January 2024

Market Analysis

Spot and short-term contracts:  

According to the data registered at the beginning of February, the national energy demand increased (in gross terms) by 1,1% in January compared to January‘23. Renewable energy sources contributed 52,1% of the total energy produced in January, from the 54,3% generated in December. In total, 12.202 GWh of energy was produced from renewables out of which 24,6% from wind generation, 22% from nuclear, and 17,4% from hydraulic technology.  

During January, the Spanish electricity market did not behave as volatile as the previous month’s average prices. The highest spot daily price recorded was 113,83 €/MWh, while the lowest was only 27 €/MWh. The average price of electricity increased from 70 €/MWh in December to 75,22 €/MWh in January. This increase in the average price of 6,7% can be explained by the slight decrease from renewable technology and cooler temperatures experienced some days this month, together with a higher electricity demand.  Nevertheless, the average peak price reached during January is 77,66 €/MWh which is not so different from the average price reached, clearly the impact of renewables decreasing the monthly peak price.  

Figure 1. Source: Haya Energy Solutions

The general observation of the daily monthly values is shown in Figure 1, (see below) of the year view. Thus, comparing January 2023 and 2024, it is clear there is less volatility in prices during the whole month and a lower average electricity price. In addition, the average price is slightly above December’s but still lower than any month of 2023. In terms of price ranges, January showed a shorter interval in comparison with the larger and more volatile range of price enhanced in October and November, even January’23.  

The success of all measures applied from the procedure of the three emergency Council Regulations is clear in the regular trend of the average price experienced in the last 10 months. This is covered by Article 122 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, designed for emergencies. Diving back into 2023, the emergency measures were adopted in the wake of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine to strengtfihen solidarity between member states, accelerate the deployment of renewable energies, and protect EU citizens from excessively high energy prices. 

 The joint efforts paid off as the result of the joint action of EU members: 

  • The price of gas in the EU decreased significantly towards the end of 2022 and remained relatively stable in 2023.  
  • Reduced dependence on Russia: The EU rapidly diversified energy imports away from Russia. EU gas imports decreased from 45-50 % in the pre-crisis years to 15 %. 
  • Reduction of energy demand: EU countries worked together to reduce energy demand. 
  • Security of supply: gas storage facilities were filled to 95 % of their capacity before the winter of 2022-2023 and to more than 99 % of their capacity in October 2023. 
  • Boosting renewable generation. 

As stated by the Third Vice-President and Minister for Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge of Spain, “We are the second country in Europe in wind energy production and the 8th in renewable capacity at the global level”. Also, highlighted that last year also ended with the lowest prices in the electricity market compared to the rest of the neighboring countries, except the Nordic countries. Nevertheless, this was induced by the cap on the gas price used to produce energy in Spain’s “Iberian Exception” that was due on December 31st of 2023, in contrast with northern countries as well which did not implement this type of measure.  

The total electricity demand in Spain in January was 22.185 GWh, already higher than the demand established during December and January 2023 (0,9 % lower). More security with regards to the electricity price people have dear to increase the demand in comparison to the previous year. The good news is the effect of renewable sources on the market price in Spain, normally inducing a lower value if climate conditions stay normal. The power generation mix in December was dominated by hydraulic power (17,4%), nuclear power (22%), and wind power (24,6%). The generation sources oscillated during this month, decreasing Nuclear and hydraulic power by 0.1% and 0.17%, and Wind and solar production decreased by 1,18% and 0,2% respectively. Keeping in mind that on December 27th the Spanish government announced the extension of the maximum period to receive all permits by three years and, informed the high-income earners in the energy industry about the requirement to pay the windfall tax for another year 2024.  

In the Spanish gas market (MIBGAS), there was a slight decrease in the average price from 33,87 €/MWh in December to 29,4 €/MWh in January. The decrease again of the highest price in December was 40,93 €/MWh, compared to the highest price of 34,6 €/MWh in January. Despite this, the lowest price reached was 26,55 €/MWh, a bit lower than the 30,68 €/MWh reached in December. Future prices for the upcoming months of February and March are around 28,6 €/MWh and 28,7 €/MWh respectively. This is the future monthly average for the whole month of January.  

