Covid19 and developments in the Capacity Market: auction results

The famous capacity auction of June 25th, 2020 has given its verdict and the results are exceptional!

As a reminder, last Thursday, June 11th, RTE stated the risk regarding the security of supply for next winter (2020/2021) to be high. The balances between supply and demand for capacity guarantees show the following situation:

  • for the 2020 delivery year: a clear trend towards an overall deficit of more than 2 GW (deficit in the range of 4.6 GW to 7.9 GW depending on the scenario considered for the level of obligation)
  • for the 2021 delivery year: no clear trend but the possibility of an overall deficit of more than 2 GW (possibility of a surplus of 1.3 GW or a deficit of 2.1 GW depending on the scenario considered for the level of obligation)

With this new perspective, we were expecting the price of capacity for the 2020 delivery year to increase, at least, until the level of suppliers’ obligation is updated. Same for 2021, but to a lesser extent.

In the end, the results have been as follows:

  • 2019 Delivery year: Price =      394.5 €/MW, Volume = 1 970.8 MW
  • 2020 Delivery year: Price = 45 000.8 €/MW, Volume =    498.2 MW
  • 2021 Delivery year: Price = 47 401.0 €/MW, Volume = 3 859.6 MW
  • 2022 Delivery year: Price = 38 966.4 €/MW, Volume = 4 333.5 MW

For the 2020 delivery year, looking at the aggregated auction curves, we can see that the high clearing price was the result of a lack of supply, especially of nuclear certificates. Ultimately, this lack of supply could have been slightly mitigated if the ARENH capacities, which would have to be recovered in case of a definitive suspension of certain contracts, had been included. However, there is still some uncertainty as to the final recipient/-s of these certificates.

Figure 1. AL 2020 auction aggregated curves

However, for the 2021 and 2022 delivery years, the long capacity plateau has set the price. The length of this plateau and the level of demand set at the cap price made it very difficult for another lower strike price to emerge.

Figure 2. AL 2021 auction aggregated curves //  Figure 3.  AL 2022 auction aggregated curves

While year 2022 did not seem, until now, to be the subject of particular attention from the point of view of security of supply, the result of these auctions for the 2022 delivery year may be surprising and may reflect a certain fragility of the system beyond 2021.

These results still fit in well with the follow-up of RTE´s announcements, the consequences of which will undoubtedly continue to be felt both on the future transaction of the capacity market and on the energy-only market.

As a reminder, after the decision of the Paris Commercial Court to rule in favour of the temporary suspension of the ARENH supply, EdF had announced the suspension of the contracts in question for the rest of 2020. As a result, and in view of the result of the 2020 delivery year auction, if such ARENH contracts became definitively suspended, players lacking capacity guarantees due to this suspension would probably have to buy them at high prices.

This conflict against alternative suppliers, which until now has been limited to the legal context, is now extending to the electricity markets with new developments still to be expected.

Ibrahima Baldé

Suscribe to our Newsletter

Each month, one of our experts publishes an article describing his view on a specific topic of the constant changes taking place in the energy market, with special focus on the French market.

Profesional Experience & Education

Diego graduated in Political Economy at King’s College University (London – 2021). He started his professional career in a family business in Madrid as an operations manager. Diego then studied a Master in Management and Master in Computer Science at IE University (Madrid – 2022), during which he participated as an Information Technology (IT) intern in a startup. In May 2023, Diego joined the HES team as an intern specialised in programming models. In his first project, he developed a software tool for modelling the unavailability of the French nuclear fleet. Afterwards, Diego has also participated in the development of new software tools for modelling price curves, generation asset performance and other topics related to the energy market. 

Diego Marroquin

Junior Consultant

Haya Energy-6

Profesional Experience

Céline joined Haya Energy Solutions in November 2021 as marketing and administration manager. She had a first professional experience in the tourism sector as a social media manager. At HES, her activities are focused on the development of the company’s visibility at European level through: commercial actions, content marketing and development of brand strategy. Céline is also involved in the management of the company’s communication: optimisation of the website (WordPress & Elementor), LinkedIn, publication of the monthly newsletter and the organisation of conferences. Céline participates in energy projects with the clients and acts as coordinator and project manager. Finally, she is in charge of administration (accounting, expenses management, invoicing).   


Céline graduated in Spanish and English Philology at La Sorbonne (France – 2018) and holds a Master’s degree in Project Management and Cultural Tourism (Clermont-Ferrand/ Buenos Aires – 2021). 

Céline Haya Sauvage

Marketing Responsible

Céline Sauvage

Investment Advice

“Decarbonization of the Energy and Transport sectors is arguably today’s main economic driver for the industry.”

Profesional Experience

His career started in civil engineering as a Project Manager in France, Martinique and Australia. Afterwards, he became the General Manager of a subsidiary in Venezuela. In 1992, he established Dalkia in Germany (district heating, cogeneration, and partnerships) and represented Véolia in Thailand. In 2000, he opened the commercial office of Endesa in France to take advantage of the liberalized retail market. From 2006, as a development Manager at Endesa France, he led Endesa’s plan for Combined Cycle generation in France and developed the wind and PV portfolio of Snet at the same time. Philippe Boulanger worked for 3 years at E.ON’s headquarters coordinating the company´s activities in France. He was strongly involved in the French hydro concession renewal project. As a Senior Vice President – Project Director at Solvay Energy Services from April 2012 to February 2014 he was in charge of the H2/Power to gas and European direct market access deployment projects. Philippe has been an HES expert since 2014.


Philippe Boulanger holds engineering degrees both from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (France) and has a combined experience of more than 25 years in energy and infrastructure. In addition to English, Mr. Boulanger is fluent in French, German & Spanish.

Philippe Boulanger

Electricity Expert


“The world is changing. New investors pay particular attention to the energy sector while historical actors adapt their position to the market.”

Profesional Experience

Antonio started his career in the electricity sector in 1991 working as a member of the General Manager’s team at Sevillana de Electricidad (Spain). In 1997, he was appointed head of commercial regulation at Endesa Distribución. In 2000, he joined the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) department of Endesa Europe. He was appointed Managing Director of Endesa Power Trading Ltd (UK) in 2003. A year later, he became responsible for energy management at SNET (France). In 2008, he was appointed Managing Director of SNET (France). In 2009, he became Director of Corporate Development at E.ON France. In 2011, he founded Haya Energy Solutions (HES), a consulting firm focused on optimising the energy management of consumers, producers and retailers of gas and electricity. From 2015 to 2018, Antonio combined the consulting activity at HES with the general management of 2 production facilities in France (2 CCGTs x 410MW), owned by KKR. At the end of 2018, he joined Asterion Industrial Partners, an infrastructure investment fund, as an operating partner. Antonio currently devotes most of his efforts to the Asterion Portfolio, while advising through HES companies in the energy sector in France, Italy, Germany, UK and Spain. 


Antonio graduated from the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros of Seville (Spain) and holds an MBA degree from Deusto University (Spain). 

Antonio Haya