July & August 2024
Market Analysis
Spot and short-term contracts:
In July 2024, renewable energy sources contributed 77.7% of the total energy produced. This is higher than the 58.7% produced in June, 63% in May, and 64.6% in April. Specifically, photovoltaics accounted for 24% of the total energy produced, nuclear energy for 20.8%, and wind energy for 17.4%. In August, the contribution of renewables decreased slightly to 74.7% of the total generation. Photovoltaic energy accounted for 23%, nuclear energy for 21.7%, wind energy for 16.6%, and combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) generation for 14.7%. The electricity demand was 21,235 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in July and 20,776 GWh in August. Both months saw an increase in demand compared to the same months in 2023. The average electricity price was €72/MWh in July and €91.05/MWh in August. In July, the highest spot hourly price reached was €142.48/MWh on July 31st, while the lowest was – €1.01/MWh on July 6th. For August, the maximum price reached was €165.01/MWh and the minimum reached was – €0.95/MWh.
Figure 1. Source: Haya Energy Solutions
The heatwave from July, left prices especially high considering the rather erratic behavior of the electricity market in 2024. For instance, back in April the first negative prices in history were registered in the “pool” due to the majority presence of renewables – solar, wind and hydro – generating more energy to the grid, which led many times to price plummets.
With high temperatures and little wind forecast, the electricity sector had probably to turn more to gas to meet demand. It is possible to contrast this with the higher production from CCGT technology in July and August (13% and 14.7%).
In the Spanish gas market (MIBGAS), there has been an increasing trend in the average spot price from June 34.55 €/MWh to July 32.49 €/MWh and August 38.61 €/MWh. The maximum prices reached were on the 31st of August with 41.36 €/MWh and 31st of July 36.39 €/MWh.
Gas prices are fluctuating due to ongoing outages in Norwegian gas pipelines, reduced Australian LNG exports, and decreased LNG exports from the US Gulf Coast at the start of the hurricane season. Moreover, on the geopolitical front, the recent attack by the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah has escalated the conflict in the Middle East.
Regarding CO2 emissions, December’24 prices have slightly decreased to 68.17 €/t in July from 69,7€/t in June and increased to 71.26 €/t in August.
Regarding the forecast of Brent crude oil for the rest of 2024, the monthly average price for October, November and December is 78.88 $/bbl, 78.09 $/bbl, and 77.51 $/bbl. Maximum prices were 82.30 $/bbl, 81.38 $/bbl, and 80.71 $/bbl respectively.
Brent settled at its lowest level since June 2023 due to concerns about U.S. and Chinese demand overshadowing support from a significant withdrawal from U.S. oil inventories and OPEC+’s decision on Thursday to delay planned oil output increases. Additionally, signals that Libya’s rival factions may be nearing an agreement to resolve the dispute that has halted the country’s oil exports also contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices this week.
Medium and long-term contracts:
The prices for Q4’24 and Q1’25 in July were 82 €/MWh and 76 €/MWh respectively and for Q2’25 of 51.95 €/MWh. For August, these prices were increased to 92.75 €/MWh, 82.73€/MWh and 60.41 €/MWh.
In the long term, the power price for Cal’25 increased from 67.4€/MWh in June to 70.98 €/MWh and from 57€/MWh to 59.1 €/MWh for Cal’26 in July. During August, the same prices rose in both produces to 79.45 €/MWh and 63.09€/MWh.
Spain’s renewable energy push has significantly impacted the market, resulting in a 40% reduction in electricity prices compared to a scenario without additional solar and wind capacity since 2019.
However, the behaviour of power prices in the future was still “very uncertain” due to several drivers, including the pace of renewables construction, the progress in terms of electrification related to demand and the development storage units
MIBGas contracts of Q4’24 in July were at 36.16 €/MWh, Q1’25 at 37.71 €/MWh and Q2’25 35.82 €/MWh. Cal’25 did not experience much change and remained close to 36,48€/MWh in June at 36.55 €/MWh and Cal’26 prices averaged price at 32.41€/MWh. Looking at the same products over August, Q4’24 is at 40.20 €/MWh, Q1’25 at 41.41 €/MWh, and Q2’25 at 39.58 €/MWh, all of them increased compared to July. For the Cal’25 comparison, the price increased to 40.17 €/MWh and 34.61 €/MWh for Cal’26.
The United States has been the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) so far in 2024, shipping a record 56.9 million metric tons during the first eight months. However, a drop in prices and changing export volumes may impact its leading position, as demand in Europe remains low and competition in Asian markets grows.
In addition, for EUADec’25, the numbers showed a decrease to 70.85 €/t in July from 72,51 €/t in June and EUADec’26 also decreased from 75.3 €/t in June to 73.48 €/t. During August, the CO2 contracts of EUADec’25 were at 73.75€/t for 2025, and EUADec’26 is at 71.26 €/t.
The FuelEU Maritime regulation, effective from 1st of January 2025, aims to increase the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels in international maritime transport within the EU. It sets requirements on the annual average GHG intensity of energy used by ships trading within the EU or European Economic Area (EEA), measured as GHG emissions per energy unit (gCO2e/MJ). Emissions are calculated in a well-to-wake perspective, considering emissions from the extraction, cultivation, production, and transportation of fuel, as well as those from energy used on board the ship.
SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)
SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)
EUA price (€/t)
MIBGas price (€/MWh)
Coal Price ($/Tn)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%
Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%
