Key Insights from the French Market Analysis

Analysis of the French energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in France and in other relevant markets such as Spain.

Table of Contents

February 2025

Key figures of the month

Energy Key figures - Haya Energy Solutions

Energy demand and generation mix

In February 2025, electricity consumption in France during peaks in demand averaged 68.8 GW. The peak in electricity demand in February was reached on Tuesday 04 February, with 79 GW, below the levels seen the previous month (87GW).

In terms of the generation mix, average nuclear generation in the second month of the year was 48.2 GWh. The average maximum output was reached in mid-February (50.6 GWh), and the average minimum output was reached on Sunday 23rd, coinciding with an increase in wind generation due to strong winds at the end of week 8. In addition, 14 reactors in the French nuclear fleet were on scheduled shutdown (the Flamanville 3 reactor, which has been on forced shutdown since Saturday 15 February).

In terms of renewable energy sources, as you can see from the graph, hydro energy comes second in the total energy mix and first in the renewable energy category. This ranking has remained unchanged since October 2024. Hydroelectric stocks fell from 1,849 GWh (at the end of January) to 1,334 GWh (at the end of February), below last year’s level (1,729 GWh). In February, the days were sunnier than in previous months, as can be seen from the graph (solar production represents 10.6% in the energy mix). What’s more, solar generation was positioned ahead of wind generation, which was not the case in January 2025.

According to the RTE press release of 20/01/2025, in 2024 low-carbon production (nuclear and renewable) reached the threshold of 95% of the electricity produced in France for the first time.

Source: Haya Energy Solutions

Energy prices & market panorama

Average electricity prices for day-ahead base contracts in France reached €112.86/MWh, similar to January’s levels (€112.28/MWh) and still lower than German contracts (€125.16/MWh), a trend observed in recent years. As the graph shows, prices fluctuated considerably throughout the month with the minimum price for the day-ahead base contract being €63.90/MWh on 20 February, and the maximum price €154.37/MWh on 11 February, when spot prices rose as a result of two key factors: increased demand due to lower temperatures and the upturn in economic activity.

Regarding imports and exports, in February, France was in a position of net exporter with all its borders, except for Spain, for which France imported more than it exported. The maximum level of exports for the month was 14 091 MW.

Gas prices: the TTF spot contract closed at €46.10/MWh on 27 February. Since the beginning of the year, the trend has been upwards, until mid-February when it reached its peak price (€58.98/MWh 10/02/2025), after which prices then fell. At the end of February, the TTF spot contract reached its lowest level since the start of the year.

At the end of February, France’s gas storage levels were at 23%, well below 2024 (44%). European gas stocks were depleted faster than expected this winter, but levels are close to the 2011-2021 average (27%).

Gas prices stability depend on various factors that are under tension currently. Minor unforeseen disruptions on the supply side, such as LNG shipments shifting to Asia, or on the demand side, like an exceptionally cold end to winter, or an increase in gas consumption for power generation due to reduced renewables could trigger significant price spikes.

Average Daily Power Feb 2025 - Haya Energy Solutions

Source: Haya Energy Solutions

Average Daily Gas Feb 2025 - Haya Energy Solutions

Source: Haya Energy Solutions

Market trends and futures

Energy Market Tendencies February 2025

Source: Haya Energy Solutions

Levers that will have an impact on the security of gas supply in the short term:

  • Uncertainty over gas supply
    Winter is ending, but a cold snap, combined with low renewables and high demand, could further deplete gas stocks, putting pressure on the summer filling season.
  • Difficulties for re-filling gas storages for next winter
    As an exceptional situation, future summer prices are higher than winter price. The concern is how much natural gas will be needed to re-fill gas storages in Europe. Summer gas storage re-fill season is putting pressure on prices. A new mandate will be published by the European Commission to extend its gas storage regulation by the end of March, proposing different storage levels for 2025.
  • Price forecasts
    Price variations further complicate the situation, with market fluctuations driven by supply chain instability, geopolitical events, and speculative trading, making it difficult for consumers and industries to plan for energy costs.
  • Origin of gas exports
    Diversification of LNG gas suppliers in Europe but impact on competition on LNG demand due to economic expansion in the Asia-Pacific region.
  • Geopolitical tensions
    Geopolitical tensions continue to shape the global gas landscape, with ongoing conflicts, sanctions, and strategic policy shifts potentially leading to supply restrictions or redirections.
Tensions and uncertainties remain in the medium term for European gas markets prospects.

