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  • Spanish Market Analysis

Spanish Market Analysis

Analysis of the Spanish energy market is key to understanding the dynamics and trends affecting the sector both locally and internationally. In this detailed analysis, we address the important factors influencing energy prices, supply and demand, and the latest regulatory policies. This comprehensive overview will allow you to keep up to date with weekly changes and anticipate possible market variations, both in Spain and in other relevant markets such as France.

Table of Contents

November 2024

Evolution of demand and production mix

In November, renewable energy sources accounted for 50.78% of the total energy production. Specifically, wind energy contributed 23.4%, hydropower 13.4%, photovoltaics 11.5%, and nuclear energy 17.6%. These figures highlight a decrease in wind generation, which during the first half of the month was 60% lower than the average recorded over the last five years, as well as a reduction in nuclear energy production due to scheduled shutdowns of Ascó I and Ascó II. As a result, combined cycle plants increased their share in the production mix, reaching 19.4%, a 50% rise compared to the previous month.

The total energy generated during the month amounted to 20,599 GWh. Regarding electricity demand, a decrease was recorded, dropping from 20,135 GWh in October to 19,724 GWh in November. A similar trend is observed when compared to the same period of the previous year, when demand stood at 19,993 GWh.

The average electricity price in November was 105.63 €/MWh, a 50.58% increase compared to the October average price of 70.15 €/MWh. The highest hourly price recorded was 193.00 €/MWh on November 5th, while the lowest, 3.32 €/MWh, occurred on November 12th, 24th, and 25th.

Gas Prices

In the Spanish gas market, the average spot price increased from 40.41 €/MWh in October to 44.42 €/MWh in November. The highest prices were recorded on November 30th, reaching 49.03 €/MWh, while the lowest occurred on November 2nd, at 38.75 €/MWh.

The rise in gas prices is justified by the increase in CO2 emission allowances during this period, coupled with the fact that TTF gas futures peaked at 48.30 €/MWh. Expectations of higher demand due to falling temperatures in December further contributed to this trend. Additionally, storage levels dropped significantly, from over 100% at the beginning of November to 93.25% by the end of the month.

In parallel, the growing demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asian market caused some vessels originally to bound for Europe to redirect their shipments to Asia.

Fuels

Regarding the forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the coming months, the projected average monthly prices are as follows: 73.42 $/bbl for January, 72.99 $/bbl for February, and 72.71 $/bbl for March. The expected maximum prices are 75.63 $/bbl, 75.26 $/bbl, and 74.96 $/bbl, respectively.

Following the price decline observed in the last week of the previous month, this downward trend persisted throughout November. Factors such as the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon have contributed to improve the stability in the Middle East, reducing crude oil prices by lowering the supply risk associated with this conflict. Additionally, the outlook for a more abundant supply in 2025 has further supported this downward trend. According to the International Energy Agency, a surplus of more than one million barrels per day is expected, representing over 1% of global production.

Another significant development during the month was the postponement of the OPEC+ meeting. The group expects to define its trade policy for 2025. A key point of discussion will be the decision on whether to approve the planned increase in production by 180,000 barrels per day, originally scheduled for January 1, or to delay it further.

In terms of CO2 EUA, the price for December’25 increased to 69.60 €/t in November, up from 65.94 €/t in October. Similarly, the price for December’26 is even higher, reaching 71.71 €/t.

Future contracts trends

As is typical during the winter season, electricity prices are expected to continue their upward trend until January. In line with this, the average price for January’25 is projected at 91.46 €/MWh. In the following months, this trend is expected to reverse, with an estimated price of 44.74 €/MWh for April’25.

Power prices for the first quarters of 2025 have increased. In November, the average price for Q1’25 rose to 76.57 €/MWh, up from 70.89 €/MWh in October. Similarly, the average price for Q2’25 increased to 49.85 €/MWh, compared to 47.53 €/MWh in October. For Q3’25, prices in November were set at 81.53 €/MWh.

In the long term, the price of electricity for Cal’25 rose to 71.83 €/MWh, up from 69.11 €/MWh in October. However, for Cal’26, prices decreased slightly, reaching 61.82 €/MWh compared to 62.89 €/MWh in October.

The MIBGas contracts for November closed at 44.51 €/MWh for Q1’25 and 42.57 €/MWh for Q2’25, marking an increase compared to October, when the same products traded at 40.65 €/MWh and 38.72 €/MWh, respectively.
Regarding gas prices for Cal’25 and Cal’26, they stood at 39.10 €/MWh and 33.79 €/MWh in October. Following this upward trend, they increased in November to 42.20 €/MWh for Cal’25 and 34.21 €/MWh for Cal’26.

For EUA ETS prices, EUADec’25 rose to 69.60 €/t in November from 65.94 €/t in October, while EUADec’26 also increased, reaching 71.71 €/t in November compared to 67.98 €/t in October.

