October 2023

Market Analysis

Spot and short-term contracts:

National demand increased throughout October by 1.3%, in comparison to October last year (2022). 50.7% of total energy produced in October came from renewable production and generated 25.5% (10.609 GWh) more than last year. Only wind energy production increased by 15.4% set against October 2022. Besides, 69.8% of the total energy produced in October came from non-CO2 emission.

The Spanish electricity market experienced significant price volatility during October. There was a large contrast between the highest value reached 141 €/MWh and the lowest of 5 €/MWh. The average price declined to 86 €/MWh from 103 €/MWh in September. In terms of m-o-m comparison, September-October had a 16% decrease. The reduction of the annual inflation on the eurozone might have had an impact on m-o-m decrease, from 4.9% to 2.9%, respectively. Furthermore, as described below [PH6] gas price increased m-o-m, showing the strength of the impact coming from renewable generation sources.

As shown in figure 1, the highest price reached in October was like the values registered in January 2023, the same applies to the lowest value of the month. Below, we see the average, maximum, and smallest price is depleted, including m-o-m flows in percentage.

The general insight of the daily values reached per month in 2023 (Figure 2) shows an overall increase during the last quarter of year. Despite the hints of an increasing trend of the average price in the end of September, October lowered the average price to 83 €/MWh. Nevertheless, the monthly distribution was wider during October in comparison to previous months, and October’s monthly median stayed above 100 €/MWh. Larger volatility was seen on energy price during October due to couple of incidents: OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) reached limits and diminished its spare capacity; Israel-Hamas conflict which altered the rise of oil prices a 7% within the same week. These are important causes for energy prices to rise, including the increase of national power demand [PH5].

Total electricity demand in Spain amounted from 19.7 TWh in September to 19.8 TWh in October. With regards to power generation typology, the technologies with the highest participation in the mix in October were nuclear 18%, CCGTs 19%, and wind 28%. All the power generation technologies remained at similar levels as September, with only wind (11%) and hydraulic (3%) power generation higher than the previous month.

[PH1] The LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity) of renewable generation technologies has experienced a potent drop, pushing forward the process of energy transition. In terms of investment, this downward trend encourages investors to increase its implementation. Renewable energy production generated 50.71% of the total energy production of the month, higher in comparison with the 42.1% of renewable generated during September. This slight increase seems to be influenced by the increase of wind power generation in October. In turn, this type of generation has been pushed by the weather conditions (storms) that occurred in Spain in the last weeks of October.

As for the Spanish gas market (MIBGAS), a slight increase was seen in the average price for October, at 42.2 €/MWh compared to 36.4 €/MWh registered in September, with the highest price of 51.3 €/MWh compared to September’s at 42.5 €/MWh. At the end of October, the European gas storage was filled up to 99.31% of capacity and Spain an estimation of 100.42% was given.

Regarding CO2 emissions, the EUA Spot contract decreased from 82.2 €/t in September to 80.9 €/t in October. This is described as a cause of a weakened manufacturing sector in the Eurozone, concerning a decrease in EUA demand.

In the case of oil, Brent prices increased from 80.4 $/bbl  in September to 88.5 $/bbl. In addition to the mentioned above [PH4], the effects of a decrease of production in Saudi Arabia and Russia these months made the highest price to reach 92.38$/bbl on the 19th of October.


Medium and long-term contracts:

With regards to electricity futures (OMIP), during October prices fluctuated more than in September. The estimation of energy price for Q124 in October expressed a higher average value of 115.99 €/MWh, compared to the previous month of 113.8 €/MWh. In the case of Q224, prices are towards a mean value of 96.91 €/MWh.

Cal’24 contract prices showed a consistent increase in comparison to September, reaching 115.91 €/MWh compared to 108.3 €/MWh in September. Moreover, Cal’25 prices rose during October and reached 93 €/MWh from the 84.1 €/MWh reached in September.

In the case of MIBGas contracts, futures were traded at 50.95 €/MWh in October increasing from 42 €/MWh in September on last forecast for Q423. As for Cal’24, the contract closed the month at an average price of 50.2 €/MWh, increasing from 49.3 €/MWh in September. Concerning future gas prices, the awareness of the provision due to the labor conflicts in Australian plants are still present, with renewed strikes reviving the risk of gas supply. Regarding supply from Norway, once the maintenance period was over, it at once affected the gas price in Europe. However, gas prices were mainly altered due to the conflict of Israel-Hamas, since Egypt uses Israeli gas, to meet domestic demand and to export partially to Europe. Even though it is only a small proportion, it is still a threat for energy markets because it can affect the transport of crude oil and LNG through Persian Gulf.

