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  • Spanish Market Analysis

June 2024

Market Analysis

Spot and short-term contracts:

In June 2024, renewable energy sources contributed 58.7% of the total energy produced, a decrease from the 63% produced in May and 64,6% in April. The total energy originated from renewables was 12.665 GWh, which is 29% higher than in June 2023. Notably, solar photovoltaic led the national energy mix for the second consecutive month with 22,2% in June 2024. Following solar photovoltaic, wind generation accounted for 20,5%, nuclear generation at 20,1%, and hydraulic generation at 11,6%.

In June, the Spanish electricity market showed more price fluctuations compared to the previous month. The highest spot hourly price reached was 175.55 €/MWh on June 4th, while the lowest was -17.62 €/MWh on June 16th.  Even though in March and April the electricity price average was 20,34 €/MWh and 13,67€/ MWh, in May, the price increased to 30,4 €/MWh, same in June with the average price at 56.08€/MWh. However, it is 40% lower than the price recorded in June 2023. The rise is mainly due to renewable and nuclear energy sources not producing enough electricity to meet the early morning demand and the night demand 21:00-00:00. This required energy from CCGT plants and resulted in higher prices. Furthermore, exportation to Portugal has increase to 51 GWh/day which increased the production of CCGT’s in no-solar hours as well. Also, prices might increase due to northern reservoirs been forced to release water in March and April because they exceeded safety levels. Hence, hydraulic sources are managing their resources more strategically, releasing water only when prices are high to maximize their profits.

Figure 1. Source: Haya Energy Solutions

This rise in the electricity price in June has provoked a decrease in IVA from 21% to 10% for the next month of July. It could happen because the government has established this reduced rate for the entire year, with one condition: if the average pool price does not surpass 45 euros/MWh in a specific month, the tax will rise to 21% the following month for all consumers, whether they are in the free market or the regulated market, except for severely vulnerable consumers, who will continue to pay 10%.

The total electricity demand in Spain was 19.525 GWh, 1,6% lower than June’23. The power generation mix was dominated by solar generation 22,2% of the total, an increased by 23.8% compared to June’23. Also, to notice that the photovoltaic achieved a new record of daily production with 201 GWh on the 21st of June.

In the Spanish gas market (MIBGAS), there has been an increasing trend in the average spot daily price, rising from 26,5 €/MWh in March to 29,24 €/MWh in April, to 32,01 €/MWh in May to this past month of June 34,55€/MWh. The highest price recorded in June was 36,47€/MWh on the 3rd. On the other hand, the lowest price was 33.4€/MWh on June 7th. This increase is thought to be due to the high demand for non-solar hours.

Regarding CO2 emissions, December’24 prices have increased from 59,62€/t in March to 66,07€/t in April to 72,87€/t in May, however, they slightly decreased to 69,7€/t in June. Spain has proposed at the EU Transport Ministers’ Council in Luxembourg that the ETS system, which taxes CO2 emissions in the EU, should apply to containers instead of ships to prevent a competitive disadvantage for European ports against countries with less stringent environmental standards. Spanish Transport Minister Óscar Puente warns that the current model could divert traffic to non-EU ports and suggests elevating the issue to the International Maritime Organization to ensure a global climate commitment.

Regarding the forecast of Brent crude oil, the monthly average price is 82.81$/bbl and 82,36$/bbl for the upcoming months of August, and September respectively. These prices are in the same range as in May.

The International Energy Agency anticipates a nearly twofold surge in oil demand by 2030, a development that will significantly impact countries and companies heavily reliant on this resource.

Medium and long-term contracts:

The prices for Q4’24 and Q1’25 in June decreased from 84,99€/MWh for Q4’24 to 80,33€/MWh in June and rose from 72,73€/MWh for Q1’25 in May to 73,88 €/MWh in June.

In the long term, the power price for Cal’25 decreased from 69,5€/MWh in May to 67.4€/MWh in June, increased from 55,83€/MWh to 57€/MWh for Cal’26, and stayed practically the same for Cal’27 53,11€/MWh in May, 53,8€/MWh in June.

Last week energy prices experienced a drop in all of Europe, only Spain and Germany are not included. For example, the average weekly price was higher in the last week of June due to the misalignment of European markets and the top price reached in Germany was 2325,83 €/MWh, the highest in Deutsch history.

In June, MIBGas contracts of Q3’24 was traded at 34,98 €/MWh and 37,33 €/MWh for Q4’24. In May, the same quarters were closed with 32,647€/MWh and 35,8 €/MWh. Cal’25 increased from 35,85€/MWh in May to 36,48€/MWh and Cal’26 prices averaged was 31,7€/MWh.

News regarding the LNG, Spain has a large LNG intake volume capacity and in 2023 was the largest importer of Russian LNG due to the six regasification plants connected to the grid. Discussions on the potential difficulties of watching Spain under the ban proposed by the UE (to transshipment and re-export out of Europe) could increase the current volumes arriving in Spain. 

