French Market Analysis
Analysis of the French energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in France and in other relevant markets such as Spain.
Table of Contents
November 2024
Evolution of demand and production mix
In November 2024, electricity consumption in France during peaks in demand averaged 60.3 GW. The peak electricity demand in November was reached on Thursday, November 21, at 72.4 GW, 16.9 GW higher than October’s peak and in line with the levels seen in winter (e.g., 71.0 GW in November 2023).
Renewable energy sources contributed 33.8% of the total energy produced. Specifically, hydro energy accounted for 14.6% of the total energy produced, while wind energy accounted for 10.2% and photovoltaics contributed 9%. It is worth noting that hydroelectric stocks grew significantly this summer, and the tendency has been maintained over the months, reaching the highest level of storages observed in the past 4 years mid-October at 3 178GWh. In November, the levels decreased by more than 900 GW, below last year’s level.
The passage of Storm Bert across France led to record wind power generation, significantly impacting the energy mix. Wind power production peaked at 19.3 GW on Sunday, November 24, 2019, with an average of 18 GW that day, and 14 GW the day before. The strong wind generation prompted the economic shutdown of several nuclear reactors to balance supply and demand. As a result, nuclear capacity dropped from 50.2 GW on November 18 to 44.7 GW on November 24.
Average electricity prices for day-ahead base contracts in France had an increasing tendency over the last month from 77.68€/MWh in October to 101.32€/MWh in November. Prices fluctuated considerably throughout the month, with the minimum day-ahead base contract price at €87.9/MWh on November 1st, and the maximum price at €108/MWh on November 8.
Finally, on 14 November 2024, the net export balance had reached 85.1 TWh since the start of the year (and only 9.9 TWh imported over this period).
Gas
In terms of gas prices, the TTF spot contract closed at €45.7€/MWh on the 29th of November. After the slight reduction end of October, the tendency has been increasing all over November (+7.4€/MWh).
In terms of gas generation, the average during maxima almost doubled compared to October (2.8 GW), reaching 5 GW. November confirmed the rapid fall in temperatures that began in October.
At the beginning of November, France’s gas storage levels were at 95% and at the end of the month at 81%, well below 2022 and 2023 years.
Russia’s remaining pipeline flows over Ukraine to Europe since the invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 are expected to end in December, when the transit agreement with Kyiv expires.
Analysts had expected gas prices to fall due to widely available gas supplies across Europe and in the global market. At the moment Europe is well supplied with gas due to stronger flows of gas into the continent from Norway and weaker overall gas demand. LNG imports rose 17% in October compared with the month before to help restock gas for the winter but this was still 16% lower than last year, reflecting weaker demand.
Fuels
Brent month-ahead oil contract prices increased from 71.63 $/bbl on October 28th to 73.28 $/bbl on November 28th. From July 1, when the price was $86.60/bbl, to the end of November, this represents an almost 20% decline. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to play a key role in the up-and-down price trend.
Future contracts trends
The French electricity contract Cal25 average maximum price in November (76.75€/MWh) is higher than October’s levels (73.13€/MWh). The drop in Cal25 prices, compared to August, may in part be due the improvement of the availability of nuclear power plants.
API Cal 25 Coal prices, which had fallen by end of July (118.67$/t), increased the month after and remained at similar levels – 122.78$/t – by end of November.
The US, the world’s second largest greenhouse gas emitter should witness a new boom in American oil and gas production, which Trump openly supports. That would be good news for US competitiveness, but sad news for the Environment – both domestically as the increased production would mean more shale oil and gas production, and thus fracking, and globally, as Trump will most likely take the US again out of the Paris Agreement, as he did during his previous presidential term (2016-2020). But above all, a policy of maximizing American oil and gas production should reduce energy prices in the United States in the short term, and further increase the gap with the much higher prices in Europe, at the expense in particular of the European economy and industry.
The TTF Cal25 contract reached 45.6 €/MWh on November 29th, an increase compared to end of October (39.67€/MWh). TTF Cal 26 followed a stable trend and stayed below Cal25 levels all-throughout November and closed at 36.2 €/MWh on November 29th.
EUA Dec’24 prices, increased from 64.58 €/t on October 31st to 68.40 €/t on November 29th.