To conclude with CO2, EUADec’23, Dec’24, and Dec’25 contracts showed a slight decrease and closed October with an average price of around €81.5/t, €85.5/t, and €89.3/t, respectively. It is expected that prices will be far from where CO2 EU ETS were initially estimated for 2025. A yearly 4.3% decrease from 2024-2027 will drop out the market supply. In addition, a new European Commission will be in place by the end of 2024, probably carrying changes and increasing ambiguity regarding this CO2 EU ETS market until then. A revision of the ETS directive was launched by the European commission with the idea of improving market monitoring. Relevant to energy and ETS, new amendments related to the transparency and the integrity of the carbon market were introduced, including obligation to register in the Union register of bilateral emissions allowance transactions.

SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)

SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)

EUA price (€/t)

MIBGas price (€/MWh)

Coal Price ($/Tn)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Clean Spark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Spark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

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Each month, one of our experts publishes an article describing his view on a specific topic of the constant changes taking place in the energy market, with special focus on the French market.

Profesional Experience

Céline, a young and dynamic person, had a first experience in the tourism sector as a community manager at Loups du Gévaudan, in Lozère. She joined HES team in November 2021 to diversify her knowledge: learning about the energy sector, specialising in marketing strategies in order to improve the company’s customer relations and, at the same time, developing her skills in coordination and project management.


Céline graduated in Spanish and English Language, Literature and Civilisation at La Sorbonne IV (2018). She also holds a master’s degree II in cultural projects and establishments management, with a special focus on international tourism. She also studied abroad at the University of London (England) and Universidad de Morón (Argentina).

Céline Haya Sauvage

Marketing Responsible


Investment Advice

“Decarbonization of the Energy and Transport sectors is arguably today’s main economic driver for the industry.”

Profesional Experience

His career started in civil engineering as a Project Manager in France, Martinique and Australia. Afterwards, he became the General Manager of a subsidiary in Venezuela. In 1992, he established Dalkia in Germany (district heating, cogeneration, and partnerships) and represented Véolia in Thailand. In 2000, he opened the commercial office of Endesa in France to take advantage of the liberalized retail market. From 2006, as a development Manager at Endesa France, he led Endesa’s plan for Combined Cycle generation in France and developed the wind and PV portfolio of Snet at the same time. Philippe Boulanger worked for 3 years at E.ON’s headquarters coordinating the company´s activities in France. He was strongly involved in the French hydro concession renewal project. As a Senior Vice President – Project Director at Solvay Energy Services from April 2012 to February 2014 he was in charge of the H2/Power to gas and European direct market access deployment projects. Philippe has been an HES expert since 2014.


Philippe Boulanger holds engineering degrees both from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (France) and has a combined experience of more than 25 years in energy and infrastructure. In addition to English, Mr. Boulanger is fluent in French, German & Spanish.

Philippe Boulanger

Electricity Expert


“The world is changing. New investors pay particular attention to the energy sector while historical actors adapt their position to the market.”

Profesional Experience

Antonio started his career in the electricity sector in 1991 working as a member of staff for the General Manager of Sevillana de Electricidad (Spain). In 1997, he was in charge of the commercial regulation at Endesa Distribution. In 2000, he joined Endesa’s European M&A department. He was appointed CEO of Endesa Power Trading Ltd in 2003. He became Head of Energy Management for SNET, France, in 2004 and was appointed CEO of this company in 2008. In 2009, he held the position of Head of Corporate Development for E.ON France. In 2011, he founded Haya Energy Solutions (HES), a consulting firm which assists companies in optimizing their value chain: from strategy definition to day-to-day operations, based on a strong experience and understanding of the energy industry. From 2015 to 2018, Antonio was Chairman and CEO of 2 French CCGTs (2x410MW), owned by KKR. At the end of 2018, he joined Asterion Industrial Partners, a dedicated infrastructure investment fund, as an Operating Partner.


Antonio graduated from the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros of Seville (Spain) and holds an MBA degree from Deusto University (Spain).

Antonio Haya