During June, the CO2 contracts of EUADec’24 slightly decreased from 72,87€/t to 69,7 €/t in June. In addition, for EUADec’25, the numbers showed a decrease to 72,51 €/t from 75,83 €/t and EUADec’26 also decreased to 75,3 €/t from 78,63 €/t in May, sharing alone the same lowered trend.  

Currently, EUA CO2 prices have increased by 10€/tonnes with a lot of volatility. A lot of comments about how the elections of the European representatives for parliament would influence the carbon emissions allowance prices, but these can not yet anticipated.

SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)

SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)

EUA price (€/t)

MIBGas price (€/MWh)

Coal Price ($/Tn)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Clean Spark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Spark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

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Each month, one of our experts publishes an article describing his view on a specific topic of the constant changes taking place in the energy market, with special focus on the French market.

Profesional Experience & Education

Diego graduated in Political Economy at King’s College University (London – 2021). He started his professional career in a family business in Madrid as an operations manager. Diego then studied a Master in Management and Master in Computer Science at IE University (Madrid – 2022), during which he participated as an Information Technology (IT) intern in a startup. In May 2023, Diego joined the HES team as an intern specialised in programming models. In his first project, he developed a software tool for modelling the unavailability of the French nuclear fleet. Afterwards, Diego has also participated in the development of new software tools for modelling price curves, generation asset performance and other topics related to the energy market. 

Diego Marroquin

Junior Consultant

Haya Energy-6
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Profesional Experience

Céline joined Haya Energy Solutions in November 2021 as marketing and administration manager. She had a first professional experience in the tourism sector as a social media manager. At HES, her activities are focused on the development of the company’s visibility at European level through: commercial actions, content marketing and development of brand strategy. Céline is also involved in the management of the company’s communication: optimisation of the website (WordPress & Elementor), LinkedIn, publication of the monthly newsletter and the organisation of conferences. Céline participates in energy projects with the clients and acts as coordinator and project manager. Finally, she is in charge of administration (accounting, expenses management, invoicing).   

Education

Céline graduated in Spanish and English Philology at La Sorbonne (France – 2018) and holds a Master’s degree in Project Management and Cultural Tourism (Clermont-Ferrand/ Buenos Aires – 2021). 

Céline Haya Sauvage

Marketing Responsible

Céline Sauvage
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“Decarbonization of the Energy and Transport sectors is arguably today’s main economic driver for the industry.”

Profesional Experience

His career started in civil engineering as a Project Manager in France, Martinique and Australia. Afterwards, he became the General Manager of a subsidiary in Venezuela. In 1992, he established Dalkia in Germany (district heating, cogeneration, and partnerships) and represented Véolia in Thailand. In 2000, he opened the commercial office of Endesa in France to take advantage of the liberalized retail market. From 2006, as a development Manager at Endesa France, he led Endesa’s plan for Combined Cycle generation in France and developed the wind and PV portfolio of Snet at the same time. Philippe Boulanger worked for 3 years at E.ON’s headquarters coordinating the company´s activities in France. He was strongly involved in the French hydro concession renewal project. As a Senior Vice President – Project Director at Solvay Energy Services from April 2012 to February 2014 he was in charge of the H2/Power to gas and European direct market access deployment projects. Philippe has been an HES expert since 2014.

Education

Philippe Boulanger holds engineering degrees both from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (France) and has a combined experience of more than 25 years in energy and infrastructure. In addition to English, Mr. Boulanger is fluent in French, German & Spanish.

Philippe Boulanger

Electricity Expert

HES-Philippe-Boulanger
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“The world is changing. New investors pay particular attention to the energy sector while historical actors adapt their position to the market.”

Profesional Experience

Antonio started his career in the electricity sector in 1991 working as a member of the General Manager’s team at Sevillana de Electricidad (Spain). In 1997, he was appointed head of commercial regulation at Endesa Distribución. In 2000, he joined the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) department of Endesa Europe. He was appointed Managing Director of Endesa Power Trading Ltd (UK) in 2003. A year later, he became responsible for energy management at SNET (France). In 2008, he was appointed Managing Director of SNET (France). In 2009, he became Director of Corporate Development at E.ON France. In 2011, he founded Haya Energy Solutions (HES), a consulting firm focused on optimising the energy management of consumers, producers and retailers of gas and electricity. From 2015 to 2018, Antonio combined the consulting activity at HES with the general management of 2 production facilities in France (2 CCGTs x 410MW), owned by KKR. At the end of 2018, he joined Asterion Industrial Partners, an infrastructure investment fund, as an operating partner. Antonio currently devotes most of his efforts to the Asterion Portfolio, while advising through HES companies in the energy sector in France, Italy, Germany, UK and Spain. 

Education

Antonio graduated from the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros of Seville (Spain) and holds an MBA degree from Deusto University (Spain). 

Antonio Haya

CEO

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