Spanish Market Analysis
Analysis of the Spanish energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in Spain and in other relevant markets such as France.
Table of Contents
March 2025
Key figures of the month
In March 2025, Europe’s main electricity markets experienced a notable price drop, mainly due to increased solar generation and milder weather conditions, while solar energy set a new generation record for March in the EU.
In February, all countries except Spain exceeded €120/MWh. However, in March, only Italy remained at this level, while markets such as Spain (€53.09/MWh) and France (€76.88/MWh) were characterised by significantly lower prices.
The gas market followed a similar downward trend, continuing the decline at the end of February. Despite the month-on-month decline, gas prices remain above March 2024 levels, keeping pressure on energy costs.
December 2025 EUA CO₂ prices also fell in March, together with a decline in the CIF ARA Y+1 coal price compared to February. This scenario reflects a period of moderation in energy markets, although uncertainties continue to shape their evolution.
Energy demand and generation mix
Electricity demand in Spain in Mar’25 reached 21,546 GWh, while total generation was 23,699 GWh. Both values exceeded those recorded in Feb’25 and Mar’24, reflecting an increase in energy consumption and production dynamics.
Renewable energy sources dominated Spain’s electricity generation in Mar’25, accounting for 61.6% of the total mix. Wind power took the lead with a contribution of 28.3%, a significant increase compared to Feb’25, when it was in third place. This shift pushed nuclear power (20.5%) into second place, followed by hydropower (18.2%), with photovoltaic and combined cycle following in the generation ranking.
The remarkable 60% surge in wind generation in the first months of the year has been driven by a series of storms and weather fronts across the Iberian Peninsula, creating optimal conditions for wind farms. This highlights the growing influence of weather-dependent renewables in Spain’s energy landscape and the volatility they can introduce to the grid.
While nuclear output remained stable, its relative share declined due to the spike in wind production. Hydropower also saw a steady contribution.
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Energy prices & market panorama
The average electricity price in Spain for Mar’25 fell to €53.09/MWh, a 50% drop from Feb’25 (108.21€/MWh). This was the lowest monthly price in over six months, mainly due to a series of storms that hit the country during this period, increasing wind production, and the decrease in Spain’s CPI (0.7%), lower gas and CO2 allowances prices have contributed.
However, compared to a year ago, the trend is quite different. In Mar’24, the average price was just 20.27 €/MWh, meaning current prices are over 160% higher. Although both years saw heavy storms, a key factor this time is the current higher natural gas prices than in this period.
This impact has been most noticeable during periods of low renewable generation. Combined Cycle power plants have played a crucial role in maintaining supply, but their costs remain high due to expensive gas. Additionally, continuous rainfall has occasionally reduced solar photovoltaic (PV) output.
Interestingly, this trend began to reverse in the final week of March, with wholesale prices declining. Negative pricing periods returned (a phenomenon last seen in January, when Spain recorded its first zero-price hours of the year). The main driver behind this downward correction was a surge in renewable generation in the second half of the month. A sharp rise in solar PV production even contributed to Spain’s lowest-ever hourly electricity price (-5.21€/MWh).
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
The average gas price for Mar’25 in MIBGAS stood at 41.17 €/MWh, marking a significant decrease from Feb’25 (50.33 €/MWh) as mentioned before. This drop interrupts a four-month upward trend, highlighting a shift in market dynamics driven by supply uncertainties and geopolitical factors.
Last month, European gas markets were shaped by uncertainty surrounding pipeline flows. At the beginning of the month, speculation about a possible resumption of gas transit through Ukraine fuelled expectations that Europe could redirect some LNG shipments to Asia, potentially pushing prices even lower.
However, as the month progressed, market participants prioritized securing LNG supplies immediately, focusing on stock replenishment even at a slight premium over Asian buyers.
Towards the end of the month, volatility eased, and European gas prices traded within a narrow range as investors awaited the outcome of peace negotiations in Ukraine. The situation became more uncertain after an explosion at the Sudzha metering station, further diminishing the likelihood of a swift resumption of Ukrainian transit. At the same time, some market participants began assigning a probability to the potential reactivation of the Nord Stream pipeline, following comments from Russia’s Foreign Minister.
In this context, MIBGAS prices ended the month slightly below the previous week’s levels, maintaining a wait-and-see stance as the market seeks clearer signals on the future of Russian gas flows.
Market trends and futures
Source: Haya Energy Solutions
The mean prices for the following months, quarters and years have declined significantly compared to the previous month’s values. This drop is particularly pronounced for the mean prices for the next three months and two quarters, where prices have fallen by more than 10% in all cases.
In the natural gas market, futures have also trended downward relative to Feb’25. This decrease has been largely driven by improved geopolitical stability in recent weeks, following heightened uncertainty in previous months. Additionally, the end of winter and milder temperatures have further contributed to easing gas prices.
Global markets remain focused on a potential peace agreement in Ukraine, which could have a substantial impact on gas price dynamics and supply structures. Such an agreement may include provisions for the partial restoration of exports, influencing both pricing and market stability.
Meanwhile, Brent crude prices continue to decline. The outlook suggests that this downward trend will persist, primarily due to two key factors: OPEC+ production strategies and U.S. tariff policies. While global demand is expected to rise by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, non-OPEC supply is projected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day, potentially outpacing demand growth. Furthermore, this production increase is set to occur through gradual monthly increments from April 2025 to September 2026, helping to offset the impact of U.S. tariffs.
Regulation
There were no significant regulatory developments in Spain’s energy sector in March 2025.
SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)
SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)
EUA price (€/t)
MIBGas price (€/MWh)
Coal Price ($/Tn)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%
Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)
Gas efficiency: 52%
Coal efficiency: 38%
