April 2024
Market Analysis
Spot and short-term contracts:
Records from the beginning of May show a decrease of the national energy demand (in gross terms) by 0,9% in March compared to April‘23. Renewable energy sources contributed 64.6% in April, lower than 65,2% of the total energy produced in March and higher than 59,55% generated in February. As a result, a total of 13.515 GWh of energy was produced from renewables out of which 22,2% was from wind generation (seventh consecutive month generating the highest volumes within the category of renewable), 19,7% from hydraulic technology, and solar photovoltaic 18,8%.
During April, the Spanish electricity market was volatile in comparison to the previous month’s values range of prices. The highest spot hourly price recorded was 109,9 €/MWh on the 25th of April, while the lowest was -1,5 €/MWh on the 21st. Since the beginning of the year, the average price of electricity has decreased from 75,22 €/MWh in January to 37,63 €/MWh in February and decreased again to 20,34 €/MWh in March to 13,67 €/MWh in April. A decrease of 32,8% in comparison to the average in March and a decrease of 63,7% in comparison to February’24. The decrease may be correlated with the decrease of electricity generated in April and lower energy demand.
Figure 1. Source: Haya Energy Solutions
In contrast with other European electricity markets, the Spanish market resisted a general increasing trend of prices, mainly due to gas and CO2 increases of price. Nevertheless, the generation from renewable technology increased in contrast with other markets and contributed to an even lower mean price for April.
The total electricity demand in Spain was 18.938 GWh, 0,6% higher than April’23. The power generation mix was dominated by wind generation 22,2% of the total, however, the generation by wind decreased by 5 % compared to March’24. Other generation sources oscillated during this month, as nuclear increasing by a 1% in April. On the other hand, hydraulic production and solar photovoltaic decreased by 1% and increased by 5% respectively, in comparison to March’24.
In the Spanish gas market (MIBGAS), there was a slight increase in the average spot daily price from 25,64€/MWh in February to 26,5 €/MWh in March and to 29,24 €/MWh in April. The tendency of highest prices recorded was from 28,91 €/MWh in February, to 29,11€/MWh in March, to 33,05 €/MWh in April. Meanwhile, the lowest price trends were recorded from 25,04€/MWh in February, to 23,3€/MWh in March to 26€/MWh in April.
Regarding CO2 emissions, December’24 prices have increased slightly from 57,6€/t in February to 59,62€/t in March to 66,07 €/t in April. Moreover, checking December’25 we can see the exact same happens, the price rises from 59,72€/t to 61,87€/t. For May and April, the prices are towards the forecast for December’24, with an average of 64€/t.
Regarding the forecast of Brent crude oil, the monthly average price is 89$/bbl, 88$/bbl and 87$/bbl for the upcoming months of June, July, and August respectively. These prices are higher than those estimated back in February, 83-84$/bbl indicating the establishment of higher prices for the rest of the year.
More deeply, the production of Brent oil was reduced for the OPEP, probably influencing the increase of future price for the upcoming months. More concretely, Nigeria, Iraq, and Venezuela were among those countries lowering their oil production. The OPEP agreed to lower the oil production at the beginning of the year to avoid financial surplus risks in oil prices, and now these measures are extended until the end of June.
Medium and long-term contracts:
The prices for Q424 and Q125 in March rose to 69,6€/MWh and 58€/MWh respectively. In April power prices were 66,65€/MWh for Q324 and 73,78 €/MWh in Q424.
In the long term, the power price for Cal’25 reached 59€/MWh from 55,5€/MWh, 53,9 €/MWh from 51,84€/MWh for Cal’26, 51,33€/MWh from 52,3€/MWh for Cal’27 in April. All increased except for 2027 which was lowered.
In April, MIBGas contracts of Q324 were traded at 29,47€/MWh and 32,54 €/MWh for Q424. In March, the same quarters were closed with 27,07 €/MWh and 29,75 €/MWh. Cal’25 increased from 29,73 €/MWh in March to 32,84€/MWh and Cal’26 prices averaged 29,51 €/MWh €/MWh.
During April, the CO2 contracts of EUADec’24 remained at 59,6 €/t. Instead, for EUADec’25, the numbers showed an increase to 71,16 €/t and EUADec’26 increased to 71,16 €/t in April from 64,05€/t in March, sharing alone the same upraised trend.
Now with upcoming higher temperatures, energy demand is expected to increase through thermal comfort. Nonetheless, the results made by the National Statistics Institute indicated an important fact, which is based on the lack of preparation against heat waves in homes mostly in the south of Spain. More explicitly, the data points to 36.2% of households struggling with overall housing costs. This, against an increase of electricity, makes it senseless to pay for heat conform; increasing energy demand and energy cost.
SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)
SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)
EUA price (€/t)
MIBGas price (€/MWh)
Coal Price ($/Tn)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%
Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%