Key Insights from the French Market Analysis
Analysis of the French energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in France and in other relevant markets such as Spain.
Table of Contents
May 2026
Key figures of the month
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
In May 2026, electricity spot prices across the main European markets increased compared with the previous month, with average monthly prices rising by more than 10 €/MWh in most countries. Italy was the main exception, remaining the highest-priced market in the region at broadly the same level as in April. In the forward market, however, Power Cal’27 remained relatively stable across all countries, although price levels moved within a slightly higher range than those observed in the previous month.
France and Spain were once again the lowest-priced power markets in the region, both averaging around 52 €/MWh, despite the increase recorded in their monthly average prices compared with April. By contrast, the rest of the main European markets remained at significantly higher levels, with Germany averaging close to 93 €/MWh, the UK reaching around 105 €/MWh, and Italy remaining near 120 €/MWh. Overall, May once again highlighted the wide divergence in spot prices across Europe, largely reflecting each market’s renewable generation profile and, in particular, its degree of exposure to gas-fired technologies as the marginal price-setting source.
From a pricing perspective, one of the most notable developments of the month was the record low daily average price registered in the French market on 1 May, which fell to -. This was mainly driven by lower electricity demand associated with the public holiday, combined with favourable conditions for solar PV generation.
More broadly, May was also a record month for solar PV output across several major European markets. New all-time daily highs for the month of May were reached in Germany (503 GWh), Spain (265 GWh), France (179 GWh) and Italy (161 GWh). This strong solar performance reinforced downward pressure on prices during central daylight hours, particularly on days when high renewable generation coincided with softer demand.
On the gas side, average spot prices remained broadly stable around the 46 €/MWh mark across most markets, with Germany standing slightly higher at around 48 €/MWh on average. Compared with April, gas prices posted a modest increase across all countries, rising by around 2 €/MWh in most markets. Gas Cal’27 also showed a slight month-on-month increase across all countries.
As has been the case since the outbreak of the conflict, gas price formation remained largely driven by developments involving Iran, Israel and the United States, and, in particular, by events affecting the transit of gas and oil through the Strait of Hormuz. At present, the conflict appears to be in an open phase of negotiations aimed at de-escalation, while the ceasefire remains in place but highly fragile, with sporadic attacks still being reported. In this context, any signal ranging from progress in the talks to renewed disruption risk continued to feed directly into gas prices.
As for CO₂, prices increased from around 77 €/t in April to 79 €/t in May, extending the upward trend that had started in the previous month. The move appears to reflect sentiment and geopolitical risk more than a significant change in near-term fundamentals.
Overall, higher gas and CO₂ prices contributed to renewed upward pressure on electricity markets in May, partly offsetting the downward effect of strong solar generation across Europe.
Energy demand and generation mix
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
In May 2026, total generation in France reached 39,172 GWh.
Nuclear power remains the backbone of the French generation mix, playing a key role in ensuring system security of supply. Nuclear generation represented 70.0% of May’s energy mix, aligned with previous month nuclear generation. CCGTs participation has decreased even more (0.8% in May vs 1.3% in April) with other main technologies being hydro, solar PV and wind generation.
In the matter of renewable energy sources, as you can see from the graph, hydro production comes second in the total energy mix, representing a 10.1% out of the total production and first in the renewable energy category. Hydroelectric stocks have increased in the last month from 1,177 GWh at the end of April until 1,640 GWh by end May (figures until week 21 in RTE), with very low levels in comparison with the last 5 years stock level in the same period. Finally, photovoltaic production has increased compared to the previous months.
Note: Hydraulic stock represents the aggregated energy content of French lake-type hydro reservoirs, expressed as head energy (energy producible by the plant directly connected to the reservoir). Maximum stock: 3,591 GWh. Data published weekly by RTE.
Energy prices & market panorama
Power prices showed a sharp rebound in May after the very low levels observed at the beginning of the month. The month opened with an extreme negative price event, with the French day-ahead price reaching -498.7 €/MWh on 1 May at 13:00, a new low record. This reflected strong downward pressure from renewable generation, particularly solar, which accounted for 27% of generation during that hour, combined with significantly reduced demand due to bank holiday in France. Prices recovered during the first week of the month, with several hourly prices exceeding 120 €/MWh, supported by higher demand, increased gas-fired generation and higher gas prices. However, by mid-month, prices eased again as strong renewable and nuclear output, together with lower demand during additional May bank holidays in France, put renewed downward pressure on the market. The second half of the month was generally characterised by higher prices than in April, mainly driven by higher gas prices and increased gas-fired generation. Overall, May was marked by high volatility, combining extreme negative price episodes during periods of high renewable output and low demand with sharp price spikes during peak hours.
