French Market Analysis
Analysis of the French energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in France and in other relevant markets such as Spain.
Table of Contents
January 2025
Evolution of demand and production mix
In January 2025, electricity consumption in France during peaks in demand averaged 73 GW. The peak electricity demand in January was reached on Tuesday, January 14, at 87 GW, above the levels seen the previous month (75.6 GW).
Renewable energy sources contributed 33.9% of the total energy produced. Specifically, hydro energy accounted for 15.2% of the total energy produced, while wind energy accounted for 11.6% and photovoltaics contributed 7%. Due to strong winds, onshore wind capacity rose from 6,058 MW on January 22 to 13,578 MW on January 24, while offshore wind reached 1,137 MW.
In 2024, hydroelectric generation was exceptional, reaching its highest level since 2013 (75.5 TWh) thanks to good stock levels and favourable weather conditions (abundant rainfall in winter and spring). January 2025, hydroelectric stocks decreased from 2309 GWh to 1849 GWh, below last year’s level (2146 GWh).
Average nuclear production in France during the first month of the year reached 53.7 GWh. On January 24, coinciding with an increase in wind power production due to strong winds, five nuclear reactors were under maintenance.
According to the RTE press release of 20/01/2025, in 2024 low-carbon production (nuclear and renewable) reached the threshold of 95% of the electricity produced in France for the first time.
Average electricity prices for day-ahead base contracts in France slightly increased from last month 110.48€/MWh in December and 112.28€/MWh in January. Prices fluctuated considerably throughout the month, with the minimum day-ahead base contract price at 38.43€/MWh on January 27th, and the maximum price at 160.57€/MWh on January 14 when spot prices rose due to two key factors: increased demand driven by lower temperatures and the full resumption of economic activity after the New Year’s holiday.
With 89 TWh of net electricity exports in 2024, France has beaten its all-time record of 77 TWh set in 2002. In 2024, France recorded a positive export balance on all its borders: Germany-Belgium (27.2 TWh), Italy (22.3 TWh), United Kingdom (20.1 TWh), Switzerland (16.7 TWh), Spain (2.8 TWh), etc. “In 2024, this new record for net electricity exports is the result of the major recovery in French nuclear generation, the continued development of renewable generation (wind and solar) and the abundance of hydroelectric generation” according to RTE’s publication on 02/01/2025.
Gas
In terms of gas prices, the TTF spot contract closed at €54.07€/MWh on the 31st of January. Since mid-December, the trend has been upwards, until the beginning of January (50.85€/MWh 01/01/2025), when prices began to fluctuate with peaks and troughs, averaging 48.05€/MWh, before reaching the highest levels seen in the last six months at the end of the month.
Concerns about the future of Europe’s LNG imports have driven European gas prices even higher the last week of January. Notably, the European Commission did not propose a ban on Russian LNG in its latest sanctions package, as member states prioritized securing alternative supplies, including U.S. LNG. Since this decision was anticipated, it had no significant bearish impact on the market. The sharp price increase end of January suggests that the market expects intensified competition for spot LNG cargoes, particularly with Asian buyers. The trajectory of Chinese LNG imports in the coming weeks will offer further insights. Moreover, cold temperatures in most European countries have led to increased gas demand.
In terms of gas generation, the average during maxima followed December’s level (5 GW in January versus 4.6 GW in December).
At the end of January, France’s gas storage levels were at 46.88%, well below 2024 (78.20%). Europe’s gas inventories were depleted faster than anticipated this winter, leaving storage levels lower than normal for this time of year.
Fuels
Brent month-ahead oil contract prices slightly increased from 74.17 $/bbl on December 28th to 76.87 $/bbl on January 30th. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to play a key role in the up-and-down price trend. In Libya, a new crisis between the western government and the eastern opposition has resulted in the closure of the Ras Lanuf and Es Sider ports; two of the five major ports in the east that handle over two-thirds of the country’s 1.2 mb/d oil production.
The IEA has lowered its global oil supply forecasts while slightly raising its demand projections, citing stronger-than-expected demand at the end of 2024 and a cold snap at the start of 2025 in the northern hemisphere. Although the agency still anticipates an oversupplied market in 2025, the surplus is now expected to be smaller, at 725 kb/d compared to the previous estimate of 950 kb/d.
Future contracts trends
The French electricity contract Cal26 average maximum price in January (69.55€/MWh) is higher than December’s levels (65.87€/MWh). At the end of December, the EPR nuclear reactor at Flamanville was finally connected to the electricity transmission grid. According to EDF’s estimate, the range for nuclear generation in France is now estimated at between 350 and 370 TWh (versus 335 et 365 TWh in the press release of 26/07/2024) for 2025 and 2026. This includes output from Flamanville 3. If this reactor operates as expected, it could supply a significant amount of decarbonized electricity (it could produce up to 14TWh/y), contributing to the stabilization of French energy prices. The nuclear park in France might face new challenges to meet the target as modulation needs are gradually increasing due to greater RES penetration.
In December, the TTF Cal26 contract averaged at maximum 39.34 €/MWh a decrease compared to December (43.56 €/MWh). TTF Cal 27 followed a stable trend over the month and stayed below Cal26 levels all-throughout January and closed at 31 .68€/MWh on January 31st.
In terms of CO2 EUA, the price for December’26 (80.52 €/t) exhibited an upward trend compared to December’s levels 71.07 €/t. The price for December’27 is even higher, reaching 83.19 €/t.
