April 2024

Market Analysis

Spot and short-term contracts:

Records from the beginning of May show a decrease of the national energy demand (in gross terms) by 0,9% in March compared to April‘23. Renewable energy sources contributed 64.6% in April, lower than 65,2% of the total energy produced in March and higher than 59,55% generated in February. As a result, a total of 13.515 GWh of energy was produced from renewables out of which 22,2% was from wind generation (seventh consecutive month generating the highest volumes within the category of renewable), 19,7% from hydraulic technology, and solar photovoltaic 18,8%.

During April, the Spanish electricity market was volatile in comparison to the previous month’s values range of prices. The highest spot hourly price recorded was 109,9 €/MWh on the 25th of April, while the lowest was -1,5 €/MWh on the 21st. Since the beginning of the year, the average price of electricity has decreased from 75,22 €/MWh in January to 37,63 €/MWh in February and decreased again to 20,34 €/MWh in March to 13,67 €/MWh in April. A decrease of 32,8% in comparison to the average in March and a decrease of 63,7% in comparison to February’24. The decrease may be correlated with the decrease of electricity generated in April and lower energy demand.

Figure 1. Source: Haya Energy Solutions

In contrast with other European electricity markets, the Spanish market resisted a general increasing trend of prices, mainly due to gas and CO2 increases of price. Nevertheless, the generation from renewable technology increased in contrast with other markets and contributed to an even lower mean price for April.

The total electricity demand in Spain was 18.938 GWh, 0,6% higher than April’23. The power generation mix was dominated by wind generation 22,2% of the total, however, the generation by wind decreased by 5 % compared to March’24. Other generation sources oscillated during this month, as nuclear increasing by a 1% in April. On the other hand, hydraulic production and solar photovoltaic decreased by 1% and increased by 5% respectively, in comparison to March’24.

In the Spanish gas market (MIBGAS), there was a slight increase in the average spot daily price from 25,64€/MWh in February to 26,5 €/MWh in March and to 29,24 €/MWh in April. The tendency of highest prices recorded was from 28,91 €/MWh in February, to 29,11€/MWh in March, to 33,05 €/MWh in April. Meanwhile, the lowest price trends were recorded from 25,04€/MWh in February, to 23,3€/MWh in March to 26€/MWh in April.

Regarding CO2 emissions, December’24 prices have increased slightly from 57,6€/t in February to 59,62€/t in March to 66,07 €/t in April. Moreover, checking December’25 we can see the exact same happens, the price rises from 59,72€/t to 61,87€/t. For May and April, the prices are towards the forecast for December’24, with an average of 64€/t.

Regarding the forecast of Brent crude oil, the monthly average price is 89$/bbl, 88$/bbl and 87$/bbl for the upcoming months of June, July, and August respectively. These prices are higher than those estimated back in February, 83-84$/bbl indicating the establishment of higher prices for the rest of the year.

More deeply, the production of Brent oil was reduced for the OPEP, probably influencing the increase of future price for the upcoming months. More concretely, Nigeria, Iraq, and Venezuela were among those countries lowering their oil production. The OPEP agreed to lower the oil production at the beginning of the year to avoid financial surplus risks in oil prices, and now these measures are extended until the end of June.

Medium and long-term contracts:

The prices for Q424 and Q125 in March rose to 69,6€/MWh and 58€/MWh respectively. In April power prices were 66,65€/MWh for Q324 and 73,78 €/MWh in Q424.

In the long term, the power price for Cal’25 reached 59€/MWh from 55,5€/MWh, 53,9 €/MWh from 51,84€/MWh for Cal’26, 51,33€/MWh from 52,3€/MWh for Cal’27 in April. All increased except for 2027 which was lowered.

In April, MIBGas contracts of Q324 were traded at 29,47€/MWh and 32,54 €/MWh for Q424. In March, the same quarters were closed with 27,07 €/MWh and 29,75 €/MWh. Cal’25 increased from 29,73 €/MWh in March to 32,84€/MWh and Cal’26 prices averaged 29,51 €/MWh €/MWh.

During April, the CO2 contracts of EUADec’24 remained at 59,6 €/t. Instead, for EUADec’25, the numbers showed an increase to 71,16 €/t and EUADec’26 increased to 71,16 €/t in April from 64,05€/t in March, sharing alone the same upraised trend.  

Now with upcoming higher temperatures, energy demand is expected to increase through thermal comfort. Nonetheless, the results made by the National Statistics Institute indicated an important fact, which is based on the lack of preparation against heat waves in homes mostly in the south of Spain. More explicitly, the data points to 36.2% of households struggling with overall housing costs. This, against an increase of electricity, makes it senseless to pay for heat conform; increasing energy demand and energy cost.

SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)

SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)

EUA price (€/t)

MIBGas price (€/MWh)

Coal Price ($/Tn)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Clean Spark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Spark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

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Each month, one of our experts publishes an article describing his view on a specific topic of the constant changes taking place in the energy market, with special focus on the French market.

Profesional Experience & Education

Diego graduated in Political Economy at King’s College University (London – 2021). He started his professional career in a family business in Madrid as an operations manager. Diego then studied a Master in Management and Master in Computer Science at IE University (Madrid – 2022), during which he participated as an Information Technology (IT) intern in a startup. In May 2023, Diego joined the HES team as an intern specialised in programming models. In his first project, he developed a software tool for modelling the unavailability of the French nuclear fleet. Afterwards, Diego has also participated in the development of new software tools for modelling price curves, generation asset performance and other topics related to the energy market. 

Diego Marroquin

Junior Consultant

Haya Energy-6

Profesional Experience

Céline joined Haya Energy Solutions in November 2021 as marketing and administration manager. She had a first professional experience in the tourism sector as a social media manager. At HES, her activities are focused on the development of the company’s visibility at European level through: commercial actions, content marketing and development of brand strategy. Céline is also involved in the management of the company’s communication: optimisation of the website (WordPress & Elementor), LinkedIn, publication of the monthly newsletter and the organisation of conferences. Céline participates in energy projects with the clients and acts as coordinator and project manager. Finally, she is in charge of administration (accounting, expenses management, invoicing).   

Education

Céline graduated in Spanish and English Philology at La Sorbonne (France – 2018) and holds a Master’s degree in Project Management and Cultural Tourism (Clermont-Ferrand/ Buenos Aires – 2021). 

Céline Haya Sauvage

Marketing Responsible

Céline Sauvage

Investment Advice

“Decarbonization of the Energy and Transport sectors is arguably today’s main economic driver for the industry.”

Profesional Experience

His career started in civil engineering as a Project Manager in France, Martinique and Australia. Afterwards, he became the General Manager of a subsidiary in Venezuela. In 1992, he established Dalkia in Germany (district heating, cogeneration, and partnerships) and represented Véolia in Thailand. In 2000, he opened the commercial office of Endesa in France to take advantage of the liberalized retail market. From 2006, as a development Manager at Endesa France, he led Endesa’s plan for Combined Cycle generation in France and developed the wind and PV portfolio of Snet at the same time. Philippe Boulanger worked for 3 years at E.ON’s headquarters coordinating the company´s activities in France. He was strongly involved in the French hydro concession renewal project. As a Senior Vice President – Project Director at Solvay Energy Services from April 2012 to February 2014 he was in charge of the H2/Power to gas and European direct market access deployment projects. Philippe has been an HES expert since 2014.

Education

Philippe Boulanger holds engineering degrees both from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (France) and has a combined experience of more than 25 years in energy and infrastructure. In addition to English, Mr. Boulanger is fluent in French, German & Spanish.

Philippe Boulanger

Electricity Expert

HES-Philippe-Boulanger

“The world is changing. New investors pay particular attention to the energy sector while historical actors adapt their position to the market.”

Profesional Experience

Antonio started his career in the electricity sector in 1991 working as a member of the General Manager’s team at Sevillana de Electricidad (Spain). In 1997, he was appointed head of commercial regulation at Endesa Distribución. In 2000, he joined the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) department of Endesa Europe. He was appointed Managing Director of Endesa Power Trading Ltd (UK) in 2003. A year later, he became responsible for energy management at SNET (France). In 2008, he was appointed Managing Director of SNET (France). In 2009, he became Director of Corporate Development at E.ON France. In 2011, he founded Haya Energy Solutions (HES), a consulting firm focused on optimising the energy management of consumers, producers and retailers of gas and electricity. From 2015 to 2018, Antonio combined the consulting activity at HES with the general management of 2 production facilities in France (2 CCGTs x 410MW), owned by KKR. At the end of 2018, he joined Asterion Industrial Partners, an infrastructure investment fund, as an operating partner. Antonio currently devotes most of his efforts to the Asterion Portfolio, while advising through HES companies in the energy sector in France, Italy, Germany, UK and Spain. 

Education

Antonio graduated from the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros of Seville (Spain) and holds an MBA degree from Deusto University (Spain). 

Antonio Haya

CEO