Key Insights from the French Market Analysis
Analysis of the French energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in France and in other relevant markets such as Spain.
Table of Contents
April 2026
Key figures of the month
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
In April 2026, electricity spot prices across the main European markets declined compared with the previous month, with Spain as the only exception, posting a slightly higher average price. In the forward market, however, Power Cal’27 remained broadly stable across all countries, with price levels staying within a relatively similar range to those seen in March.
France overtook Spain as the lowest-priced power market in the region, averaging 40.8 €/MWh, a sharp decrease from 63.3 €/MWh in the previous month. Spain ranked as the second-lowest market, with an average of 42.4 €/MWh, slightly above the 40.3 €/MWh recorded in March. The UK and Germany both moved close to the 83 €/MWh level. Overall, April once again highlighted a wide divergence in spot prices across Europe, largely reflecting each market’s generation structure and, in particular, its level of exposure to gas-fired technologies as the marginal price-setting source, as is reflected in Italy.
April was also a record month for solar PV generation across the main European markets. New all-time daily highs for April were reached in France (149 GWh), Germany (444 GWh) and Italy (163 GWh). This strong solar output throughout the month meant that, on days combining high renewable generation with the typically lower electricity demand seen over weekends, extremely negative prices were recorded. This was particularly evident on Sunday, 26 April, when the French spot price fell to -478.8 €/MWh at 14:00, setting a new record.
On the gas side, average spot prices were broadly stable around the 44 €/MWh mark across most markets, with Germany standing slightly higher at around 46 €/MWh on average. Compared with March, gas prices declined across all countries, falling by around 8 €/MWh in most markets. Gas Cal’27 also showed a moderate month-on-month decrease across all countries.
Gas price formation during the month remained largely driven by the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States, and, in particular, by developments affecting the transit of energy commodities through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, any headline ranging from a potential ceasefire announcement to the breakdown of negotiations had a direct impact on gas prices.
As for CO₂, prices increased from around 72 €/t in March to 77 €/t in April, breaking the downward trend that had started with the escalation of the conflict in Iran at the end of February.
Overall, stronger renewable generation and lower gas prices helped ease electricity market prices across most European markets, despite the rebound in CO₂ prices.
Energy demand and generation mix
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
In April 2026, total generation in France reached 39,693 GWh.
Nuclear power remains the backbone of the French generation mix, playing a key role in ensuring system security of supply. Nuclear generation represented 70.3% of April’s energy mix, aligned with previous month nuclear generation. As in March 2026, CCGTs participation has been limited (1.3%) due to strong hydro, wind and solar PV generation.
In the matter of renewable energy sources, as you can see from the graph, hydro production comes second in the total energy mix, representing a 9.6% out of the total production (down on previous months) and first in the renewable energy category. Hydroelectric stocks fell from 888 GWh (at the beginning of April – the lowest level of the year and since 2023) to 1,177 GWh (at the end of April), approaching the levels seen in April 2025 (1212 GWh). Hydroelectric stocks have been fluctuating considerably since the start of 2026. The critical moment will occur in the coming weeks (mid-June), when reserves will need to be replenished. Finally, photovoltaic production has increased compared to the previous months, as winter comes to an end and sunnier conditions begin.
Hydroelectric stocks – Source: RTE
Energy prices & market panorama
Power prices initially declined early in April, following weaker gas prices and optimism over a potential geopolitical resolution. However, strong renewable generation, especially solar, led to extreme negative price events mid- to late-month, highlighting structural oversupply issues. Record lows, including deeply negative hourly prices, marked key downside moments. Toward the end of April, rising gas prices pushed spot power prices up. Overall, the month was characterized by high volatility, with both sharp declines and modest recoveries.
According to the Sfen (French Society of nuclear energy, Aurora Energy Research analysis), French nuclear output plays a stabilizing role in European prices and emissions, significantly lowering both on a daily basis. The system shows strong resilience under normal conditions, but stress scenarios highlight major upside risks if nuclear availability drops. In a context of 70% increase of gas prices, French wholesale power prices would be up by 50% in average, compared to 60% in average in the other European countries. Extreme weather with low renewable output would further amplify price spikes and increase reliance on French imports. Overall, nuclear acts as a key buffer, with downside risk (price spikes) concentrated in disruption scenarios.
