Spanish Market Analysis
Analysis of the Spanish energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in Spain and in other relevant markets such as France.
October 2025
Key figures of the month
Table of Contents
Key figures of the month
Main takeaways
During the last month, electricity prices in Europe have continued on an upward trend compared to those recorded in the previous month. France remains the country with the lowest prices on the continent, averaging 57.50 €/MWh, followed by Spain (75.75 €/MWh) and Germany (79.61 €/MWh). The latter two markets, characterized by an energy mix with a high share of renewables, are particularly influenced by weather conditions.
An increase in electricity demand, combined with a decline in wind and solar generation across most European countries, contributed to a moderate price rebound during the first half of the month. Nevertheless, France, supported by its extensive nuclear generation capacity, was able to mitigate this impact and maintain the most competitive prices in the region. In Germany, however, quarter-hourly peaks exceeding 400 €/MWh were recorded, the highest levels since the beginning of the year.
Meanwhile, the Italian market posted an average price above 110 €/MWh, nearly double the French average. This significant differential is mainly due to Italy’s strong reliance on natural gas in its generation mix, which exposes the country to greater price volatility associated with this commodity.
Regarding the gas market, prices in Europe showed relative stability and calm during the reporting period. However, the onset of winter could alter this trend: a drop in temperatures would likely increase gas demand and put upward pressure on prices.
Finally, the rise in EU carbon allowance (EUA) prices observed in October has had a direct impact on carbon-intensive technologies, further contributing to higher electricity prices across European markets.
Energy demand and generation mix
In October 2025, electricity demand in Spain reached 20,217 GWh, while total generation amounted to 21,847 GWh. Of this output, approximately 1,270 GWh were scheduled for export to other countries.
Compared with September 2025, demand recorded a slight decrease, whereas generation increased over the same period. However, when compared with October 2024, electricity demand remained relatively stable, while total production was higher in 2025, reflecting a stronger supply balance and an overall more robust generation capacity within the Spanish electricity system.
In October 2025, Spain’s electricity generation was evenly split between renewable and non-renewable sources, with each group accounting for approximately half of total production.
The main source of generation was CCGT, contributing 23.6% of total output, significantly higher than the 17.2% recorded in September and the 20.2% observed in the same month of the previous year. This trend reflects an increased reliance on natural gas to meet demand amid lower renewable resource availability.
In second place was wind power, which represented 20.3% of the national mix, followed by solar photovoltaic, with 18.6%, after having led the ranking for the past five consecutive months. Despite this monthly decline (down from 23.2% in September), solar generation rose sharply year-on-year by 45.3%, increasing its share from 11.4% in October 2024 to the current level.
Nuclear power ranked fourth, accounting for 16.9% of total generation—a figure lower than both the previous month and the same period last year. This decline was mainly due to scheduled outages at the Cofrentes, Almaraz II, and Vandellós II nuclear plants.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Energy prices & market panorama
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
In October 2025, the average wholesale electricity price in Spain stood at 75.8 €/MWh, reaching its highest level since February. This figure represents a 24% increase compared to September, driven mainly by higher electricity demand and lower renewable generation during the month.
It is worth noting that October 2025 marked the first month of implementation of the quarter-hour pricing system in the Spanish electricity market, transitioning from 24 hourly prices per day to 96 quarter-hourly prices. This new methodology has enabled greater price granularity and a more accurate response to real-time supply and demand fluctuations.
The month was characterized by high price dispersion, reflecting system volatility. There were days with very low prices, such as October 5 and 23, when the average price did not exceed 25 €/MWh, contrasting with other periods (October 15–17) when the daily average price approached 110 €/MWh. This pronounced variability highlights the increasing sensitivity of the market to weather conditions and renewable generation availability.
In October 2025, the average natural gas price in the Spanish market stood at 31.18 €/MWh, slightly below the 31.83 €/MWh recorded in September, representing a moderate decline compared to the previous month.
The most notable feature during the period was the overall stability of prices, which was only briefly interrupted by a slight rebound at the beginning of the month. Specifically, on October 3, the price reached a low of 30.24 €/MWh, before rising to 32.38 €/MWh on October 7. From that point onward, the market showed a stable evolution, with minor fluctuations around the monthly average, reflecting a balanced relationship between supply and demand and the absence of significant tensions in international gas markets.
Market trends and futures
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Finally, EU carbon allowance (EUA) forward prices for December 2025 and December 2026 showed a 3% increase compared to the previous month. This upward movement continues to put pressure on carbon-intensive technologies and could exert upward influence on electricity prices in the medium term.
During October 2025, Spanish electricity forward prices were marked by relative stability. The only notable movement was a 4.2% decline in December 2025, while for Q2 2026 showed a modest 2% increase, reflecting expectations of higher future demand.
In the gas market, widespread and significant declines were observed across all products and time horizons analysed. This downward trend was supported by external factors, such as the OPEC+ announcement to increase crude oil output by 137,000 barrels per day starting in December, along with confirmation that no further monthly increases are planned between January and March 2026. These developments have helped to soften medium-term energy price expectations.
Regarding storage levels, natural gas reserves in the European Union currently stand at 82.83% of capacity, notably lower than the 95.21% recorded a year earlier. This figure is particularly relevant as winter approaches, when gas consumption typically rises due to heating demand. In Spain, gas reserves currently stand at 86.7%, compared to 100.22% in the same period of 2024.
It is worth noting that since July 2025, the European Parliament has relaxed the 90% minimum storage requirement, allowing Member States to reach this target at any point between 1 October and 1 December each year. Once the threshold is achieved, it is no longer mandatory to maintain it until year-end, providing countries with greater operational flexibility.
SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)
SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)
EUA price (€/t)
MIBGas price (€/MWh)
Coal Price ($/Tn)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%
Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%
