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  • Spanish Market Analysis

Spanish Market Analysis

Analysis of the Spanish energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in Spain and in other relevant markets such as France.

Table of Contents

September 2024

Evolution of demand and production mix

In September 2024, renewable energy sources contributed 53.3% of the total energy produced. Specifically, wind energy accounted for 21.1% of the total energy produced, while photovoltaics contributed 19.5% and nuclear energy accounted for 22.9%.

The total energy generated this month was 21.721 GWh. In terms of electricity demand, there was a decrease from 22,233 GWh to 19,831 GWh compared to the previous month and comparatively, September 2023 saw similar demand at 19,596 GWh.

The average electricity price in September was €72.62/MWh. The highest spot hourly price reached was €176.21/MWh on September 30th, while the lowest was -€0.79/MWh on September 29th.

Gas Prices

In the Spanish gas market, there has been a slight decrease in the average spot price from €38.61/MWh in August to €36.60/MWh in September. The maximum prices reached were €42.10/MWh on the 1st of September and €41.36/MWh on the 31st of August.

Storages in Spain were at the highest 100.23%, conveniently influencing the downward trend of the mean price reached in September.

Hurricane risk on the US LNG exports and the uncertain situation regarding the transit gas flows from Russia via Ukraine did not show a strong influence on the gas price yet, presumably related to the good storage level present in Spain.

Fuels

As for the forecast of Brent crude oil for the remaining of 2024, the monthly average prices for November, December, and January are as follows: 72.93 $/bbl, 72.33 $/bbl, and 71.94 $/bbl, with maximum prices reaching 77.52 $/bbl, 76.73 $/bbl, and 76.16 $/bbl respectively. The mean prices decreased during the month of September, in comparison with the previous month’s analysis. High chances of the shift to an increasing trend may occur due to the offensive launched by Iran on Israel. Experts describe the potential impact as not so severe as the impact of the Ukraine conflict, at least for now its impact has been contained.

Future contracts trends

It can be anticipated that there will be a power price increase from September to January due to the winter season, with prices expected to reach approximately €85.93/MWh in January.

However, prices for Q4’24 and Q1’25 did decrease. In September, the price in Q4’24 dropped from 92.75 €/MWh to 79.10 €/MWh, and the price in Q1’25 fell from 82.73 €/MWh in August to 71.82 €/MWh in September. Additionally, the price in Q2’25 decreased as well, reaching 60.41 €/MWh in August and 51.42 €/MWh in September. Good levels of gas storage may influence the decreasing trend in comparison with August.

Looking at the long term, the power price for Cal’25 decreased from 79.45 €/MWh in August to 71.31 €/MWh, and from 63.09 €/MWh to 61.23 €/MWh for Cal’26 in August. Similarly to the quarterly products mentioned before, the same news applies.

The MIBGas contracts for September closed Q4’24 at 37.11 €/MWh, Q1’25 at 38.25 €/MWh, and Q2’25 at 36.65 €/MWh. In comparison with August, all of them decreased since the same prices were at Q4’24 at 40.20 €/MWh, Q1’25 at 41.41 €/MWh, and Q2’25 at 39.58 €/MWh.

In August, the price of Cal’25 saw an increase to 40.17 €/MWh and to 34.61 €/MWh for Cal’26 in comparison with July. Nevertheless, a decrease was stablished in September to 37.17 €/MWh and 32.65€/MWh for Cal’25 and Cal’26 respectively.

In terms of CO2 EUA, the price for December’24 slightly decreased to 65.51 €/t in September from 71.26 €/t in August. Regarding the EUA ETS, EUADec’25 decreased to 67.66 €/t in September from 73.75 €/t in August, and EUADec’26 also reduced from 71.26 €/t in August to 69.82 €/t.

On September 23rd, the commission amended the monitoring and reporting regulation regarding the emissions trading system (ETS). The amendment includes the zero rating of emissions from certain low carbon fuels, such as renewable fuels of non-biological origin and synthetic low carbon fuels, in the ETS. This also covers biomass fuels and sustainable aviation fuels, with the aim of ensuring compliance with sustainability and greenhouse gas saving criteria to avoid double counting of emissions. The measures also include monitoring and reporting requirements for non-CO2 effects from the aviation sector. The EU is committed to addressing the full climate impact of aviation, including non-CO2 effects such as persistent contrails and NOx particles, which are major contributors to global warming.

SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)

SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)

EUA price (€/t)

MIBGas price (€/MWh)

Coal Price ($/Tn)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Clean Spark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Spark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

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Profesional Experience & Education

Diego graduated in Political Economy at King’s College University (London – 2021). He started his professional career in a family business in Madrid as an operations manager. Diego then studied a Master in Management and Master in Computer Science at IE University (Madrid – 2022), during which he participated as an Information Technology (IT) intern in a startup. In May 2023, Diego joined the HES team as an intern specialised in programming models. In his first project, he developed a software tool for modelling the unavailability of the French nuclear fleet. Afterwards, Diego has also participated in the development of new software tools for modelling price curves, generation asset performance and other topics related to the energy market. 

Diego Marroquin

Junior Consultant

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Profesional Experience

Céline joined Haya Energy Solutions in November 2021 as marketing and administration manager. She had a first professional experience in the tourism sector as a social media manager. At HES, her activities are focused on the development of the company’s visibility at European level through: commercial actions, content marketing and development of brand strategy. Céline is also involved in the management of the company’s communication: optimisation of the website (WordPress & Elementor), LinkedIn, publication of the monthly newsletter and the organisation of conferences. Céline participates in energy projects with the clients and acts as coordinator and project manager. Finally, she is in charge of administration (accounting, expenses management, invoicing).   

Education

Céline graduated in Spanish and English Philology at La Sorbonne (France – 2018) and holds a Master’s degree in Project Management and Cultural Tourism (Clermont-Ferrand/ Buenos Aires – 2021). 

Céline Haya Sauvage

Marketing Responsible

Céline Sauvage
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Investment Advice

  • Definition of investment strategy
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“Decarbonization of the Energy and Transport sectors is arguably today’s main economic driver for the industry.”

Profesional Experience

His career started in civil engineering as a Project Manager in France, Martinique and Australia. Afterwards, he became the General Manager of a subsidiary in Venezuela. In 1992, he established Dalkia in Germany (district heating, cogeneration, and partnerships) and represented Véolia in Thailand. In 2000, he opened the commercial office of Endesa in France to take advantage of the liberalized retail market. From 2006, as a development Manager at Endesa France, he led Endesa’s plan for Combined Cycle generation in France and developed the wind and PV portfolio of Snet at the same time. Philippe Boulanger worked for 3 years at E.ON’s headquarters coordinating the company´s activities in France. He was strongly involved in the French hydro concession renewal project. As a Senior Vice President – Project Director at Solvay Energy Services from April 2012 to February 2014 he was in charge of the H2/Power to gas and European direct market access deployment projects. Philippe has been an HES expert since 2014.

Education

Philippe Boulanger holds engineering degrees both from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (France) and has a combined experience of more than 25 years in energy and infrastructure. In addition to English, Mr. Boulanger is fluent in French, German & Spanish.

Philippe Boulanger

Electricity Expert

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“The world is changing. New investors pay particular attention to the energy sector while historical actors adapt their position to the market.”

Profesional Experience

Antonio started his career in the electricity sector in 1991 working as a member of the General Manager’s team at Sevillana de Electricidad (Spain). In 1997, he was appointed head of commercial regulation at Endesa Distribución. In 2000, he joined the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) department of Endesa Europe. He was appointed Managing Director of Endesa Power Trading Ltd (UK) in 2003. A year later, he became responsible for energy management at SNET (France). In 2008, he was appointed Managing Director of SNET (France). In 2009, he became Director of Corporate Development at E.ON France. In 2011, he founded Haya Energy Solutions (HES), a consulting firm focused on optimising the energy management of consumers, producers and retailers of gas and electricity. From 2015 to 2018, Antonio combined the consulting activity at HES with the general management of 2 production facilities in France (2 CCGTs x 410MW), owned by KKR. At the end of 2018, he joined Asterion Industrial Partners, an infrastructure investment fund, as an operating partner. Antonio currently devotes most of his efforts to the Asterion Portfolio, while advising through HES companies in the energy sector in France, Italy, Germany, UK and Spain. 

Education

Antonio graduated from the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros of Seville (Spain) and holds an MBA degree from Deusto University (Spain). 

Antonio Haya

CEO

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