highest in Deutsch history.
In June, MIBGas contracts of Q3’24 was traded at 34,98 €/MWh and 37,33 €/MWh for Q4’24. In May, the same quarters were closed with 32,647€/MWh and 35,8 €/MWh. Cal’25 increased from 35,85€/MWh in May to 36,48€/MWh and Cal’26 prices averaged was 31,7€/MWh.
News regarding the LNG, Spain has a large LNG intake volume capacity and in 2023 was the largest importer of Russian LNG due to the six regasification plants connected to the grid. Discussions on the potential difficulties of watching Spain under the ban proposed by the UE (to transshipment and re-export out of Europe) could increase the current volumes arriving in Spain.
During June, the CO2 contracts of EUADec’24 slightly decreased from 72,87€/t to 69,7 €/t in June. In addition, for EUADec’25, the numbers showed a decrease to 72,51 €/t from 75,83 €/t and EUADec’26 also decreased to 75,3 €/t from 78,63 €/t in May, sharing alone the same lowered trend.
Currently, EUA CO2 prices have increased by 10€/tonnes with a lot of volatility. A lot of comments about how the elections of the European representatives for parliament would influence the carbon emissions allowance prices, but these can not yet anticipated.
SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)
SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)
EUA price (€/t)
MIBGas price (€/MWh)
Coal Price ($/Tn)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%
Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%
