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French Market Analysis

Analysis of the French energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in France and in other relevant markets such as Spain.

Table of Contents

Octobre 2024​

Evolution of demand and production mix

In October 2024, electricity consumption in France during peaks in demand averaged 51.7 GW. The peak electricity demand in October was reached on Thursday, October 31, at 55.5 GW, 3.1 GW higher than September’s peak but well below the levels seen in winter (e.g., 83.5 GW in January).

Renewable energy sources contributed 38.8% of the total energy produced. Specifically, hydro energy accounted for 17% of the total energy produced, while photovoltaics contributed 12.5% and wind energy accounted for 10%. It is worth noting that hydroelectric stocks grew significantly this summer, and the tendency has been maintained over the months. The levels were above 3 100 GWh by the end of October. This is the highest level of storages observed in the past 4 years.

Finally, France was a net exporter of electricity, exceeding the net 8 GW of exports most of October.

Average electricity prices for day-ahead base contracts in France doubled over the past six months from €30.03/MWh in May to 65.90€/MWh in October. Prices fluctuated considerably throughout the month, with the minimum day-ahead base contract price at €30.89/MWh on October 15, and the maximum price at €97.02/MWh on October 30.

Gas

In terms of gas prices, the TTF spot contract closed at €39.04€/MWh on the 30th of September, versus the €39.48/MWh closing in August. This shows that the decline observed between April and May, which stabilised in June, reversed in July and August and has now stabilised again in September.

In terms of gas generation, the average during maxima doubled compared to June (0.8 GW), reaching 1.5 GW which is in line with the summer months (1.7 GW in July and 1.4 GW in August). This was due to increased demand from Germany, which during night-time, lacking solar, needed to import frequently more than 10GW of power. The peak gas generation was 4.1 GW on Monday the 2nd of September and Wednesday the 04th of September, more than double the peak of 2.5GW in June.

At the end of September, France’s gas storage levels were at 92.4%, slightly lower compared to its European neighbours (Italy: 96.6%, Belgium: 94.05% and Germany: 96%).

2024 Gas prospects report (“Perspectives gaz”) published by GRTgaz, September 2024. “The Perspectives gaz” (Gas prospects) scenarios demonstrate the importance of gas and green gases in decarbonizing all activity sectors and rendering the energy system flexible and resilient. This prospecting exercise undertaken by GRDF, GRTgaz and Teréga details the gas consumption and renewable and low-carbon gas production forecasts for 2030 and 2035. It establishes a pathway, one that is compatible with the European “Fit-for-55” climate targets, which is in line with the commitment to using less gas, using it more efficiently and greening it.” In 2030, 320 TWh/year of gas will be consumed, some 20% of which will be renewable and low-carbon gas. These figures do not take into account the growing quantities of hydrogen which will be used, particularly in manufacturing.

Fuels

Brent month-ahead oil contract prices fell from 71.78 $/bbl on September 30th to 71.63 on October 28th. From July 1, when the price was $86.60/bbl, to the end of October, this represents an almost 20% decline. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to play a key role in the up-and-down price trend.

Regarding the impact of tensions in the middle East, if oil trade exposure to a Gulf of Hormuz closure becomes increasingly higher, LNG dependency will diminish, due to the fast growing share of LNG originating from the US.

Future contracts trends

The French electricity contract Cal25 average maximum price in October (73.13€/MWh) is in line with September’s levels (72.84€/MWh). The drop in Cal25 prices, compared to August, may in part be due the improvement of the availability of nuclear power plants.

API Cal 25 Coal prices, which had fallen by end of July (118.67$/t), increased the month after and remained at similar levels – 122.87$/t – by end of October.

The TTF Cal25 contract reached 39.67 €/MWh on October 31st, more than 22% increase since the price in March (it was 29.99€/MWh). TTF Cal 26 followed a stable trend and stayed below Cal25 levels all-throughout October and closed at 34.50 €/MWh on October 31st.

EUA Dec’24 prices, followed a stable trend from 65.56 €/t on September 30th to 64.58 €/t on October 31st.

In France, the Projet de loi de Finances 2025, presented on 10 October 2024, sets out the government’s fiscal and budgetary choices for 2025.
As far as energy is concerned, we note :

CRIM (Contribution sur la Rente Infra marginale)

  • For 2025, the CRIM will not be renewed and no new tax on installed capacity will be introduced.
  • For 2024, revenue of €40 million is forecast, compared with €1,120 million in the previous Finance Act.

Post-Arenh mechanism

  • Introduction of a tax on the use of nuclear fuel to generate electricity, designed to limit the revenue generated by nuclear power plants. This tax captures part of the margin above certain thresholds: 50% above the ‘taxation threshold’ and 90% above the ‘capping threshold’.
  • Creation of a ‘universal nuclear payment’ to redistribute revenue to end consumers, expressed in €/MWh. Implementation will begin on 1 January 2026.

