Key Insights from the French Market Analysis
Analysis of the French energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in France and in other relevant markets such as Spain.
Table of Contents
October 2025
Key figures of the month
During the last month, electricity prices in Europe have continued on an upward trend compared to those recorded in the previous month. France remains the country with the lowest prices on the continent, averaging 53.09 €/MWh, followed by Spain (75.75 €/MWh) and Germany (79.61 €/MWh). The latter two markets, characterized by an energy mix with a high share of renewables, are particularly influenced by weather conditions.
An increase in electricity demand, combined with a decline in wind and solar generation across most European countries, contributed to a moderate price rebound during the first half of the month. Nevertheless, France, supported by its extensive nuclear generation capacity, was able to mitigate this impact and maintain the most competitive prices in the region. In Germany, however, quarter-hourly peaks exceeding 400 €/MWh were recorded, the highest levels since the beginning of the year.
Meanwhile, the Italian market posted an average price above 110 €/MWh, nearly double the French average. This significant differential is mainly due to Italy’s strong reliance on natural gas in its generation mix, which exposes the country to greater price volatility associated with this commodity.
Regarding the gas market, prices in Europe showed relative stability and calm during the reporting period. However, the onset of winter could alter this trend: a drop in temperatures would likely increase gas demand and put upward pressure on prices.
Finally, the rise in EU carbon allowance (EUA) prices observed in October has had a direct impact on carbon-intensive technologies, further contributing to higher electricity prices across European markets.
Energy demand and generation mix
In October 2025, electricity consumption in France during peaks in demand averaged 52.2 GW, 1% higher than October 2024. Additionally, the peak in electricity demand during this month was reached on Monday 27 October, with 57.9 GW, well above the levels seen the previous month (54.2 GW). We are entering the annual heating season, so consumption is increasing.
In terms of the generation mix, average nuclear generation in October was 43.2 GWh. The average maximum output was reached beginning of the month (48.3 GWh), and the average minimum output was reached on Saturday 04th (32.7 GWh). The last week of the month, 15 out of 57 reactors in the French nuclear fleet were on scheduled shutdown. EDF’s announcement of a 4% upward revision to its nuclear generation target for the coming year briefly eased market sentiment. The production range is now estimated between 365 and 375 TWh (including Flamanville 3).
In the matter of renewable energy sources, as you can see from the graph, PV production comes second in the total energy mix, representing a 14.9% out of the total production and first in the renewable energy category. Hydro energy comes third in the total energy mix, representing 12.7%. Hydroelectric stocks decreased from 2,498 GWh (at the end of October) to 2,519 GWh (at the end of September), below last year’s level (3,059 GWh). For the first time in the last 9 months, wind generation has reached in average 10.1 GWh (we are entering the windy season). Compared to September, photovoltaic production decreased, but more importantly, wind and hydroelectric production increased, so that the share of these three renewable sources in the total energy mix is actually very close.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Energy prices & market panorama
Firstly, average electricity prices for day-ahead base contracts in France reached €53.09/MWh, higher to September’s levels (€35.83/MWh) but lower than October 2024 (€65.90/MWh). As the graph shows, prices fluctuated considerably throughout the month with the minimum price for the day-ahead base contract being €4.62/MWh on 3rd October, and the maximum price €95.45/MWh on 7th October.
Regarding imports and exports, in October, France was in a position of net exporter with all its borders. The maximum level of exports for the month was 17,061 MW.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Secondly, gas prices, the TTF spot contract closed at €31.23/MWh on 31st October. During the month, spot TTF prices varied slightly between €30.33 and €34.20/MWh. On 15th August, TTF spot contract reached its lowest price since the beginning of the year (€30/MWh) due to the bank holiday and the summer break. And the second lowest price of the year was reached on 30th October (€30.33/MWh). Although wind output improved at the beginning of the month, contributing to a partial correction, temperatures fell below normal, driving a rebound in spot gas prices as heating demand increased.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
EU gas stocks are 82.2% full on average, compared to 95.2% last year. France’s gas storage levels are at 92.7%, below 2024 (95.2%). According to discussions held during a European Parliament committee meeting in May, EU member states introduced greater flexibility into the bloc’s mandatory gas storage rules. Gas storage facilities must be filled to 90% capacity between 1st of October and 1st of December (rather than by November 1st), which eases the pressure. However, France has already fulfilled its objective.
Market trends and futures
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
In October, power prices decreased across all maturities, with the most significant drops occurring in medium-term contracts like Q+2 which fells by around 59%. The French calendar curve is in clear contango, with Cal-27 trading around €58.67/MWh, whereas other Western European markets remain in backwardation.
Similarly, gas prices fell, by approximately 3% across the curve reflecting confidence in storage levels and supply adequacy, as well as a subdued demand forecast. The European Parliament’s trade and energy committees voted on October 17 to accelerate the EU’s phase-out of Russian oil, gas, and LNG to January 1, 2027, one year earlier than initially planned. This political move adds long-term bullish risk to European gas prices, as it tightens future supply options, though near-term prices remained relatively stable amid high storage levels. In anticipation of the 2026 import ban on fuels refined from Russian crude, the European Union imported record volumes of diesel and jet fuel in October, notably from India, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Indian refiners, increasingly reliant on Russian crude, exported around 1.9 million barrels per day to the EU between October 1 and 20, underscoring Europe’s strategic shift toward alternative suppliers. While these imports helped maintain market balance and limit immediate price surges, they underline Europe’s growing dependence on long-haul supply chains, which could amplify volatility in future price cycles.
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) prices experienced an increase, rising about 3% for both 2025 and 2026 maturities. Early in the month, EU ETS allowances climbed above €80/ton, reaching their highest level since February 2025, supported by lower wind forecasts and the onset of the heating season.
On the oil side, early in the month, efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to curb Russian oil exports met limited success, as countries such as India, Turkey, Hungary, and Slovakia continued to purchase Russian crude, while China deepened its energy partnership with Moscow. Russia’s Energy Minister announced plans to increase both pipeline gas and LNG exports to China, including from the Arctic LNG 2 and Sakhalin 2 projects.
Regulation
The French Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) has revised its estimate of EDF’s nuclear generation costs ahead of the end of the Arenh scheme in 2026. It now projects full production costs at €60.3/MWh for 2026–2028 and €63.4/MWh for 2029–2031 (in 2026 euros), slightly lower than EDF’s own estimates.
It is worth noting that October 2025 marked the first month of implementation of the quarter-hour pricing system in the French electricity market, transitioning from 24 hourly prices per day to 96 quarter-hourly prices. This new methodology has enabled greater price granularity and a more accurate response to real-time supply and demand fluctuations.
