Evolution of demand and production mix: 

In April 2024, electricity consumption in France during peaks in demand averaged 53.0 GW, down 4.9 GW from March levels (and more than 8GW from February’s 61.3 GW). This is in line with last year’s 53,2 GW during April. The monthly peak in electricity demand was reached on Tuesday, April 23rd, at 60.4 GW, 7.1 GW less than March’s peak and well below the levels seen in winter (e.g., 83.5 GW in January). Alongside this decrease in demand, average electricity prices for day-ahead base contracts in France saw a decrease of around €15/MWh, from €53.5/MWh in March to €35.59/MWh in April. 

An overview of electricity generation shows, according to RTE data, that nuclear generation averaged during max 40.6 GW, 1,3 GW less than in March and well below the 45GW of February. 

Wind power generation during maxima increased slightly from 8.6GW to 9GW and solar power generation increased too, however, hydro power generation fell by 2,1GW. 

For gas, the share in the electricity generation mix fell by more than 60%, from 4.3GW in March to 1.4GW during maxima in April. 

Finally, France was a net exporter of electricity virtually the whole month, reaching the net 10GW of exports consistently every week. 

In terms of renewable energy generation, there was a decrease of 0.8 GW in the average during the maxima in April compared to March, reaching 30.8 GW. This decrease was due mainly to the decrease in hydro energy, from 14.2GW to 12.1GW, although these values are still well above the 9.4GW of hydro power generation seen last April. Hydroelectric stocks are lower than last year’s, 1,365 GWh compared to the 1,592 GWh of 2023 but significantly higher than 2021’s 941 GWh. 

Futures and one-month ahead contracts: 

In terms of gas prices, the TTF spot contract closed at €28.63/MWh in April, just below 1€/GWh higher than the March close (€27.70/MWh), yet much lower than the values seen seen at the end of November, for example (€41.23/MWh). This is partly due to the relatively low energy demand this winter and to the very high gas reserves. Although the instability in the Red Sea, highlighted in our monthly analyses over the past few months (well before the media coverage of the Houthi attacks), has had an upward impact on energy prices, the continent’s gas supplies have shifted over the past two years towards increased reliance on safer routes, namely with Norway and the U.S.A.  

June 24 Oil contracts fluctuated at around 88$/bbl during the month of April, closing at 88,4 $/bbl. These prices are well above the World Bank’s forecast of $81/bbl for 2024. Although the tensions in the middle east certainly had an impact, it must be noted that OPEC members had taken concrete steps to keep prices above 80$/bbl following the past year’s relatively low prices.  

As for electricity futures, in April we saw the June 2024 contract trend upwards, from €36.58/MWh on April 2nd to €40.60/MWh on April 30th, while July contracts rose from 47.22€/MWh to 52.70€/MWh. A major driver behind the rise of French futures is the rise in electricity prices for the German contracts, which rose by 10€/MWh over the same time period. 

Medium and long-term contracts: 

The TTF Cal25 contract, which had already risen from €29.38/MWh to €31.37€/MWh in March, rose further to 33,90€/MWh in April (over the €33.18/MWh seen in January).  

Coal prices have been on a downward curve, inverting the rising tendency of past months, with API Cal25 prices decreasing more than 7%, from $117.68$/t on April 1st to $110.18/t on April 30th. It is worth noting that coal demand has decreased substantially in the U.S.A. during the past year, accounting for a major part of the 3% decline in national CO2 emissions. However, increased coal powerplant construction, namely in India, has had a bullish effect. 

On the other hand, EUA Dec’24 prices, which had fallen during January and February, rose during March and April, from €56.37/t on 1st March to €58.72€/t on April 1st and up to 69.52€/t on April 30th, an over 18% rise in total. 

The French electricity contract Cal25 continued the general upward, however, it increased proportionally less than CO2 and TTF gas, passing from €77.2/MWh on the 28th of March to 79,56€/MWh on the 30th of April. This relatively weak correlation of French electricity prices with gas and CO2, derived from its large nuclear park, has been somewhat a buffer to the rise in electricity future prices seen in Germany and Italy.