Brent month-ahead oil contract prices fell slightly, from $76.87/b on January 30 to $75.05/b on February 27. Oil prices have fallen significantly since the inauguration of Donald Trump, as his support for increased domestic and OPEC production, as well as his threats of a trade war, have raised concerns about a decline in world trade.

According to IEA, in the long term, global oil demand is set to grow steadily, driven by emerging Asian economies, while supply is expected to rise, primarily from non-OPEC+ producers.

At the end of December, the EPR nuclear reactor at Flamanville was finally connected to the electricity transmission grid (although it has been undergoing maintenance since mid-February). According to EDF’s estimate, the range for nuclear generation in France is now estimated at between 350 and 370 TWh (versus 335 et 365 TWh in the press release of 26/07/2024) for 2025 and 2026. This includes output from Flamanville 3. If this reactor operates as expected, it could supply a significant amount of decarbonized electricity (itcould produce up to 14TWh/y), contributing to the stabilization of French energy prices. The nuclear park in France might face new challenges to meet the target as modulation needs are gradually increasing due to greater RES penetration.

Regulation

The French Finance Act 2025 has been published in the Journal Officiel on 15 February 2025.
On the energy part the main elements are:

Post-Arenh Mechanism
Article 4 establishes a post-Arenh mechanism based on an agreement between EDF and the government. A new tax on nuclear fuel use will limit nuclear plant revenues by capturing a share of margins beyond defined thresholds (50% above the taxation threshold and 90% beyond the capping threshold). The revenue from this tax will be redistributed to consumers through a «universal nuclear payment,» adjusted annually based on forecasted calculations by CRE. Implementation is set for January 1, 2026, but current market conditions may render the mechanism irrelevant.

Capacity Mechanism (from November 2026)
A new centralized capacity mechanism will be introduced, with RTE managing purchases. Article 6 establishes a levy on electricity suppliers, covering RTE’s acquisition costs and distributed based on each supplier’s consumption share. This levy functions as a redistribution tax. The goal is to ensure an adequate and balanced electricity supply.

Energy and Electricity Excise Duties (Article 7)
In 2025, normal excise rates are set at €10.54/MWh for natural gas and €25.09/MWh for household electricity, with reduced rates for SMEs and high-power consumption. A surcharge similar to the former CSPE will be applied. No new taxes like CRIM are introduced, and the previously planned tax on installed power is not included.

FR Baseload Power price (€/MWh)

FR Peak load Power price (€/MWh)

EUA price (€/t)

PEG Gas price (€/MWh)

Coal Price ($/Tn)

Gas efficiency:52%; Coal efficiency: 38% 

Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)

Gas efficiency: 52%; Coal efficiency: 38%

Clean Spark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Spark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

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Each month, one of our experts publishes an article describing his view on a specific topic of the constant changes taking place in the energy market, with special focus on the French market.

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Cada mes, uno o varios de nuestros expertos publican un artículo en el que aportan su punto de vista sobre un tema concreto abordando los constantes cambios que se producen en el mercado de la energía, con un enfoque especial en los mercados español y francés.

Experiencia profesional & Educación

Diego se graduó en Economía Política en la Universidad de King’s College (Londres – 2021). Empezó su carrera profesional en un negocio familiar en Madrid como gerente de operaciones. Luego, Diego estudió un máster en Administración y Ciencias de la Computación en la IE Universidad (Madrid – 2022), durante el cual participó como becario de Tecnología de la Información (TI) en una startup. En mayo 2023, Diego se incorporó al equipo de HES como becario especializado en la programación de modelos. En su primer proyecto desarrolló una herramienta de software para el modelado de las indisponibilidades del parque nuclear francés. Luego, Diego ha participado, también, en el desarrollo de nuevas herramientas de software de modelado de curvas de precios, funcionamiento de activos de generación y demás tópicos relacionados al mercado energético. 

