Key Insights from the French Market Analysis
Analysis of the French energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in France and in other relevant markets such as Spain.
Table of Contents
November 2025
Key figures of the month
Over the last month, electricity spot prices in European markets have differed from those in previous month. Germany and the UK saw a marked month-on-month decline, while Spain and France recorded higher average prices. Italy was broadly unchanged. In contrast, looking at Power Cal’26, we can see that all countries have experienced a downward trend compared with the previous month, pointing to a softer medium-term pricing outlook.
In terms of price levels, France recorded the lowest monthly average on the continent at 64.97 €/MWh, overtaking Spain. The UK (75.27 €/MWh) and Spain (77.90 €/MWh) followed at broadly similar levels, while Italy remained the highest-priced market at 115.48 €/MWh.
Market fundamentals, particularly renewable generation patterns and weather, were the primary drivers of price movements through December
During the first week of the month, most major European power markets experienced lower prices, bolstered by increased wind and PV output, as well as gas prices reaching their lowest level since April 2024.
Prices fell again across most markets in the second week as milder temperatures reduced demand and gas prices softened further. The main exception was the Iberian market, where prices increased.
During the third week, prices increased slightly in most markets due to colder weather, higher gas and CO₂ prices, and a change in the renewable energy mix (more wind and less solar). CO₂ prices reached their highest level since October 2024.
In the fourth week, prices fell again due to lower holiday demand and increased wind and PV generation. PV hit record daily generation highs for December in Germany, Italy and France.
Energy demand and generation mix
In December 2025, electricity consumption in France during peaks in demand averaged 66 GW, 2% lower than December 2024. Additionally, the peak in electricity demand during this month was reached the last day of the year, with 75 GW, in line with the levels seen the previous month (75.1 GW). This peak corresponds to the arrival of the polar air mass that affected the country during the last days of the year with negative temperatures.
In terms of the generation mix, average nuclear generation in December was 54 GWh. The average maximum output was reached at the end of the month (56 GWh), and the average minimum output was reached on Sunday 7th of December (51.1 GWh). Strong nuclear production is contributing to comfortable supply conditions. The last week of the month, 7 out of 57 reactors in the French nuclear fleet were on scheduled shutdown. In December, EDF announced that the Flamanville EPR reactor reached full power on Sunday, 14 December. The company explained that achieving 100% power for the first time allows teams to test equipment under full-load conditions, collect operational data, and verify that all systems are functioning properly. The reactor remained at full power until 4:00 p.m. on Sunday, after which output was gradually reduced to a stable level of 1,220 MW. The so-called industrial commissioning phase is expected to take place a few weeks after the completion of the full-power tests. This milestone marks the end of the initial testing programme carried out during the reactor’s first start-up.
In the matter of renewable energy sources, as you can see from the graph, hydro production comes second in the total energy mix, representing a 14.5% out of the total production and first in the renewable energy category. Hydroelectric stocks decreased from 2,285 GWh (at the end of November) to 2,010 GWh (at the end of December), below last year’s level (2,379 GWh). Wind energy comes third in the total energy mix, representing 12.7% (in line with last month levels – 12 GWh). Finally, photovoltaic production has decreased significantly (7.1 GWh); we are in the least sunny period of the year (November to February). We can expect these levels of solar production over the coming months.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Energy prices & market panorama
Firstly, average electricity prices for day-ahead base contracts in France reached €64.97/MWh – lowest of the continent-, 38% lower to December-24’s levels (€110.48/MWh). As the graph shows, prices fluctuated considerably throughout the month with the minimum price for the day-ahead base contract being €20.18/MWh on 8th December, and the maximum price €89.92/MWh on 2nd December. Power prices fell sharply in early December due to mild weather, strong wind output, and high nuclear availability, which reduced demand and increased supply. At the end of the month, a cold snap hit the country with temperatures below the usual for this time of year, which affected electricity prices (above €80/MWh).
