April 2023

Market Analysis

Spot and short-term contracts:

With lingering uncertainties surrounding the possible changes and implementation of the European Commission’s proposed electricity market reform, and with China’s energy consumption continuing to grow (more than 3.5% in Q1 2023 compared to the same quarter in 2022), markets are reacting to this context with mixed signals. Some commodities, which had seen a steady decline in their prices, have seen their trend changed, while some others have remained stable. The end of the summer and the arrival of the winter season will be crucial in setting the tone for the coming months.

In terms of prices, the Spanish electricity market experienced a high volatility in April, but still slightly lower than in the previous month. The maximum price reached was over 114 €/MWh, while the minimum was around 16 €/MWh. This volatility was the result of a high share of renewables in the monthly generation mix. The average electricity price was 73.73 €/MWh, down 18% compared to March and also lower (-62%) compared to the same month last year, when the market experienced a price spike following the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict.

In gross terms, electricity demand in March totalled 17.7 TWh, down 14% m-o-m. This figure represents a 9.7% reduction compared to the same month last year, bringing the daily average to over 590 GWh.

On the generation side, the technologies with the largest presence in the monthly generation mix were wind, nuclear and solar (22.5%, 21.7% and 16.9%, respectively). The former saw its share fall by 5.4% m-o-m, although it remained the largest source of generation. Despite the significant presence of renewables last month, the share of renewables vs. non-renewables decreased slightly from 53%-47% in March to 52%-48% in April. In terms of installed capacity, there was no difference compared to last month.

As for the Spanish gas market (MIBGAS), a decrease in prices was observed compared to the previous month. The monthly average spot price for gas in April was 37.9 €/MWh, a decrease of 13% m-o-m, continuing the downward trend already observed in February and March, and resulting in the “Iberian Exception” mechanism not being applied during the whole month.

In terms of emissions, EUA Dec23 contract reached an average price of 92.7 €/t on the EEX in March, an increase of 1% m-o-m.

In the case of oil, an increase in Brent prices was observed last month (after several months of a downward trend), with Brent Jun’23 contract reaching an average value of $83.26/bbl.

Medium and long-term contracts:

As regards electricity futures (OMIP), some products saw their prices increase while others lost some ground compared to the previous month. By way of example, quarterly contracts fell by around 2% when compared to their March values. On the other hand, Cal’24 and Cal’25 prices rose by an average 3% m-o-m. The month ended with values below 120 €/MWh for Q3 and 132 €/MWh for Q4 2023, while Cal 2024 closed the month at 105.4 €/MWh.

Following the trend of the last few months, we have seen MIBGas prices stop their downward trend. Futures for Q3 are down by almost 6%, with prices around 50 €/MWh. Average MIBGas prices for Q3 2023 were around 42 €/MWh, while Q4 traded slightly higher, averaging 49.3 €/MWh and showing an increase of 3% m-o-m. As for Cal’24, the contract closed the month at an average price of 52.13 €/MWh which, in this case, represents an increase of more than 7% compared to March 2023.

However, despite the fall in prices seen in recent months, it is worth bearing in mind that a total cut in Russian gas supplies to the EU is still a possibility and, if we add to this the recovery and sustained increase in Chinese demand (and the resulting uncertainties regarding the availability of gas for next winter), prices could be seriously affected and we could end up facing a radically different scenario.

Finally, EUA futures prices consistently showed a steady upward trend over the last month. EUADec’23, Dec’24 and Dec’25 contracts increased by 1% compared to March, and closed the month at around €93/t, €97/t and €102/t, respectively.

SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)

SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)

EUA price (€/t)

MIBGas price (€/MWh)

Coal Price ($/Tn)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Clean Spark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Spark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

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Each month, one of our experts publishes an article describing his view on a specific topic of the constant changes taking place in the energy market, with special focus on the French market.

Profesional Experience

Céline, a young and dynamic person, had a first experience in the tourism sector as a community manager at Loups du Gévaudan, in Lozère. She joined HES team in November 2021 to diversify her knowledge: learning about the energy sector, specialising in marketing strategies in order to improve the company’s customer relations and, at the same time, developing her skills in coordination and project management.

Education

Céline graduated in Spanish and English Language, Literature and Civilisation at La Sorbonne IV (2018). She also holds a master’s degree II in cultural projects and establishments management, with a special focus on international tourism. She also studied abroad at the University of London (England) and Universidad de Morón (Argentina).

Céline Haya Sauvage

Marketing Responsible

DSC_0323

Investment Advice

“Decarbonization of the Energy and Transport sectors is arguably today’s main economic driver for the industry.”

Profesional Experience

His career started in civil engineering as a Project Manager in France, Martinique and Australia. Afterwards, he became the General Manager of a subsidiary in Venezuela. In 1992, he established Dalkia in Germany (district heating, cogeneration, and partnerships) and represented Véolia in Thailand. In 2000, he opened the commercial office of Endesa in France to take advantage of the liberalized retail market. From 2006, as a development Manager at Endesa France, he led Endesa’s plan for Combined Cycle generation in France and developed the wind and PV portfolio of Snet at the same time. Philippe Boulanger worked for 3 years at E.ON’s headquarters coordinating the company´s activities in France. He was strongly involved in the French hydro concession renewal project. As a Senior Vice President – Project Director at Solvay Energy Services from April 2012 to February 2014 he was in charge of the H2/Power to gas and European direct market access deployment projects. Philippe has been an HES expert since 2014.

Education

Philippe Boulanger holds engineering degrees both from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (France) and has a combined experience of more than 25 years in energy and infrastructure. In addition to English, Mr. Boulanger is fluent in French, German & Spanish.

Philippe Boulanger

Electricity Expert

HES-Philippe-Boulanger

“The world is changing. New investors pay particular attention to the energy sector while historical actors adapt their position to the market.”

Profesional Experience

Antonio started his career in the electricity sector in 1991 working as a member of staff for the General Manager of Sevillana de Electricidad (Spain). In 1997, he was in charge of the commercial regulation at Endesa Distribution. In 2000, he joined Endesa’s European M&A department. He was appointed CEO of Endesa Power Trading Ltd in 2003. He became Head of Energy Management for SNET, France, in 2004 and was appointed CEO of this company in 2008. In 2009, he held the position of Head of Corporate Development for E.ON France. In 2011, he founded Haya Energy Solutions (HES), a consulting firm which assists companies in optimizing their value chain: from strategy definition to day-to-day operations, based on a strong experience and understanding of the energy industry. From 2015 to 2018, Antonio was Chairman and CEO of 2 French CCGTs (2x410MW), owned by KKR. At the end of 2018, he joined Asterion Industrial Partners, a dedicated infrastructure investment fund, as an Operating Partner.

Education

Antonio graduated from the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros of Seville (Spain) and holds an MBA degree from Deusto University (Spain).

Antonio Haya

CEO