Aprils’ average spot electricity price in France reached 40.8 €/MWh, a 3.4% decrease compared to April-25’s levels (42.2 €/MWh). As the graph shows, prices fluctuated considerably throughout the month with the minimum spot price reaching -478.8 €/MWh on the 26th of April (new record), and the maximum spot price reaching 239.1€/MWh on the 1st April. Day-ahead prices frequently dropped to very low or near-zero levels around midday (16.6% of April’s hours below 5 €/MWh), reflecting increased solar generation. In contrast, peak hours experienced sharp price spikes, with 2% of hourly prices exceeding 150 €/MWh.
In terms of cross-border flows, France remained a net exporter across most interconnections, with the exception of Spain. Hourly export levels exceeded 18 GW at peak during the month.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Regarding PEG Day Ahead spot price, throughout April, spot prices (44.4€/MWh) decreased 16% compared to March 2026, with prices ranging between 38.4 €/MWh and 50.6 €/MWh. Gas prices stayed broadly supported despite some loss of bullish momentum early in the month. Ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions and uncertainty around negotiations prevented any meaningful decline toward historical averages. Mid-month scepticism over peace talks reinforced price resilience, while late April saw a stabilization phase. The market remained cautious, with persistent geopolitical risks acting as a floor. Overall, despite easing from recent highs, gas prices remained sensitive to geopolitical developments, with no clear short-term trend established.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
EU gas stocks are 32.5% full on average, an increase of around 5 percentage points compared with the previous month. This improvement in stored gas volumes suggests that the European Union is rebuilding inventories in order to reduce its exposure to potential price tensions ahead of next winter if market conditions do not improve. France’s gas storage levels are at 31.9%, below 2025 (42%).
Market trends and futures
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
During April, French power futures showed an upward trend for the short-term (M+1, M+2 and Q+1), and a downward trend in the long-term (Q+2, Y+1 and Y+2). The impact of gas prices on electricity long-term products in France remained limited compared with the rest of Europe, thanks to a lower reliance on gas in the electricity mix and high availability of nuclear capacity, in contrast to the situation observed during the 2022 energy crisis. The fundamentals remained broadly bearish due to structural overcapacity: high nuclear generation, moderate electricity demand, the expansion of renewables.
Gas forwards decreased considerably compared to previous month, however geopolitical tensions in the Middle East brought high volatility and risks around LNG supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz persist.
Carbon prices remained relatively stable at the start of the month amid regulatory uncertainty around EU market reforms. Mid-April saw slight downward pressure as oil prices surged and geopolitical tensions intensified. Despite this, prices held above key support levels, showing resilience. Overall, EUA prices experienced mild fluctuations and the downward trend seems broken.
Oil prices surged sharply throughout April, driven by severe supply disruptions linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent climbing toward and above $110/b at peaks. Early optimism about ceasefire talks briefly stabilized prices near $100/b mid-month, but lack of concrete progress reignited volatility. Persistent shipping disruptions and collapsing Iranian exports tightened physical supply, sustaining upward pressure. By month-end, escalating military risks and continued blockade fears triggered another spike, marking one of the strongest bullish periods on record. Overall, prices remained elevated and volatile, with geopolitical risk dominating direction.
Key news and implications
The biomethane sector is facing uncertainty due to the lack of clear policy visibility beyond 2028, creating a downside risk for investment. Over €1bn of projects are currently on hold, reflecting stalled momentum rather than price movement. The sector emphasizes its strategic role in energy security and decarbonization, especially amid geopolitical tensions. Without a defined trajectory for certificates (CPB), growth could slow significantly, impacting jobs and supply diversification.
LNG supply – Gas sector
The global LNG market had been moving toward better balance, with trade rising by about 12% between October 2025 and February 2026. This growth was supported by new liquefaction projects, especially in North America, and increased output from existing exporters, which helped ease market pressures and lower gas prices in Europe and Asia.
However, this trend was disrupted by the Middle East conflict starting in late February 2026. The crisis has already caused supply reductions and is expected to result in a cumulative loss of around 120 Gm³ (IEA) of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030.
Key impacts include:
- A slowdown in global LNG production growth (only +8% year-on-year).
- Reduced exports from Qatar and the UAE, partly offset by new projects elsewhere.
- Short-term supply disruptions due to shipping delays and infrastructure damage.
- A projected delay of at least two years in global LNG supply expansion due to damage to liquefaction facilities.
In the near term, supply losses are moderate but expected to worsen slightly. Overall, the conflict is tightening the market again, delaying rebalancing and putting upward pressure on prices, even though future projects may compensate for losses in the longer term. (Source: Enerpresse Philippes Rodrigues)