Diego Marroquín

Junior Consultant

Haya Energy-6

Experiencia profesional

Céline se incorporó al equipo de Haya Energy Solutions en noviembre 2021 como responsable de marketing y de administración. Tuvo una primera experiencia profesional en el sector turístico como manager de redes sociales. En HES, sus actividades se centran en el desarrollo de la notoriedad y visibilidad de la empresa a nivel europeo a través de acciones comerciales, marketing de contenido y desarrollo de la estrategia de marca. A su vez, Céline participa en la gestión de la comunicación de la empresa: optimización de la página web (WordPress & Elementor), de LinkedIn, de la publicación mensual de la newsletter y de la organización de conferencias. Céline está implicada en los proyectos energéticos con los clientes y ejerce como coordinadora y manager de proyecto. Y por fin, está a cargo de la administración (contabilidad, gestión de gastos, facturación).    

 

Educación

Céline se graduó en Filología Española e Inglesa en La Sorbonne (Francia – 2018) y tiene un máster en Gestión de Proyectos y Turismo Cultural (Clermont-Ferrand/ Buenos Aires – 2021). 

 

Céline Haya Sauvage

Responsable de Marketing

Céline Sauvage

Asesoramiento en inversiones

«La descarbonización de los sectores de la energía y el transporte es sin duda el motor económico principal de la industria en la actualidad».

Experiencia profesional

Su carrera empezó en la ingeniería civil como Director de Proyectos en Francia, Martinica y Australia. Posteriormente, fue Director General de una filial en Venezuela. En 1992, creó Dalkia en Alemania (calefacción urbana, cogeneración y asociaciones) y representó a Véolia en Tailandia. En 2000, abrió las oficinas comerciales de Endesa en Francia para sacar provecho de la liberalización del mercado minorista. A partir de 2006, como responsable de Desarrollo de Endesa Francia, dirigió el plan de generación de Ciclos Combinados y desarrolló al mismo tiempo el porfolio eólico y fotovoltaico de SNET. Philippe Boulanger trabajó durante 3 años para E.ON coordinando las actividades de la empresa en Francia. Estuvo muy involucrado en el proyecto de renovación de la concesión hidroeléctrica francesa. Como Senior Vice President – Director de Proyecto en Solvay Energy Services (abril 2012 – febrero 2014) estuvo a cargo de los proyectos de desarrollo de H2/Power-to-Gas y de acceso directo al mercado europeo. Philippe es experto de HES desde 2014.

Educación

Philippe Boulanger estudió Ingeniería en l’Ecole Polytechnique y en l’Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (Francia). Tiene más de 25 años de experiencia en energía e infraestructuras. Además de inglés, Philippe Boulanger habla francés, alemán y español con fluidez.

Philippe Boulanger

Experto en Electricidad

HES-Philippe-Boulanger

«El mundo está cambiando. Los nuevos inversores prestan especial atención al sector energético mientras los actores históricos adaptan su posición al mercado.»

Experiencia profesional

Antonio empezó su carrera en el sector eléctrico en 1991 trabajando como miembro del equipo del director general de Sevillana de Electricidad (España). En 1997, fue nombrado responsable de la regulación comercial en Endesa Distribución. En el 2000, se incorporó al departamento de fusiones y adquisiciones (M&A) de Endesa Europa. Fue nombrado director general de Endesa Power Trading Ltd (UK) en 2003. Un año después, pasó a ser responsable de la gestión de la energía de SNET (Francia). En 2008, fue nombrado director general de esta empresa. En 2009, ocupó el cargo de Director de Desarrollo Corporativo de E.ON Francia. En 2011, fundó Haya Energy Solutions (HES), consultoría focalizada en la optimización de la gestión de la energía de consumidores, productores y comercializadoras de gas y electricidad. De 2015 a 2018, Antonio compaginó la actividad de consultor en HES con la dirección general de 2 instalaciones de producción en Francia (2 CCGTs x 410MW), propiedad de KKR. A finales de 2018, se unió a Asterion Industrial Partners, fondo de inversión en infraestructura, en calidad de socio operativo. En la actualidad, Antonio dedica la mayor parte de sus esfuerzos al Portfolio de Asterion, mientras aconseja, a través de HES, empresas del sector energético en Francia, Italia, Alemania, Reino Unido y España 

Educación

Antonio se graduó en la Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Sevilla (España) y tiene un MBA en la Universidad de Deusto (España).

Antonio Haya

Presidente

Antonio Haya