June 2024
Market Analysis
Evolution of demand and producction mix:
Electricity
In June 2024, electricity consumption in France during peaks in demand averaged 47.8GW, up 0.2GW from may levels (although 13.5 GW down from February’s 61.3 GW). This is below the average peak seen in June last year, which was at 48.7GW. Causes may include both milder temperatures this year in June but also potentially a moderation in industrial consumption given the global economic outlook. The monthly peak in electricity demand was reached on Wednesday, June 26th, at 52.0 GW, 0.6 GW less than May’s peak and well below the levels seen in winter (e.g., 83.5 GW in January). Despite an overall stable demand in May and June, average electricity prices for day-ahead base contracts in France saw a rise of over €13.0/MWh, from €30.03/MWh in May to €43.39/MWh in June, well above April levels too!
An overview of electricity generation shows, according to RTE data, that nuclear generation averaged during max 39.6 GW, almost 1GW below April and May levels, although well below winter levels (e.g., 45GW of February).
France was a net exporter of electricity, exceeding the net 10GW of exports most of the month of June.
Wind
Wind power generation during maxima, which had decreased significantly from 9GW in April to 5.5GW in May, did not pick up again, averaging 5.4GW in June. Solar power generation increase during maxima from 9.2GW in May to 10.4GW in June. However, solar generation did not increase y-o-y, staying actually 0.1GW below during maxima compared to June 2023 levels.
Gas
For gas, the average during maxima was slightly increased, from 0.6GW to 0.8GW. This was due to a prominent role of gas on certain hours, given low renewables and nuclear. The peak gas generation was 2.5GW, well above the 1.0GW of May.
There was a net decrease of 1.0GW in the average during the maxima in June compared to May, reaching 27.5 GW, which is more than 3.3GW less than April and 4.0GW less than March. Nonetheless, this is 2GW rise y-o-y. This decrease was due mainly to the decrease in wind energy, from 9GW in April to 5.5GW in May and 5.4GW in June, partly due to lower generation in warmer months. In parallel, hydro generation, after having risen in May, fell as previously seen by 2GW in June, probably in part to preserve summer hydro stocks. Hydro power generation decreased from 13.8 to 11.8GW. This month of June was, therefore, characterised by particularly modest renewable power generation on wind, solar and hydro. Consequently, hydroelectric stocks grew significantly in June, in line with historical build-up before summer, rising from just above 2200 GWh to above 2900 GWh. This is the highest level of storages observed in the past 4 years.
Futures and one-month ahead contracts:
Gas prices
The TTF spot contract closed at €33.88/MWh in June, 0.3€/MWh lower than the May’s close (€34.18/MWh). This shows that the fall observed between April and May seems to have stabilised at these levels for the time being.
Oil contract prices
August-24 oil contract prices rose more than 10% in June, going from 78.36 $/bbl to 86.39 $/bbl. This is in light of the OPEC production cut extension into 2025 and concern about potential U.S.A. production cuts following hurricane season.
Electricity futures
In June we saw the August 2024 French base contract trend upwards over 10%, from 46.71€/MWh to 51.81€/MWh. This increase in French August futures is all the more surprising because middle of the month, on June 17th, the price had fallen to as low as 38.88€/MWh, before undertaking a 13€/MWh rise.
Medium and long-term contracts:
TTF Cal25 contract
It has been slowly increasing since March (29.99€/MWh), reached 37.42€/MWh end of May and was just above 38€/MWh end of June. Although the continent’s gas supplies have shifted over the past two years towards increased reliance on safer routes, namely with Norway and the U.S.A., the agreement of OPEC countries to restrain oil production together with the increased instability in the Red Sea, reflected by the extension of the mission of Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group 2, one of the 8 U.S.A. Navy strike groups, in the region, have contributed to support bullish forces influencing longer-term gas contracts. The sinking of the MV Tutor coal cargo ship on the 12th of June by Houthi forces increased to the uncertainty over the Red Sea route also for gas and oil transport.
Coal prices
Wich had increase by circa 15$/t in May, fell by roughly 14$/t in June, reaching almost the same levels of two months ago, at 114$/t.
EUA Dec’24 prices
Followed a very similar trend, after having risen by almost 7€/t in May, they fell back to almost the same amount in June, reaching 67.47€/t.
French electricity contract Cal25
Witnessed a dramatic fall, from 82.25€/MWh to 74.74€/MWh. Part of this fall may be attributed to the sizeable increase in renewable power generation during the first semester in Germany, leading to forecasted lower power prices in the coming year.
FR Baseload Power price (€/MWh)
FR Peak load Power price (€/MWh)
EUA price (€/t)
PEG Gas price (€/MWh)
Coal Price ($/Tn)
Gas efficiency:52%; Coal efficiency: 38%
Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)
Gas efficiency: 52%; Coal efficiency: 38%
