Key Insights from the French Market Analysis
Analysis of the French energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in France and in other relevant markets such as Spain.
Table of Contents
September 2025
Key figures of the month
Energy demand and generation mix
In September 2025, electricity consumption in France during peaks in demand averaged 48.6 GW. Additionally, the peak in electricity demand in September was reached on Friday 26 September, with 54.2 GW, well above the levels seen the previous month (51.9 GW). French demand is on track to hit its lowest level in five years.
In terms of the generation mix, average nuclear generation in September was 44 GWh. The average maximum output was reached end of the month (48.6 GWh), and the average minimum output was reached on Wednesday 15th. The last week of the month, 12 reactors in the French nuclear fleet were on scheduled shutdown. EDF confirmed that the long-delayed Flamanville EPR nuclear reactor will not reach full power before the end of autumn. Its reconnection to the grid has been pushed back again, now scheduled between October 1 and 17. The outage, ongoing since June, was used to address safety valve issues and other maintenance tasks, but the delay means additional nuclear output that could relieve France’s tight supply-demand balance will not materialize before winter.
In the matter of renewable energy sources, as you can see from the graph, PV production comes second in the total energy mix, representing a 16.3% out of the total production and first in the renewable energy category. Hydro energy comes third in the total energy mix, representing 11.9%. Hydroelectric stocks increased from 2,519 GWh (at the end of September) to 2,423 GWh (at the end of August), below last year’s level (3,088 GWh). For the first time in the las 6 months, wind generation has reached in average 8 GWh.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Energy prices & market panorama
Firstly, average electricity prices for day-ahead base contracts in France reached €35.83/MWh, lower to August’s levels (€53.49/MWh). As the graph shows, prices fluctuated considerably throughout the month with the minimum price for the day-ahead base contract being €9.69/MWh on 12th September, and the maximum price €86.67/MWh on 25th September. Mild temperatures limited demand growth, further amplifying the downward effect on prices. In France, the combination of strong wind, high hydro output, and low exports kept spot prices unusually low, though they have begun to strengthen again as exports recover. Despite high nuclear availability, EDF’s load factors fell to just above 86 percent in September, significantly lower than last year, highlighting difficulties in maintaining production targets when prices are weak.
Regarding imports and exports, in September, France was in a position of net exporter with all its borders. The maximum level of exports for the month was 17,650 MW.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Secondly, gas prices, the TTF spot contract closed at €32.30/MWh on 30th September. During the month, spot TTF prices varied slightly between €30.83 and €33.40/MWh. In the third quarter of the month, the trend has been balanced with prices fluctuating around €5. On 15th August, TTF spot contract reached its lowest price since the beginning of the year (€30/MWh) due to the bank holiday and the summer break.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
EU gas stocks are 82.6% full on average, compared to 94.3% last year. France’s gas storage levels are at 91.6%, below 2024 (92.4%). According to discussions held during a European Parliament committee meeting in May, EU member states introduced greater flexibility into the bloc’s mandatory gas storage rules. Gas storage facilities must be filled to 90% capacity between 1st of October and 1st of December (rather than by November 1st), which eases the pressure. However, France has already fulfilled its objective.
Market trends and futures
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
In September, energy markets began to anticipate lower prices for both power and gas, while carbon allowance prices trended slightly upward. Power prices decreased across all maturities, with the most significant drops occurring in short & medium-term contracts like Q+2 which fells by around 5%. This decline suggests a weakened demand outlook or more comfortable supply conditions as we approach the autumn and winter months. The French calendar curve is in clear contango, with Cal-27 trading around €58.89/MWh, whereas other Western European markets remain in backwardation.
Similarly, gas prices fell, except for Y+2, by approximately 2% across the curve reflecting confidence in storage levels and supply adequacy, as well as a subdued demand forecast. In September, global gas markets were influenced by the first confirmed Arctic LNG 2 delivery from Russia to China. If additional Arctic LNG 2 volumes reach end users, the expected decoupling of European gas prices from oil, originally projected for 2026–2027, could happen much earlier. This development could ease China’s reliance on LNG spot cargoes, reducing pressure on global LNG prices, although it also underscores a deeper Russia–China energy partnership that adds geopolitical uncertainty to supply dynamics.
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) prices experienced a modest increase, rising about 6% for both 2025 and 2026 maturities. This rise indicates ongoing regulatory pressure and tighter expectations regarding allowances.
On the oil side, the IEA revised its forecasts and now expects a global surplus to emerge earlier and larger than anticipated. Supply is set to outpace demand by up to 4 mb/d in the first half of 2026, driven by OPEC+ unwinding cuts and strong production in the Americas, while Chinese demand growth is slowing. This oversupply points to lower oil prices.
Regulation
Regulatory and geopolitical measures also shaped the energy outlook. The European Union announced its 19th sanctions package against Russia, targeting oil traders, refineries, and shipping entities, including companies in China and India. the EU commission is proposing to end its imports of Russian LNG earlier than expected, by end 2026 instead of end 2027.
Meanwhile, the EU finalized reforms to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, exempting small importers but still covering nearly all emissions from targeted sectors. While this had little short-term impact on electricity prices, it points toward structurally higher costs for carbon-intensive imports over the longer term.
