Current nuclear availability is sitting at or above the historical maximum band, and has remained close to the upper bound of the past month’s range. This is consistent with EDF’s latest operational figures: nuclear output in October 2025 reached 30.4 TWh, with cumulative year-to-date production of 299.5 TWh, which EDF explicitly attributes to good reactor availability and well-managed outages. EDF FR Over the 14 October–14 November window, RTE’s availability data and EDF’s transparency feeds show a stable fleet with no large unplanned nuclear outages, and only routine, short-duration events and planned work. As a result, the fleet is entering winter from a position of unusual strength, with availability hugging or exceeding historical highs rather than lagging below them as in recent years; EDF has therefore stated that they are increasing the range of nuclear production in France for 2025, and are now estimating production between 365 and 375 TWh, something our own prediction remains in line with at 372 TWh.

Overall, the combination of high availability in the graph and EDF’s statements on “good availability of the reactors in operation” supports the view that the present winter outlook is more robust than previous seasons. While the usual caveat remains—that even a handful of unplanned events can change the picture quickly—the last month has not seen any major nuclear surprises in EDF’s or RTE’s official disclosures.