From January 2025, the energy sector in Spain will be subject to significant regulatory changes. The IVA will return to its general rate of 21%, after having been reduced in previous periods. Similarly, the IEE will be reinstated at 5.11%. Additionally, the IVPEE will revert to 7%, following reductions implemented in prior years.

SP Baseload Power price (€/MWh)

SP Peak load Power price (€/MWh)

EUA price (€/t)

MIBGas price (€/MWh)

Coal Price ($/Tn)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Gas vs. Coal Price (€/MWh)

Gas efficiency: 52%

Coal efficiency: 38%

Clean Spark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Spark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Baseload (€/MWh)

Clean Dark Spread – Peak load (€/MWh)

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Each month, one of our experts publishes an article describing his view on a specific topic of the constant changes taking place in the energy market, with special focus on the French market.

Profesional Experience & Education

Diego graduated in Political Economy at King’s College University (London – 2021). He started his professional career in a family business in Madrid as an operations manager. Diego then studied a Master in Management and Master in Computer Science at IE University (Madrid – 2022), during which he participated as an Information Technology (IT) intern in a startup. In May 2023, Diego joined the HES team as an intern specialised in programming models. In his first project, he developed a software tool for modelling the unavailability of the French nuclear fleet. Afterwards, Diego has also participated in the development of new software tools for modelling price curves, generation asset performance and other topics related to the energy market. 

Diego Marroquin

Junior Consultant

Haya Energy-6
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Profesional Experience

Céline joined Haya Energy Solutions in November 2021 as marketing and administration manager. She had a first professional experience in the tourism sector as a social media manager. At HES, her activities are focused on the development of the company’s visibility at European level through: commercial actions, content marketing and development of brand strategy. Céline is also involved in the management of the company’s communication: optimisation of the website (WordPress & Elementor), LinkedIn, publication of the monthly newsletter and the organisation of conferences. Céline participates in energy projects with the clients and acts as coordinator and project manager. Finally, she is in charge of administration (accounting, expenses management, invoicing).   

Education

Céline graduated in Spanish and English Philology at La Sorbonne (France – 2018) and holds a Master’s degree in Project Management and Cultural Tourism (Clermont-Ferrand/ Buenos Aires – 2021). 

Céline Haya Sauvage

Marketing Responsible

Céline Sauvage
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“Decarbonization of the Energy and Transport sectors is arguably today’s main economic driver for the industry.”

Profesional Experience

His career started in civil engineering as a Project Manager in France, Martinique and Australia. Afterwards, he became the General Manager of a subsidiary in Venezuela. In 1992, he established Dalkia in Germany (district heating, cogeneration, and partnerships) and represented Véolia in Thailand. In 2000, he opened the commercial office of Endesa in France to take advantage of the liberalized retail market. From 2006, as a development Manager at Endesa France, he led Endesa’s plan for Combined Cycle generation in France and developed the wind and PV portfolio of Snet at the same time. Philippe Boulanger worked for 3 years at E.ON’s headquarters coordinating the company´s activities in France. He was strongly involved in the French hydro concession renewal project. As a Senior Vice President – Project Director at Solvay Energy Services from April 2012 to February 2014 he was in charge of the H2/Power to gas and European direct market access deployment projects. Philippe has been an HES expert since 2014.

Education

Philippe Boulanger holds engineering degrees both from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (France) and has a combined experience of more than 25 years in energy and infrastructure. In addition to English, Mr. Boulanger is fluent in French, German & Spanish.

Philippe Boulanger

Electricity Expert

HES-Philippe-Boulanger
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“The world is changing. New investors pay particular attention to the energy sector while historical actors adapt their position to the market.”

Profesional Experience

Antonio started his career in the electricity sector in 1991 working as a member of the General Manager’s team at Sevillana de Electricidad (Spain). In 1997, he was appointed head of commercial regulation at Endesa Distribución. In 2000, he joined the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) department of Endesa Europe. He was appointed Managing Director of Endesa Power Trading Ltd (UK) in 2003. A year later, he became responsible for energy management at SNET (France). In 2008, he was appointed Managing Director of SNET (France). In 2009, he became Director of Corporate Development at E.ON France. In 2011, he founded Haya Energy Solutions (HES), a consulting firm focused on optimising the energy management of consumers, producers and retailers of gas and electricity. From 2015 to 2018, Antonio combined the consulting activity at HES with the general management of 2 production facilities in France (2 CCGTs x 410MW), owned by KKR. At the end of 2018, he joined Asterion Industrial Partners, an infrastructure investment fund, as an operating partner. Antonio currently devotes most of his efforts to the Asterion Portfolio, while advising through HES companies in the energy sector in France, Italy, Germany, UK and Spain. 

Education

Antonio graduated from the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros of Seville (Spain) and holds an MBA degree from Deusto University (Spain). 

Antonio Haya

CEO

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