In the market analysis from last month, we commented on the extension of the UE 2022/2577 for one more year until the 31st of December. Thus, the temporary regulation of energy prices and improvement of the security of gas supply is compromised for one more year. This part corresponds to better coordination in relevance to gas purchase, with reliable prices and cross-border gas exchanges. In addition, UE 2022/2578 is sustained until the 31st of January 2025, by which a system against excessively high gas price spikes is established when the gas price in the EU does not reflect prices on the global market.  Furthermore, the regulation 2022/2576 is established under the EU Energy Platform, whereas Prisma operates a demand aggregation and joint purchasing mechanism known as Aggregate EU. The objective is to contribute to the security of supply with a focus on Liquefied Natural Gas. The goal is to match buyers and sellers, ensuring equal treatment and preventing market manipulation. In early 2024, with the effects of the energy crisis still not over, AggregateEU is introducing a different concept of mid-term tenders to address the growing demand for stability and predictability from buyers and sellers of natural gas. Under such tenders, buyers will be able to submit their demand for seasonal 6-month periods (for a minimum of 1,800,000 MWh for LNG and 30,000 for NBP per period), going from April 2024 to October 2029. This is intended to support sellers in identifying buyers who might be interested in a longer trading partnership – i.e. up to 5 years. Mid-term tenders will not only increase the security of supply but also help European industrial players increase their competitiveness. Following 2024, the first mid-term tender will take place on 15th February 2024,  

As of December 31st, European gas storage levels were filled up to 70,17% decreasing from 86,51% of its gas reserves, a strong decrease compared to the 99,65% full capacity at the end of November. The European gas reserves were at an elevated level (above 75%), allowing gas prices to remain low. Spanish gas storage was at 81,62% of full capacity on the 31st of January.  

Regarding CO2 emissions, the EUA Spot monthly average contract decreased from 74,2 €/t in December to 68 €/t in January. Thus, there is a lower price than the one expected for January 2024 at the end of December, which is estimated to be around an average of 71.6 €/t. For the upcoming months, February and March are expected to be even lower, with 65,65 €/t y 65,34 €/t.  

Brent crude oil’s average monthly price saw a drop from 82,03 $/bbl in November to 70,86 $/bbl in December. For this first month of 2024, prices rose to 79,06 $/bbl. This is within the range between the highest and lowest spot price reached in 2023, 93,1 $/bbl in September and 71,8 $/bbl in July. Regarding the forecast price for the next three months of 2024, the average price remains consistent at around 77 $/bbl. Nevertheless, at the end of January Brent crude oil’s average estimated price only for March was already higher than the average, 79,15 $/bbl.  

Regarding this matter, the UK and US launched renewed strikes on Saturday of 3rd February against Houthi militants in Yemen, which are directing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. In addition, the war in Gaza could affect crude supplies in case disturbances happen in the Strait of Hormuz. Last, the dollar rose, reaching high levels in the last three months compared to other major currencies, affecting the rise of Brent.  

Medium and long-term contracts: 

As for the average price estimated over the next quarters of the year at the end of January, prices reached 58,78 €/MWh and 74,85 €/MWh for Q2’24 and Q3’24 respectively. In comparison with the market speculated price at the end of December, 75,8€/MWh and 67,75 €/MWh. Thus, there is a large difference regarding the estimate for Q2’24, almost  12% higher. Still, Q3’24 was lower than expected the previous month. Keep in mind that the average price estimated for Q1’24 in December was 75,8 €/MWh.  

The contract prices for Cal’24 consistently decreased, the average price for Cal’24 from December was 82,25 €/MWh. Leaving behind 2023 and estimation towards Cal’24, Cal’25 prices decreased and reached 60,5 €/MWh from the 70,94 €/MWh shown end of December’23. Furthermore, the price for Cal’26 is 59,38 €/MWh, bringing down the stipulated for Cal’25 so far. 

In December, MIBGas contracts of Q2’24 was traded at 29 €/MWh, lower than the previous month’s estimation of 35,14 €/MWh. Also, Q3’24 and Q4’24 are traded at 29,5 €/MWh and 32,5 €/MWh which is lower than the 34,91 €/MWh and 38,33 €/MWh of each month respectively, from the December conclusion. The Cal’25 slightly decreased from 36,05 €/MWh to 32,05 €/MWh in January and Cal’26 prices averaged 28,76 €/MWh in January.  

