Key Insights from the French Market Analysis
Analysis of the French energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in France and in other relevant markets such as Spain.
Table of Contents
April 2025
Key figures of the month
Energy demand and generation mix
In April 2025, electricity consumption in France during peaks in demand averaged 50.7 GW. The peak in electricity demand in April was reached on Wednesday 02 April, with 57.8 GW, well below the levels seen the previous month (70.7 GW).
In terms of the generation mix, average nuclear generation in the fourth month of the year was 40.5 GWh. The average maximum output was reached mid-April (43.9 GWh), and the average minimum output was reached on Sunday 20th. The last week of the month, 18 reactors in the French nuclear fleet were on scheduled shutdown.
In terms of renewable energy sources, as you can see from the graph, the days were sunnier than in previous months and PV production comes second in the total energy mix and first in the renewable energy category. Solar production represents 16.8%. Hydro energy comes third in the total energy mix; first time since October 2024. Hydroelectric stocks increase from 981 GWh (at the end of March) to 1,212 GWh (at the end of April), below last year’s level (1,365 GWh). As mentioned in March’s analysis, the trend over the last few years shows a drop until the end of the first quarter, and in April, hydro conditions improve with rainfall returning in France, additionally accompanied by snowmelt.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Energy prices & market panorama
Average electricity prices for day-ahead base contracts in France reached €37.19/MWh, lower to March’s levels (€68.20/MWh). Spot prices continue to fell under the combined effect of higher temperatures, low demand and high solar production. As the graph shows, prices fluctuated considerably throughout the month with the minimum price for the day-ahead base contract being €5.9/MWh on 30rd April, and the maximum price €78.64/MWh on 23rd April. In April 2025, electricity prices in France were influenced by several contrasting factors. Despite low wind conditions, France managed to moderate some of this pressure thanks to sufficient nuclear output, which provided a stable and predictable supply. At the same time, higher-than-average temperatures in France led to increased PV production. Prices soar specially during the evenings when solar generation drops significantly, and demand is high.
Regarding imports and exports, in April, France was in a position of net exporter with all its borders, except for Spain, as seen last month, for which France imported more than it exported. Oversupply in Spain has an impact on French prices. The maximum level of exports for the month was 16,313 MW.
Gas prices, the TTF spot contract closed at €32.22/MWh on 30rd April. From January to February, the trend has been upwards, until mid-February when TTF gas reached its peak price (€58.98/MWh 10/02/2025), after which prices fell in fits and starts. At the beginning of April, the TTF spot contract reached its highest level of the month (€42.30/MWh) and at the end of the month its lowest level of the year due to amid higher temperatures.
But, overall, the European gas balance remains tight, and EU gas stocks are 39.5% full on average, compared to 62.4% last year. France’s gas storage levels are at 42.6%, below 2024 (49.2%). According to discussions held during a European Parliament committee meeting in April, EU member states are considering introducing greater flexibility into the bloc’s mandatory gas storage rules. The proposed changes could allow filling gas storage facilities to 90% capacity between 1st of October to 1st of December (rather than by November 1st), which could ease the pressure.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Market trends and futures
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
In April, US President Donald Trump announced radical changes to US tariff policy by announcing much higher than expected tariffs on almost all of the US’s trading partners, sending shockwaves through global financial markets. Marking what he called “Liberation Day”. A week after, in a high-stakes move, Trump declared a 90-day suspension on the imposition of new tariffs above 10%, aiming to create space for negotiations that, according to the White House, are already underway with 75 countries. While the pause offered temporary relief to some U.S. trading partners, tensions with China escalated sharply. In response to Beijing’s second round of tariff hikes on American goods, raising total tariffs to 84%, the U.S. administration retaliated by increasing its own tariff rate on Chinese imports to a staggering 125%. The mixed message of temporary reprieve for some and intensified confrontation with China left investors reeling and markets in turmoil.
As mentioned last month, the beginning of 2025 marked the end of the Gazprom-Naftogaz gas transit deal. This meant less gas supply coming to Europe, leaving the TurkStream line as the only route for Russian gas importation into Europe. In terms of LNG, European officials stated that the European Commission has decided not to pursue a proposed ban on Russian LNG imports in upcoming sanctions packages, citing opposition from several member states and concerns over the reliability of alternative supply sources.
Since hitting a low on 9 October, just before Donald Trump announced a pause on tariffs above 10%, with the exception of those on China, the price of Brent has therefore recovered nearly $10/b, with no fundamental reason other than this fragile hope for an easing of the trade war.
Tensions are increasing within OPEC+, particularly around compliance with production quotas. Kazakh authorities have made it clear that they cannot force private operators to reduce production from the country’s largest oil fields. As a result, Kazakhstan is unable to offset the quota overruns it has accumulated since early last year. In response to this situation, Reuters reported that some OPEC members are considering bringing forward the production increases planned for June, having already tripled the increase for May under the 18-month ramp-up plan scheduled to continue through September 2026. Gulf producers, whose lower break-even costs give them greater flexibility, appear determined to enforce discipline within the group, starting with Kazakhstan. This escalating dispute raises the possibility that Kazakhstan could eventually exit OPEC+, following a path similar to Angola, which withdrew from the alliance in late 2023 due to its own difficulties in controlling production by private firms.
Regulation
At the beginning of April, CRE published the first observatory of PPA contracts for renewable assets in France.
This report analyses the current dynamics of the PPA market, identifies the obstacles to their development and puts forward recommendations for their democratisation.
- Limited development in France
In France, compared with its European neighbours, volumes are still recent and limited. The reasons for this are a predominantly decarbonised electricity mix and more protective public support mechanisms, which limit the need for private contracting. According to CRE, ‘the crisis in wholesale energy prices has been a major incentive for PPA contracting’. Indeed, in 2022 and 2023, during the energy crisis, the number of contracts increased. However, the trend was reversed when wholesale prices fell in 2024.
Annual volumes of PPAs signed per quarter (GWh/year), compared with electricity prices (quarterly average, €/MWh) – Source: CRE
- Typologie of buyers
In the study panel :
- 1/3 of the contracts signed are ‘utility PPA’; between a producer and a supplier.
- 2/3 of the contracts signed are corporate PPAs, with an end consumer.
CRE reports that the buyers are mainly large companies with significant financial stability and low counterparty risk. Their annual consumption is high (≃ >100GWh/year) but the volume of their supply covered by PPAs represents only a minority share of their total consumption, rarely exceeding 20%. The dominant payment format model is ‘as-produced’ (similar to public support contracts). The risk of deviation is assumed by the buyer in most of the contracts on the panel. Half of the PPA contracts include provisions for the occurrence of negative spot prices, which could lead to a suspension of production.
- Duration
The average duration of a PPA in France is 19 years, considerably longer than in neighboring countries.
- CRE Recommandations
To encourage the development of APPs, it is important to introduce or strengthen arrangements to guarantee counterparty risks, in order to broaden the profile of buyers while ensuring a balanced sharing of credit risk with the private sector. The integration of APPs into the overall electricity supply should also be studied. In addition, the impact of APPs on the liquidity of wholesale markets needs to be analysed. Finally, public support schemes for renewable energies must avoid slowing down the development of APPs by replacing private financing with over-protective public aid.
- Conclusions
This first observatory provides an overview of PPA contracts for renewable assets in France and constitutes a useful basis for players wishing to evaluate or negotiate a contract. CRE plans to update these data and recommendations on a regular basis, in order to keep pace with developments in this emerging market.