May’s average spot electricity price in France reached 52.2 €/MWh, a 31% increase compared with April’s average of 39.8 €/MWh. As shown in the graph, prices fluctuated significantly throughout the month, with a minimum hourly price of -498.7 €/MWh on 1 May and a maximum of 206 €/MWh on 7 May. Day-ahead prices frequently dropped to very low or near-zero levels around midday, with 27.8% of hours below 5 €/MWh, reflecting the increasing impact of solar generation. In contrast, peak hours experienced sharp price spikes, with 9% of hourly prices above , likely reflecting periods when gas-fired generation was setting the marginal price.
In terms of cross-border flows, France remained a net exporter across most interconnections. Hourly export levels exceeded 18 GW at peak during the month.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Regarding the PEG Day Ahead spot price, throughout May, spot prices averaged 46.4 €/MWh, increasing by 5% compared to April 2026, with prices ranging between 43.1 €/MWh and 51.8 €/MWh. As shown in the chart, May prices remained almost consistently above the April average and became particularly firm in the middle of the month, before easing slightly towards month-end.
Gas prices remained supported throughout May, although without a clear breakout trend. At the beginning of the month, the market showed some signs of losing bullish momentum, as hopes of a possible U.S.–Iran peace agreement triggered some profit-taking.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
However, prices did not enter a real downtrend, as European gas fundamentals remained tight. Mid-month, the lack of concrete progress in negotiations, together with continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, reinforced bullish sentiment and pushed prices higher. By the end of May, the market had moved into a more cautious “status quo” phase, with prices stabilizing around their short-term average rather than continuing to rise.
The main supportive factor for French gas prices remained the European storage deficit and the increasing competition between Europe and Asia for LNG cargoes. European LNG imports weakened during the month while Asian demand continued to strengthen, forcing European buyers to remain competitive in order to secure supply. This supported both TTF and PEG prices, keeping French gas prices exposed to international LNG dynamics and geopolitical developments.
EU gas stocks finished May at 40.1% full on average, an increase of around 23.4% compared with the previous month but still below the 47.9% recorded at the same point in 2025. This gradual refill reduced some immediate pressure, but the storage deficit remains a key bullish risk ahead of next winter. For France, this means that PEG prices are likely to remain sensitive to LNG availability, Norwegian supply, Asian demand and any renewed geopolitical escalation.
Market trends and futures
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
During May, French power futures showed an upward trend compared with April average prices, with the forward curve also rising throughout the month. Short-term products, including Jun-26, Jul-26 and Q3-2026, increased over the month. This upward move reflected growing concerns around the summer balance, including higher cooling demand, weaker hydro conditions, potential river-related nuclear constraints and higher gas prices. Q4-2026 also increased by 4.5% to 89.0 €/MWh, while longer-dated contracts remained broadly stable, with Cal-2027 up 1.0% to 54.8 €/MWh and Cal-2028 up 0.2% to 51.4 €/MWh.
Gas forwards in May increased compared with April forwards, while also showing mixed movements throughout the month. Short-term contracts rose by around 6% on average, whereas longer-dated products were more stable, with only moderate gains compared with the previous month.
The upward move was mainly driven by tight European gas fundamentals, storage levels still below last year, continued competition between Europe and Asia for LNG cargoes, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty around the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. Although hopes of a U.S.–Iran agreement triggered some profit-taking at different points during the month, the market did not establish a real downtrend. Overall, the May increase was concentrated at the front of the curve, while longer-dated products remained comparatively stable.
Carbon prices moved moderately higher in May, with EUA Dec-2026 increasing by 2.8% (76.2 €/t). The market was supported by higher energy prices and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, particularly around the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. However, the upside remained limited by regulatory uncertainty after the European Commission revised the 2026 EU ETS auction calendar, introducing the auctioning of 50 million allowances for the Social Climate Fund, including around 40 million additional allowances. This additional auction supply could create bearish pressure later in the year. At the same time, the latest TNAC figures implied that around 190 Mt of allowances would be transferred into the Market Stability Reserve between September 2026 and August 2027, reducing the effective supply available to the market and partially offsetting the bearish impact of the additional auctions. Overall, carbon prices ended May higher, but market participants remained cautious and the move did not develop into a clear bullish breakout.
Key news and implications
Day Ahead minimum clearing price
As of 28 May 2026, the harmonised minimum clearing price for the Single Day-Ahead Coupling (SDAC) was lowered from -500 €/MWh to -600 €/MWh. This adjustment was triggered automatically under the HMMCP methodology after day-ahead clearing prices fell below 70% of the existing minimum price in several European bidding zones on at least two different days within a 30-day period, first on 25 April and again on 30 April. The change applies to all bidding zones participating in SDAC and increases the technical downside range for day-ahead prices. In France, this is particularly relevant given the recent episodes of very low or negative prices driven by high renewable output, comfortable nuclear availability and weak demand.
