Key Insights from the French Market Analysis

Analysis of the French energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in France and in other relevant markets such as Spain.

Table of Contents

September 2025

Key figures of the month

Trend Prices EU Haya Energy Solutions

Energy demand and generation mix

In September 2025, electricity consumption in France during peaks in demand averaged 48.6 GW. Additionally, the peak in electricity demand in September was reached on Friday 26 September, with 54.2 GW, well above the levels seen the previous month (51.9 GW). French demand is on track to hit its lowest level in five years.

In terms of the generation mix, average nuclear generation in September was 44 GWh. The average maximum output was reached end of the month (48.6 GWh), and the average minimum output was reached on Wednesday 15th. The last week of the month, 12 reactors in the French nuclear fleet were on scheduled shutdown. EDF confirmed that the long-delayed Flamanville EPR nuclear reactor will not reach full power before the end of autumn. Its reconnection to the grid has been pushed back again, now scheduled between October 1 and 17. The outage, ongoing since June, was used to address safety valve issues and other maintenance tasks, but the delay means additional nuclear output that could relieve France’s tight supply-demand balance will not materialize before winter.

In the matter of renewable energy sources, as you can see from the graph, PV production comes second in the total energy mix, representing a 16.3% out of the total production and first in the renewable energy category. Hydro energy comes third in the total energy mix, representing 11.9%. Hydroelectric stocks increased from 2,519 GWh (at the end of September) to 2,423 GWh (at the end of August), below last year’s level (3,088 GWh). For the first time in the las 6 months, wind generation has reached in average 8 GWh. 

Energy Mix France September Haya Energy Solutions

Source: Haya Energy Solutions

Energy prices & market panorama

Firstly, average electricity prices for day-ahead base contracts in France reached €35.83/MWh, lower to August’s levels (€53.49/MWh). As the graph shows, prices fluctuated considerably throughout the month with the minimum price for the day-ahead base contract being €9.69/MWh on 12th September, and the maximum price €86.67/MWh on 25th September. Mild temperatures limited demand growth, further amplifying the downward effect on prices. In France, the combination of strong wind, high hydro output, and low exports kept spot prices unusually low, though they have begun to strengthen again as exports recover. Despite high nuclear availability, EDF’s load factors fell to just above 86 percent in September, significantly lower than last year, highlighting difficulties in maintaining production targets when prices are weak.

Regarding imports and exports, in September, France was in a position of net exporter with all its borders. The maximum level of exports for the month was 17,650 MW.

Power Prices France Spot Haya Energy Solutions

Source: Haya Energy Solutions

Secondly, gas prices, the TTF spot contract closed at €32.30/MWh on 30th September. During the month, spot TTF prices varied slightly between €30.83 and €33.40/MWh. In the third quarter of the month, the trend has been balanced with prices fluctuating around €5. On 15th August, TTF spot contract reached its lowest price since the beginning of the year (€30/MWh) due to the bank holiday and the summer break.

Gas Prices France Spot Haya Energy Solutions

Source: Haya Energy Solutions

EU gas stocks are 82.6% full on average, compared to 94.3% last year. France’s gas storage levels are at 91.6%, below 2024 (92.4%). According to discussions held during a European Parliament committee meeting in May, EU member states introduced greater flexibility into the bloc’s mandatory gas storage rules. Gas storage facilities must be filled to 90% capacity between 1st of October and 1st of December (rather than by November 1st), which eases the pressure. However, France has already fulfilled its objective.

Market trends and futures

Market Tendencies France Haya Energy Solutions

Source: Haya Energy Solutions

In September, energy markets began to anticipate lower prices for both power and gas, while carbon allowance prices trended slightly upward. Power prices decreased across all maturities, with the most significant drops occurring in short & medium-term contracts like Q+2 which fells by around 5%. This decline suggests a weakened demand outlook or more comfortable supply conditions as we approach the autumn and winter months. The French calendar curve is in clear contango, with Cal-27 trading around €58.89/MWh, whereas other Western European markets remain in backwardation.

Similarly, gas prices fell, except for Y+2, by approximately 2% across the curve reflecting confidence in storage levels and supply adequacy, as well as a subdued demand forecast. In September, global gas markets were influenced by the first confirmed Arctic LNG 2 delivery from Russia to China. If additional Arctic LNG 2 volumes reach end users, the expected decoupling of European gas prices from oil, originally projected for 2026–2027, could happen much earlier. This development could ease China’s reliance on LNG spot cargoes, reducing pressure on global LNG prices, although it also underscores a deeper Russia–China energy partnership that adds geopolitical uncertainty to supply dynamics.

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) prices experienced a modest increase, rising about 6% for both 2025 and 2026 maturities. This rise indicates ongoing regulatory pressure and tighter expectations regarding allowances.

On the oil side, the IEA revised its forecasts and now expects a global surplus to emerge earlier and larger than anticipated. Supply is set to outpace demand by up to 4 mb/d in the first half of 2026, driven by OPEC+ unwinding cuts and strong production in the Americas, while Chinese demand growth is slowing. This oversupply points to lower oil prices.

