Covid19 and developments in the Capacity Market: auction results

The famous capacity auction of June 25th, 2020 has given its verdict and the results are exceptional!

As a reminder, last Thursday, June 11th, RTE stated the risk regarding the security of supply for next winter (2020/2021) to be high. The balances between supply and demand for capacity guarantees show the following situation:

  • for the 2020 delivery year: a clear trend towards an overall deficit of more than 2 GW (deficit in the range of 4.6 GW to 7.9 GW depending on the scenario considered for the level of obligation)
  • for the 2021 delivery year: no clear trend but the possibility of an overall deficit of more than 2 GW (possibility of a surplus of 1.3 GW or a deficit of 2.1 GW depending on the scenario considered for the level of obligation)

With this new perspective, we were expecting the price of capacity for the 2020 delivery year to increase, at least, until the level of suppliers’ obligation is updated. Same for 2021, but to a lesser extent.

In the end, the results have been as follows:

  • 2019 Delivery year: Price =      394.5 €/MW, Volume = 1 970.8 MW
  • 2020 Delivery year: Price = 45 000.8 €/MW, Volume =    498.2 MW
  • 2021 Delivery year: Price = 47 401.0 €/MW, Volume = 3 859.6 MW
  • 2022 Delivery year: Price = 38 966.4 €/MW, Volume = 4 333.5 MW

For the 2020 delivery year, looking at the aggregated auction curves, we can see that the high clearing price was the result of a lack of supply, especially of nuclear certificates. Ultimately, this lack of supply could have been slightly mitigated if the ARENH capacities, which would have to be recovered in case of a definitive suspension of certain contracts, had been included. However, there is still some uncertainty as to the final recipient/-s of these certificates.

Figure 1. AL 2020 auction aggregated curves

However, for the 2021 and 2022 delivery years, the long capacity plateau has set the price. The length of this plateau and the level of demand set at the cap price made it very difficult for another lower strike price to emerge.

Figure 2. AL 2021 auction aggregated curves //  Figure 3.  AL 2022 auction aggregated curves

While year 2022 did not seem, until now, to be the subject of particular attention from the point of view of security of supply, the result of these auctions for the 2022 delivery year may be surprising and may reflect a certain fragility of the system beyond 2021.

These results still fit in well with the follow-up of RTE´s announcements, the consequences of which will undoubtedly continue to be felt both on the future transaction of the capacity market and on the energy-only market.

As a reminder, after the decision of the Paris Commercial Court to rule in favour of the temporary suspension of the ARENH supply, EdF had announced the suspension of the contracts in question for the rest of 2020. As a result, and in view of the result of the 2020 delivery year auction, if such ARENH contracts became definitively suspended, players lacking capacity guarantees due to this suspension would probably have to buy them at high prices.

This conflict against alternative suppliers, which until now has been limited to the legal context, is now extending to the electricity markets with new developments still to be expected.

Ibrahima Baldé

Suscribe to our Newsletter

Each month, one of our experts publishes an article describing his view on a specific topic of the constant changes taking place in the energy market, with special focus on the French market.

Profesional Experience

Céline, a young and dynamic person, had a first experience in the tourism sector as a community manager at Loups du Gévaudan, in Lozère. She joined HES team in November 2021 to diversify her knowledge: learning about the energy sector, specialising in marketing strategies in order to improve the company’s customer relations and, at the same time, developing her skills in coordination and project management.

Education

Céline graduated in Spanish and English Language, Literature and Civilisation at La Sorbonne IV (2018). She also holds a master’s degree II in cultural projects and establishments management, with a special focus on international tourism. She also studied abroad at the University of London (England) and Universidad de Morón (Argentina).

Céline Haya Sauvage

Marketing Responsible

DSC_0323

“Decarbonization of the Energy and Transport sectors is arguably today’s main economic driver for the industry.”

Profesional Experience

His career started in civil engineering as a Project Manager in France, Martinique and Australia. Afterwards, he became the General Manager of a subsidiary in Venezuela. In 1992, he established Dalkia in Germany (district heating, cogeneration, and partnerships) and represented Véolia in Thailand. In 2000, he opened the commercial office of Endesa in France to take advantage of the liberalized retail market. From 2006, as a development Manager at Endesa France, he led Endesa’s plan for Combined Cycle generation in France and developed the wind and PV portfolio of Snet at the same time. Philippe Boulanger worked for 3 years at E.ON’s headquarters coordinating the company´s activities in France. He was strongly involved in the French hydro concession renewal project. As a Senior Vice President – Project Director at Solvay Energy Services from April 2012 to February 2014 he was in charge of the H2/Power to gas and European direct market access deployment projects. Philippe has been an HES expert since 2014.

Education

Philippe Boulanger holds engineering degrees both from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (France) and has a combined experience of more than 25 years in energy and infrastructure. In addition to English, Mr. Boulanger is fluent in French, German & Spanish.

Philippe Boulanger

Electricity Expert

HES-Philippe-Boulanger

“The world is changing. New investors pay particular attention to the energy sector while historical actors adapt their position to the market.”

Profesional Experience

Antonio started his career in the electricity sector in 1991 working as a member of staff for the General Manager of Sevillana de Electricidad (Spain). In 1997, he was in charge of the commercial regulation at Endesa Distribution. In 2000, he joined Endesa’s European M&A department. He was appointed CEO of Endesa Power Trading Ltd in 2003. He became Head of Energy Management for SNET, France, in 2004 and was appointed CEO of this company in 2008. In 2009, he held the position of Head of Corporate Development for E.ON France. In 2011, he founded Haya Energy Solutions (HES), a consulting firm which assists companies in optimizing their value chain: from strategy definition to day-to-day operations, based on a strong experience and understanding of the energy industry. From 2015 to 2018, Antonio was Chairman and CEO of 2 French CCGTs (2x410MW), owned by KKR. At the end of 2018, he joined Asterion Industrial Partners, a dedicated infrastructure investment fund, as an Operating Partner.

Education

Antonio graduated from the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros of Seville (Spain) and holds an MBA degree from Deusto University (Spain).

Antonio Haya

CEO