May 2024

Market Analysis

Evolution of demand and production mix: 

In May 2024, electricity consumption in France during peaks in demand averaged 47.2GW, down 5.8GW from April levels (and more than 14GW from February’s 61.3 GW). This is in line with the average peak seen in May last year. The monthly peak in electricity demand was reached on Thursday, May 2nd, at 52.6 GW, almost 8 GW less than April’s peak and well below the levels seen in winter (e.g., 83.5 GW in January). Alongside this decrease in demand, average electricity prices for day-ahead base contracts in France saw a decrease of over €5.5/MWh, from €35.59/MWh in April to €30.03/MWh in May. 

An overview of electricity generation shows, according to RTE data, that nuclear generation averaged during max 40.5 GW, the same levels as in April, although well below winter levels (e.g., 45GW of February). 

Wind power generation during maxima decreased significantly from 9GW to 5.5GW and solar power generation decreased too, despite the increased orbital-related sun exposure, from 9.7 to 9.2GW. However, hydro power generation increased from 12.1 to 13.8GW. This trend shows an interesting inversion of renewable energy, showing a potentially beneficial complementarity: high precipitations lead to increased hydro storage availability and subsequently generation, in part offsetting the decrease in solar generation. 

For gas, the share in the electricity generation mix fell from 1.4GW in April to 0.6GW during maxima in May, reaching very low levels well before summer. 

Finally, France was a net exporter of electricity, exceeding the net 15GW of exports repeatedly throughout the month, the highest level of exports during the month of May in a decade. 

In terms of renewable energy generation, there was a net decrease of 2.3GW in the average during the maxima in May compared to April, reaching 28.5 GW, which is more than 3GW less than March. This decrease was due mainly to the decrease in wind energy, from wind 9GW to 5.5GW, in line with the levels of wind generation during warmer months. Hydroelectric stocks grew significantly in May, in line with historical build-up before summer, rising from below 1500GWh to above 2200GWh, roughly in line with 2023 and 2022 levels and 600GWh above 2021. 

In terms of gas prices, the TTF spot contract closed at €34.18/MWh in May, more than 5.5€/MWh higher than the April close (€28.63/MWh). Although lower than the values seen in winter, for example November’s €41.23/MWh, this shows a trend inversion, in part due to the end of the emptying phase for gas storages.  

Futures and one-month ahead contracts: 

July-24 oil contracts fluctuated at around 83$/bbl during the month of May, closing at 81.8$/bbl (below June’s contract in May, being around 88 $/bbl). These prices are more in line with the World Bank’s forecast of $81/bbl for 2024. Although the tensions in the middle east certainly had an impact, it must be noted that OPEC members had taken concrete steps to keep prices above 80$/bbl following the past year’s relatively low prices (and have agreed to maintain measures on the 2nd of June). 

As for electricity futures, in May we saw the July 2024 contract trend downwards, from 56.69€/MWh on May 2nd to 44.59€/MWh on May 31st. This decrease in French July future prices occurred despite a rise in German prices for the same contract from less than 70€/MWh end of April to almost 80€/MWh end of May. 

Medium and long-term contracts: 

The TTF Cal25 contract, which has been slowly increasing since March (29.99€/MWh), reached 37.42€/MWh on the 31st of May. Although the continent’s gas supplies have shifted over the past two years towards increased reliance on safer routes, namely with Norway and the U.S.A., the agreement of OPEC countries to restrain oil production together with the increased instability in the Red Sea, reflected by the extension of the mission of Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group 2, one of the 8 U.S.A. Navy strike groups, in the region, have contributed to a sensible increase also in longer-term gas contracts. 

Coal prices, which were following a bearish trend in April, inverted back to the rising tendency of past months, with API Cal25 prices increasing more than 15%, from $110.18$/t on April 30th to $126.98$/t on May 31st. It is worth noting that coal demand has decreased substantially in the U.S.A. during the past year, accounting for a major part of the 3% decline in national CO2 emissions. However, increased coal powerplant construction, namely in India, has a bullish effect. 

On the other hand, EUA Dec’24 prices, which had fallen during January and February, rose during April and May, from 58.72€/t on the 2nd of April to 74.10€/t on May 31st. 

The French electricity contract Cal25 which was on an upward trend in April, was relatively stable in May, going from 83.38€/MWh on the 2nd of May to 82.94€/MWh on the 31st. This relatively weak correlation of French electricity prices with gas and CO2 observed over the past few months, derived from its large nuclear park, has been somewhat a buffer to the fluctuation in electricity future prices seen in Germany and Italy.

