French Market Analysis
Analysis of the French energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in France and in other relevant markets such as Spain.
Table of Contents
September 2024
Evolution of demand and production mix
In September 2024, electricity consumption in France during peaks in demand averaged 48.4 GW. This is slightly below the average during daily peaks seen in September last year, which was at 49.1 GW. Possible causes may include energy sobriety measures and relatively limited industrial activity keeping demand relatively low despite increased electrification. The peak electricity demand in September was reached on Thursday, September 26, at 51.2 GW, 3.1 GW lower than summer’s peak and well below the levels seen in winter (e.g., 83.5 GW in January).
An overview of electricity generation shows, according to RTE data, that nuclear generation averaged during max 40.6 GW, 0.3 GW above summer levels. Wind power generation during maxima, which averaged 4.8 GW in July-August, increased to 8.1 GW on average in September. Solar power generation fell during maxima went from 11.8 GW in summer to 9.7 GW. This can be explained by the reduction of solar hours in September compared to summer months. However, daily max solar generation during September increased y-o-y from 7.8 GW in 2023 to 9.7, representing more than a 20% increase. Hydro power generation averaged 8.9 GW, down from 10.1 GW. It is worth noting that hydroelectric stocks grew significantly this summer, the levels were above 3 100 GWh by the end of August. This is the highest level of storages observed in the past 4 years. In September, hydroelectric stocks decreased slightly but remain above 3 000 GWh.
September was, therefore, characterised by stable renewable power, with an average of 26.7 GW during maxima, equal to July-August levels. However, the contributions from various renewable sources differed between these periods. Finally, France was a net exporter of electricity, exceeding the net 8 GW of exports most of September.
Average electricity prices for day-ahead base contracts in France doubled over the past six months from €30.03/MWh in May to 56.7€/MWh in September. Prices fluctuated considerably throughout the month, with the minimum day-ahead base contract price at €12.15/MWh on September 30, and the maximum price at €104.98/MWh on September 2.
Gas
In terms of gas prices, the TTF spot contract closed at €39.04€/MWh on the 30th of September, versus the €39.48/MWh closing in August. This shows that the decline observed between April and May, which stabilised in June, reversed in July and August and has now stabilised again in September.
In terms of gas generation, the average during maxima doubled compared to June (0.8 GW), reaching 1.5 GW which is in line with the summer months (1.7 GW in July and 1.4 GW in August). This was due to increased demand from Germany, which during night-time, lacking solar, needed to import frequently more than 10GW of power. The peak gas generation was 4.1 GW on Monday the 2nd of September and Wednesday the 04th of September, more than double the peak of 2.5GW in June.
At the end of September, France’s gas storage levels were at 92.4%, slightly lower compared to its European neighbours (Italy: 96.6%, Belgium: 94.05% and Germany: 96%).
2024 Gas prospects report (“Perspectives gaz”) published by GRTgaz, September 2024. “The Perspectives gaz» (Gas prospects) scenarios demonstrate the importance of gas and green gases in decarbonizing all activity sectors and rendering the energy system flexible and resilient. This prospecting exercise undertaken by GRDF, GRTgaz and Teréga details the gas consumption and renewable and low-carbon gas production forecasts for 2030 and 2035. It establishes a pathway, one that is compatible with the European “Fit-for-55” climate targets, which is in line with the commitment to using less gas, using it more efficiently and greening it.” In 2030, 320 TWh/year of gas will be consumed, some 20% of which will be renewable and low-carbon gas. These figures do not take into account the growing quantities of hydrogen which will be used, particularly in manufacturing.
Fuels
Brent month-ahead oil contract prices fell from 77.52 $/bbl on September 1st to 71.98 on September 27th. From July 1, when the price was $86.60/bbl, to the end of September, this represents an almost 20% decline. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to play a key role in the up-and-down price trend.
Future contracts trends
The French electricity contract Cal25 which had witnessed a dramatic increase from 74.74€/MWh (end of June) to 82.25€/MWh by August 29th, fell back in September to 71.61€/MWh. This drop in Cal25 prices may in part be due the improvement of the availability of nuclear power plants compared with previous years.
API Cal 25 Coal prices, which had fallen by roughly 14$/t in June, nearly reaching May levels at $124.94/t on August 29th, and remained at similar levels – 124.37$/t – by end of September.
The TTF Cal25 contract reached 38.33 €/MWh on September 30th, more than 21% increase since the price in March (it was 29.99€/MWh). TTF Cal 26 followed a roughly increasing trend but stayed below Cal25 levels all-throughout September and closed at 33.64 €/MWh on September 30th. Hedge funds are anticipating potential tensions in gas inventories. The first reason is a decline in US LNG exports to Europe due to increased demand from Asia and the possible impact of the hurricane season, which runs until November. The second reason is a sharp drop in temperatures (below seasonal norms), which could lead to a significant increase in total gas demand.
EUA Dec’24 prices, followed a bullish trend, falling from 71.06 €/t on August 29th to 65.56 €/t on September 30th.
French electricity system for Q1-2024
On July 30th, RTE published its review of the French electricity system for the first half of 2024.
The main features of the review of this first semester:
- Electricity generation in France reached its highest level since 2019, with 272 TWh produced at mid-year.
- Hydropower production was exceptionally high. It was 37% higher than last year (+11.1 TWh) and 13% higher than the 2000-2020 average.
- Nuclear power generation continues to recover from the stress corrosion episode. Up 12% on the same period last year (+19.1 TWh), but still 14% below the 2000-2020 average.
- Renewable production is steadily increasing, with wind power generating 25.5 TWh (18 GW on February 22) and solar power 11.4 TWh (15 GW on May 10, 2024).
- Fossil-fired generation was the lowest since the 1950s, at 11.5 TWh (i.e.~solar), a 54% reduction on the 2000-2020 average.
- France broke its record for net exports, with 42 TWh net (compared with 13 TWh at the same time last year).
- Negative price episodes increased sharply in France in the first half of the year (233 negative hourly steps recorded, compared with 53 in the first half of 2023).
- Prices in the French zone are now low compared with those in neighbouring countries.
- Spot prices have returned to their pre-crisis levels (€46/MWh on average over the half-year),
- Forward prices (quarterly product T1 2025) were divided by three compared with last winter and fell back below German prices.