Capacity Mechanism (from November 2026)

  • Introduction of a levy by the network operator (RTE) on electricity suppliers to cover the costs of acquiring capacity. This levy will be distributed among suppliers according to their consumption, thus having the character of a distribution tax.
    Energy and electricity excise duties
  • Adjustment’ of normal excise duty rates at the end of the tariff shield to guarantee consumers a 9% reduction in the regulated rate on 1 February 2025. A decree will determine the amount of the excise duty’.

Reduced rate for district heating

  • Article 10: Confirms the reduced rate of 5.5% for heat supplied to district heating networks, in compliance with European law.
  • Scope: Defines eligible renewable energies, explicitly including ambient energy, in accordance with Directive (EU) 2024/1275 on the energy performance of buildings.

FR Baseload Power price (€/MWh)

FR Peak load Power price (€/MWh)

EUA price (€/t)

PEG Gas price (€/MWh)

Coal Price ($/Tn)

Gas efficiency:52%; Coal efficiency: 38% 

Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)

Gas efficiency: 52%; Coal efficiency: 38%

Clean Spark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Spark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

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Each month, one of our experts publishes an article describing his view on a specific topic of the constant changes taking place in the energy market, with special focus on the French market.

Profesional Experience & Education

Diego graduated in Political Economy at King’s College University (London – 2021). He started his professional career in a family business in Madrid as an operations manager. Diego then studied a Master in Management and Master in Computer Science at IE University (Madrid – 2022), during which he participated as an Information Technology (IT) intern in a startup. In May 2023, Diego joined the HES team as an intern specialised in programming models. In his first project, he developed a software tool for modelling the unavailability of the French nuclear fleet. Afterwards, Diego has also participated in the development of new software tools for modelling price curves, generation asset performance and other topics related to the energy market. 

Diego Marroquin

Junior Consultant

Haya Energy-6
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Profesional Experience

Céline joined Haya Energy Solutions in November 2021 as marketing and administration manager. She had a first professional experience in the tourism sector as a social media manager. At HES, her activities are focused on the development of the company’s visibility at European level through: commercial actions, content marketing and development of brand strategy. Céline is also involved in the management of the company’s communication: optimisation of the website (WordPress & Elementor), LinkedIn, publication of the monthly newsletter and the organisation of conferences. Céline participates in energy projects with the clients and acts as coordinator and project manager. Finally, she is in charge of administration (accounting, expenses management, invoicing).   

Education

Céline graduated in Spanish and English Philology at La Sorbonne (France – 2018) and holds a Master’s degree in Project Management and Cultural Tourism (Clermont-Ferrand/ Buenos Aires – 2021). 

Céline Haya Sauvage

Marketing Responsible

Céline Sauvage
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“Decarbonization of the Energy and Transport sectors is arguably today’s main economic driver for the industry.”

Profesional Experience

His career started in civil engineering as a Project Manager in France, Martinique and Australia. Afterwards, he became the General Manager of a subsidiary in Venezuela. In 1992, he established Dalkia in Germany (district heating, cogeneration, and partnerships) and represented Véolia in Thailand. In 2000, he opened the commercial office of Endesa in France to take advantage of the liberalized retail market. From 2006, as a development Manager at Endesa France, he led Endesa’s plan for Combined Cycle generation in France and developed the wind and PV portfolio of Snet at the same time. Philippe Boulanger worked for 3 years at E.ON’s headquarters coordinating the company´s activities in France. He was strongly involved in the French hydro concession renewal project. As a Senior Vice President – Project Director at Solvay Energy Services from April 2012 to February 2014 he was in charge of the H2/Power to gas and European direct market access deployment projects. Philippe has been an HES expert since 2014.

Education

Philippe Boulanger holds engineering degrees both from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (France) and has a combined experience of more than 25 years in energy and infrastructure. In addition to English, Mr. Boulanger is fluent in French, German & Spanish.

Philippe Boulanger

Electricity Expert

HES-Philippe-Boulanger
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“The world is changing. New investors pay particular attention to the energy sector while historical actors adapt their position to the market.”

Profesional Experience

Antonio started his career in the electricity sector in 1991 working as a member of the General Manager’s team at Sevillana de Electricidad (Spain). In 1997, he was appointed head of commercial regulation at Endesa Distribución. In 2000, he joined the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) department of Endesa Europe. He was appointed Managing Director of Endesa Power Trading Ltd (UK) in 2003. A year later, he became responsible for energy management at SNET (France). In 2008, he was appointed Managing Director of SNET (France). In 2009, he became Director of Corporate Development at E.ON France. In 2011, he founded Haya Energy Solutions (HES), a consulting firm focused on optimising the energy management of consumers, producers and retailers of gas and electricity. From 2015 to 2018, Antonio combined the consulting activity at HES with the general management of 2 production facilities in France (2 CCGTs x 410MW), owned by KKR. At the end of 2018, he joined Asterion Industrial Partners, an infrastructure investment fund, as an operating partner. Antonio currently devotes most of his efforts to the Asterion Portfolio, while advising through HES companies in the energy sector in France, Italy, Germany, UK and Spain. 

Education

Antonio graduated from the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros of Seville (Spain) and holds an MBA degree from Deusto University (Spain). 

Antonio Haya

CEO

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