In January’23, the CO2 contracts of EUADec’24 decreased from 74,23 €/t to 67,98€/t. EUADec’25 showed a decrease as well to the previous monthly average price, to 69,72 €/t from 76,86 €/t, in December. EUADec’26 instead plotted a monthly average price of 72  €/t in January’24. 

News regarding EUETS that come into effect on the 1st of January is towards the cap on allowed emissions. On the 31st of January, the European Union (EU) released a list that assigns shipping companies to specific administering authorities. This list is important as it indicates where the shipping companies must register to create a Maritime Operator Holding Account (MOHA). The MOHA is necessary for submitting allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).  

It’s important to note that the EU ETS (Emission Trading System) currently covers CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions, while the emissions of CH4 (methane) and N2O (nitrous oxide) will be included from the year 2026. This regulation is applicable to large ships that have more than 5000 gross tonnage and enter ports within the European Union. 

SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)

SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)

EUA price (€/t)

MIBGas price (€/MWh)

Coal Price ($/Tn)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Clean Spark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Spark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

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Each month, one of our experts publishes an article describing his view on a specific topic of the constant changes taking place in the energy market, with special focus on the French market.

Profesional Experience

Céline, a young and dynamic person, had a first experience in the tourism sector as a community manager at Loups du Gévaudan, in Lozère. She joined HES team in November 2021 to diversify her knowledge: learning about the energy sector, specialising in marketing strategies in order to improve the company’s customer relations and, at the same time, developing her skills in coordination and project management.

Education

Céline graduated in Spanish and English Language, Literature and Civilisation at La Sorbonne IV (2018). She also holds a master’s degree II in cultural projects and establishments management, with a special focus on international tourism. She also studied abroad at the University of London (England) and Universidad de Morón (Argentina).

Céline Haya Sauvage

Marketing Responsible

DSC_0323

Investment Advice

“Decarbonization of the Energy and Transport sectors is arguably today’s main economic driver for the industry.”

Profesional Experience

His career started in civil engineering as a Project Manager in France, Martinique and Australia. Afterwards, he became the General Manager of a subsidiary in Venezuela. In 1992, he established Dalkia in Germany (district heating, cogeneration, and partnerships) and represented Véolia in Thailand. In 2000, he opened the commercial office of Endesa in France to take advantage of the liberalized retail market. From 2006, as a development Manager at Endesa France, he led Endesa’s plan for Combined Cycle generation in France and developed the wind and PV portfolio of Snet at the same time. Philippe Boulanger worked for 3 years at E.ON’s headquarters coordinating the company´s activities in France. He was strongly involved in the French hydro concession renewal project. As a Senior Vice President – Project Director at Solvay Energy Services from April 2012 to February 2014 he was in charge of the H2/Power to gas and European direct market access deployment projects. Philippe has been an HES expert since 2014.

Education

Philippe Boulanger holds engineering degrees both from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (France) and has a combined experience of more than 25 years in energy and infrastructure. In addition to English, Mr. Boulanger is fluent in French, German & Spanish.

Philippe Boulanger

Electricity Expert

HES-Philippe-Boulanger

“The world is changing. New investors pay particular attention to the energy sector while historical actors adapt their position to the market.”

Profesional Experience

Antonio started his career in the electricity sector in 1991 working as a member of staff for the General Manager of Sevillana de Electricidad (Spain). In 1997, he was in charge of the commercial regulation at Endesa Distribution. In 2000, he joined Endesa’s European M&A department. He was appointed CEO of Endesa Power Trading Ltd in 2003. He became Head of Energy Management for SNET, France, in 2004 and was appointed CEO of this company in 2008. In 2009, he held the position of Head of Corporate Development for E.ON France. In 2011, he founded Haya Energy Solutions (HES), a consulting firm which assists companies in optimizing their value chain: from strategy definition to day-to-day operations, based on a strong experience and understanding of the energy industry. From 2015 to 2018, Antonio was Chairman and CEO of 2 French CCGTs (2x410MW), owned by KKR. At the end of 2018, he joined Asterion Industrial Partners, a dedicated infrastructure investment fund, as an Operating Partner.

Education

Antonio graduated from the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros of Seville (Spain) and holds an MBA degree from Deusto University (Spain).

Antonio Haya

CEO