Nuclear Availability and Production Forecast
French nuclear monitoring is crucial to understanding the behaviour of energy markets in Europe. This is why our “Nuclear Tracker”, developed by the experts at Haya Energy Solutions, monitors the availability of the French nuclear fleet in real time. We monitor both the availability and production of individual nuclear plants and compare them against Haya Energy Solutions forecast of production.
In France, nuclear energy accounts for almost 70% of the energy mix. However, the nuclear fleet faces a number of challenges that reduce its output, and this unavailability has a direct impact on the markets.
The “Nuclear Tracker” tool is valuable for analysing nuclear availability and production forecasting, which is essential for predicting and understanding European electricity market reactions.
Availability of the French nuclear fleet
Current nuclear availability peaked around 55 GW in late December, within the historical maximum band and close to the upper bound. Since then, availability and production have dipped modestly, now stabilising around 50–55 GW, as shown in the chart. However, the period was not entirely free of disruption: an unplanned outage at Flamanville 1 & 3 (around 2.8 GW) due to Storm Goretti in early January caused a brief dip in production and triggered a sharp market reaction, though its impact on overall fleet availability was short-lived. Other plants like Chooz 1 and Gravelines 1 are currently unavailable and account for much of the rest of the unavailability this month. EDF and RTE currently foresee that availability will return to normal by February, but we should remain vigilant, especially since Flamanville 3 is such a new and major part of nuclear production.
While the Flamanville incident underlines how quickly isolated events can affect markets, the absence of broader unplanned outages suggests that the current easing from the early-January peak reflects normal seasonal dynamics rather than emerging systemic issues.
Nuclear Production
We state the total realized production in France up to the current date, along with our forecasted production for the remaining months of the year. This provides a clear picture of overall nuclear output, helping users understand how actual performance compares to expected trends, taking into account planned maintenance, seasonal demand, and historical patterns.
Nuclear trends
We analyze trends in nuclear power availability and production, based on historical data, current plant statuses, and upcoming maintenance schedules. These trends help contextualize current performance and support projections for future supply conditions, especially during periods of high demand or stress on the grid.