Regulation

Regulatory and geopolitical measures also shaped the energy outlook. The European Union announced its 19th sanctions package against Russia, targeting oil traders, refineries, and shipping entities, including companies in China and India. the EU commission is proposing to end its imports of Russian LNG earlier than expected, by end 2026 instead of end 2027.

Meanwhile, the EU finalized reforms to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, exempting small importers but still covering nearly all emissions from targeted sectors. While this had little short-term impact on electricity prices, it points toward structurally higher costs for carbon-intensive imports over the longer term.

FR Baseload Power price (€/MWh)

FR Peak load Power price (€/MWh)

EUA price (€/t)

PEG Gas price (€/MWh)

Coal Price ($/Tn)

Gas efficiency:52%; Coal efficiency: 38% 

Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)

Gas efficiency: 52%; Coal efficiency: 38%

Clean Spark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Spark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

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Each month, one of our experts publishes an article describing his view on a specific topic of the constant changes taking place in the energy market, with special focus on the French market.

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Cada mes, uno o varios de nuestros expertos publican un artículo en el que aportan su punto de vista sobre un tema concreto abordando los constantes cambios que se producen en el mercado de la energía, con un enfoque especial en los mercados español y francés.

Biografía

Diego es Consultor en Haya Energy Solutions. Cuenta con 1 año de experiencia especializada en el desarrollo de modelos para la previsión del precio de la energía, la disponibilidad y producción de energía y la optimización de baterías.

Diego se licenció en Economía y Política por el King’s College de Londres y, posteriormente, obtuvo un doble Máster en Gestión e Informática por la Universidad IE de Madrid.

Diego Marroquín

Consultor

Exertos

Experiencia profesional

Céline es Directora de Desarrollo de Negocio y de Administración de Haya Energy Solutions. Desempeña un papel clave en el crecimiento de la empresa ampliando su presencia en el mercado, reforzando el posicionamiento de la marca a nivel europeo y desarrollando planes estratégicos. También dirige las operaciones administrativas de la empresa, garantizando una gestión financiera eficaz, incluida la contabilidad y la supervisión del presupuesto.

Además, es Consultora en Haya Energy Solutions, especializada en la optimización de la compra de energía través del análisis de las tendencias del mercado y las evoluciones normativas. Asimismo, proporciona orientación estratégica para identificar oportunidades y adaptar soluciones a las necesidades específicas de cada cliente..

Céline es licenciada en Filología por la Universidad de La Sorbona y posee un máster en Gestión de Proyectos y Turismo Cultural por la Universidad de Clermont-Ferrand.

Céline Haya Sauvage

Directora de Desarrollo de Negocio y de Administración & Consultora

Expertos

Asesoramiento en inversiones

«La descarbonización de los sectores de la energía y el transporte es sin duda el motor económico principal de la industria en la actualidad».

Biografía

Su carrera empezó en la ingeniería civil como Director de Proyectos en Francia, Martinica y Australia. Posteriormente, fue Director General de una filial en Venezuela. En 1992, creó Dalkia en Alemania (calefacción urbana, cogeneración y asociaciones) y representó a Véolia en Tailandia. En 2000, abrió las oficinas comerciales de Endesa en Francia para sacar provecho de la liberalización del mercado minorista. A partir de 2006, como responsable de Desarrollo de Endesa Francia, dirigió el plan de generación de Ciclos Combinados y desarrolló al mismo tiempo el porfolio eólico y fotovoltaico de SNET. 

Philippe trabajó durante 3 años para E.ON coordinando las actividades de la empresa en Francia. Estuvo muy involucrado en el proyecto de renovación de la concesión hidroeléctrica francesa. Como Senior Vice President – Director de Proyecto en Solvay Energy Services (abril 2012 – febrero 2014) estuvo a cargo de los proyectos de desarrollo de H2/Power-to-Gas y de acceso directo al mercado europeo. Philippe es experto de HES desde 2014.

Philippe estudió Ingeniería en l’Ecole Polytechnique y en l’Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (Francia). Tiene más de 25 años de experiencia en energía e infraestructuras. Además de inglés, Philippe Boulanger habla francés, alemán y español con fluidez.

Philippe Boulanger

Experto en Electricidad

Expertos

«El mundo está cambiando. Los nuevos inversores prestan especial atención al sector energético mientras los actores históricos adaptan su posición al mercado.»

Biografía

Antonio es el fundador y presidente de Haya Energy Solutions, una consultora especializada centrada en el sector energético, que ha desarrollado proyectos de fusiones y adquisiciones en generación de energía renovable y convencional, cogeneración, calefacción urbana, venta minorista de gas y electricidad, adquisición de energía y optimización energética en Francia, España, Portugal, Alemania y Reino Unido.

Anteriormente, Antonio fue CEO de CELEST Power de KKR en Francia (2x410MW CCGT). También fue CEO de Endesa Francia y Secretario General, Director de Estrategia y Desarrollo Corporativo de E.ON Francia. Asimismo, ocupó diferentes cargos en Endesa, entre ellos Responsable de Fusiones y Adquisiciones en Endesa Europa y Especialista en Regulación en Endesa Distribución.

Antonio posee un MBA por la Universidad de Deusto y es licenciado en Ingeniería Industrial por la Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de la Universidad de Sevilla.

Antonio Haya

Presidente

Expertos