FR Baseload Power price (€/MWh)

FR Peak load Power price (€/MWh)

EUA price (€/t)

PEG Gas price (€/MWh)

Coal Price ($/Tn)

Gas efficiency:52%; Coal efficiency: 38% 

Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)

Gas efficiency: 52%; Coal efficiency: 38%

Clean Spark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Spark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

Suscribe to our Newsletter

Each month, one of our experts publishes an article describing his view on a specific topic of the constant changes taking place in the energy market, with special focus on the French market.

Profesional Experience & Education

Diego graduated in Political Economy at King’s College University (London – 2021). He started his professional career in a family business in Madrid as an operations manager. Diego then studied a Master in Management and Master in Computer Science at IE University (Madrid – 2022), during which he participated as an Information Technology (IT) intern in a startup. In May 2023, Diego joined the HES team as an intern specialised in programming models. In his first project, he developed a software tool for modelling the unavailability of the French nuclear fleet. Afterwards, Diego has also participated in the development of new software tools for modelling price curves, generation asset performance and other topics related to the energy market. 

Diego Marroquin

Junior Consultant

Haya Energy-6

Profesional Experience

Céline joined Haya Energy Solutions in November 2021 as marketing and administration manager. She had a first professional experience in the tourism sector as a social media manager. At HES, her activities are focused on the development of the company’s visibility at European level through: commercial actions, content marketing and development of brand strategy. Céline is also involved in the management of the company’s communication: optimisation of the website (WordPress & Elementor), LinkedIn, publication of the monthly newsletter and the organisation of conferences. Céline participates in energy projects with the clients and acts as coordinator and project manager. Finally, she is in charge of administration (accounting, expenses management, invoicing).   

Education

Céline graduated in Spanish and English Philology at La Sorbonne (France – 2018) and holds a Master’s degree in Project Management and Cultural Tourism (Clermont-Ferrand/ Buenos Aires – 2021). 

Céline Haya Sauvage

Marketing Responsible

Céline Sauvage

Investment Advice

“Decarbonization of the Energy and Transport sectors is arguably today’s main economic driver for the industry.”

Profesional Experience

His career started in civil engineering as a Project Manager in France, Martinique and Australia. Afterwards, he became the General Manager of a subsidiary in Venezuela. In 1992, he established Dalkia in Germany (district heating, cogeneration, and partnerships) and represented Véolia in Thailand. In 2000, he opened the commercial office of Endesa in France to take advantage of the liberalized retail market. From 2006, as a development Manager at Endesa France, he led Endesa’s plan for Combined Cycle generation in France and developed the wind and PV portfolio of Snet at the same time. Philippe Boulanger worked for 3 years at E.ON’s headquarters coordinating the company´s activities in France. He was strongly involved in the French hydro concession renewal project. As a Senior Vice President – Project Director at Solvay Energy Services from April 2012 to February 2014 he was in charge of the H2/Power to gas and European direct market access deployment projects. Philippe has been an HES expert since 2014.

Education

Philippe Boulanger holds engineering degrees both from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (France) and has a combined experience of more than 25 years in energy and infrastructure. In addition to English, Mr. Boulanger is fluent in French, German & Spanish.

Philippe Boulanger

Electricity Expert

HES-Philippe-Boulanger

“The world is changing. New investors pay particular attention to the energy sector while historical actors adapt their position to the market.”

Profesional Experience

Antonio started his career in the electricity sector in 1991 working as a member of the General Manager’s team at Sevillana de Electricidad (Spain). In 1997, he was appointed head of commercial regulation at Endesa Distribución. In 2000, he joined the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) department of Endesa Europe. He was appointed Managing Director of Endesa Power Trading Ltd (UK) in 2003. A year later, he became responsible for energy management at SNET (France). In 2008, he was appointed Managing Director of SNET (France). In 2009, he became Director of Corporate Development at E.ON France. In 2011, he founded Haya Energy Solutions (HES), a consulting firm focused on optimising the energy management of consumers, producers and retailers of gas and electricity. From 2015 to 2018, Antonio combined the consulting activity at HES with the general management of 2 production facilities in France (2 CCGTs x 410MW), owned by KKR. At the end of 2018, he joined Asterion Industrial Partners, an infrastructure investment fund, as an operating partner. Antonio currently devotes most of his efforts to the Asterion Portfolio, while advising through HES companies in the energy sector in France, Italy, Germany, UK and Spain. 

Education

Antonio graduated from the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros of Seville (Spain) and holds an MBA degree from Deusto University (Spain). 

Antonio Haya

CEO