Regarding imports and exports, in December, France was in a position of net exporter with all its borders, except Spain. The maximum level of exports for the month was 20,671 MW. RTE has announced that 2025 was a record year for France’s electricity exports. They reached 92.3 TWh confirming structural oversupply and limiting upside (Italy + 22,6 TWh, Germany and Belgium + 23,1 TWh, UK + 22,6 TWh, Switzerland + 20,1 TWh and Spain + 0,2 TWh).
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Secondly, gas prices, the TTF spot contract closed at €28.30/MWh on 31st December. During the month, spot TTF prices varied slightly between €26.6 and €29.0/MWh. Since February-25, TTF spot contract prices are in a downward tendency (except from May to June). Its lowest price since the beginning of the year has been reach at mid-December. Gas stocks are not very full compared to previous years, so the explanation seems to be more related to geopolitics and the possibility of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia under the auspices of the United States. This would mean that the markets believe that Russian gas will return to Europe, even though Europe has committed to purchasing a certain amount of energy from the United States and has signed an agreement to phase out Russian gas imports.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
EU gas stocks are 61.97% full on average, compared to 86.27% last year. France’s gas storage levels are at 60.04%, below 2024 (83.62%). It is worth noting that since July 2025, the European Parliament has relaxed the 90% minimum storage requirement, allowing Member States to reach this target at any point between 1st October and 1st December each year. Once the threshold is achieved, it is no longer mandatory to maintain it until year-end, providing countries with greater operational flexibility.
Market trends and futures
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
In December, French power prices decreased considerably across all maturities (as it is the case since October-2025), with the most significant drops occurring in long term contracts like Y+2 which fells by around 7%. The French calendar curve is in clear contango, with Cal-26 trading around €49.34/MWh and Cal-27 at €51.08/MWh, whereas other Western European markets remain in backwardation. French calendar prices have reached its lowest level since last years.
Similarly, gas prices fell even more, by approximately 10% across the curve. Rising market confidence in a Russia–Ukraine peace agreement under US pressure reduced geopolitical risk premia across energy markets, particularly for oil and gas, reinforcing downward price pressure despite continued uncertainty.
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) prices experienced an increase of 3% for both 2025 and 2026 maturities compared to the previous month. Carbon prices surged in mid-December, nearing yearly highs, driven by policy-led supply tightening rather than demand. The start of the free auction period, the end of year auctions, and the confirmed cancellation of 52 Mt of allowances created a sustained bullish tone into year-end.
Oil prices recovered slightly in early December, supported by tensions around Venezuela, with Brent above $63/b. This support faded as markets shifted focus to the expected global supply surplus, pushing prices lower. Mid-December optimism around a Russia–Ukraine peace deal drove Brent to $58–59/b, its lowest level in five months. Although geopolitical headlines (Venezuela, Ukraine) continued to trigger brief rebounds, these had diminishing impact. By early January, even a major US intervention in Venezuela failed to move prices, confirming that oversupply expectations cap price upside.
Regulation
The European Commission approved the reform of the French capacity mechanism, effective from December 2026 for ten years. While this decision improves long-term security of supply and investment visibility, it has limited immediate price impact. Over the medium term, it may help cap extreme winter price spikes by ensuring sufficient capacity, contributing to lower volatility rather than higher prices.
Bilan prévisionnel 2025-2035
RTE’s Bilan prévisionnel 2025-2035 updates projections for the French power system through to 2035. It confirms the relevance of France’s long-term strategy to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, improve the trade balance, and support reindustrialisation. The climate, economic, and energy sovereignty benefits of this strategy, as well as the conditions required for its success, are reaffirmed.
In the short term, electricity demand remains stable, while low-carbon power generation is now increasing at a pace consistent with climate targets. As a result, France is currently experiencing an abundance of decarbonised electricity. This situation is highly favourable for the development of new electricity uses but should remain temporary. The most effective way to absorb this excess capacity is to accelerate the electrification of the economy, following a rapid decarbonisation pathway. Under a slower decarbonisation scenario, adjusting the pace of low-carbon generation development can also help, but this approach is less economically efficient and must be managed carefully to preserve existing energy sectors.
