The end of 2023-2024 winter: Analysis of the situation

Versions Control


Date Version From To Changes
1 2024/04/16 0.1 DiM Elaboration
2 2024/04/16 0.2 DiM Summarization
3 2024/04/16 0.3 MDL DiM Revision
4 2024/04/17 0.4 EnA DiM Revision
5 2024/04/17 0.5 EnA DiM Small FR analysis changes
6 2024/04/17 0.6 DiM With EnA revisions
7 2024/04/17 0.7 DiM Typos




Analysis of Winter 2022/23 vs 2023/24: Spain and France




Winter 2023/2024 has been a somewhat tense one. Both countries saw lower electricity prices compared to last winter, in line with increased market confidence following EU measures to counter the energy crisis. It should be noted that Spain experienced more price volatility than France this winter.

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The French Market Analysis Winter 2022 vs Winter 2023

Winter 2022 and Winter 2023 in the French electricity market showcased distinct patterns in demand, generation sources, and market prices.


Winter 2022 started with an increase of demand in November due to colder weather, reaching an average of 57.1 GW, and peaked at 66.8 GW in December due to a cold spell, but lowered throughout December and into January as the weather proved mild. Demand rose again later in January and February due to colder weather before dropping again at the end of February.

In contrast, winter 2023 saw notable surges in demand throughout the first months of the season, with November witnessing a significant increase driven by higher peak consumption, followed by December peaking even higher at 73.4 GW despite mild winter forecasts. January 2024 maintained high demand levels, reaching 70.4 GW during normal periods and peaking at 83.5 GW. We saw a decrease in demand in February, averaging 62.3 GW, with a peak of 68 GW, while March saw a significant decline with peak periods averaging 57.9 GW.

Overall, while the beginning of winter 2023 saw significant peaks compared to winter 2022. Demand stabilized in the latter months due to milder weather. From February onward, power demand was significantly lower than last year, despite more affordable power prices.




France Energy Consumption, Winter 2022 vs Winter 2023

Sources: RTE

Generation Impact on Demand:

During winter 2022, high levels of demand were met through increased gas and coal generation, while renewables fluctuated throughout the winter period. The nuclear power supply remained low but stable due to maintenance in December. Driven by renewables’ decrease in production, gas power generation peaked in February. Nuclear in March varied significantly due to unavailabilities and strikes, while gas and coal generation decreased. Renewables, especially wind, played a more significant role in March.

Winter 2023 showed stability in nuclear and gas generation while seeing a decrease in coal usage. However, forecasts of nuclear generation from EdF consistently predicted greater generation throughout the season than the real generation. Renewable energy played a significant role, especially wind power, which increased significantly, such as in December when it exceeded 20% of the mix. Overall, the winter 2023 generation mix rose in renewables and nuclear compared to last year, while gas remained relatively stable but low.


France Nuclear Generation, Winter 2022 vs Winter 2023

Sources: RTE














Winter 2023/2024 Nuclear Generation: Actual vs RTE Prediction

Source: RTE, HES


Market Prices:

Winter 2022 witnessed large price fluctuations driven by gas supply uncertainties due to the invasion of Ukraine and ensuing sanctions in the later winter months, relatively limited installed power capacity available during peak demand periods, especially due to un-forecasted nuclear unavailabilities driven by corrosion issues. Gas contract prices fell due to full storage in November, while emissions prices rose with colder forecasts. Gas contract prices rose significantly already during the previous summer and, although they decreased subsequently at the beginning of winter, the overall high price levels remained leading to exceptionally high energy prices. This was exacerbated in February when the Ukraine invasion occurred, and gas prices skyrocketed.

By contrast, winter 2023, thanks to LNG supply chain networks and high storage levels saw lower gas prices and, consequently, also thanks to higher French nuclear availability, saw much lower electricity prices too.

Both periods highlight energy market complexities, with short-term fluctuations driven by immediate factors that we saw in the generation and demand section of this article and longer-term trends shaped by geopolitical concerns and sanctions coupled with nuclear plant maintenance concerns.

France Spot Electricity Price, Winter 2022 vs Winter 2023

Sources: EPEX


Overall, Winter 2023 showcased a significant increase in electricity demand, a notable surge in renewable energy contributions, and stability in nuclear and gas generation, leading to lower price levels. This is in contrast with the previous winter, which saw notable fluctuations in market prices driven by gas and emissions price dynamics, as well as the Ukraine war and a renewed push for renewables by the EU.













The Spanish Market Analysis Winter 2022 vs Winter 2023


Winter 2022 saw the demand for electricity in Spain during November and December 2022 remained relatively stable, with slight fluctuations due to seasonal influences and weather conditions, although the price levels were overall high due to the energy crisis. January 2023 saw a surge in demand, driven by post-holiday activity. February saw improved stability and increased demand.

In Winter 2023, there was a notable rise in energy demand in November 2023, marking continued growth in electricity consumption. December 2023 also witnessed a significant increase, reinforcing the upward trajectory in electricity consumption. The increase in demand in Winter 2023 compared to Winter 2022 was primarily due to sustained economic activities post-holidays, colder temperatures, and continued economic growth, driving higher electricity consumption throughout the season, as well as lower power prices.


Generation Mix and Prices:

In the winter 2022 we saw increased wind power generation in November, which contributed to lower electricity prices. Hydro and solar generation varied in December, balancing renewables versus non-renewables at similar levels. Gas prices initially rose but fell sharply later, affected by EU gas contract caps and warmer temperatures, contributing to price drops along with falling gas prices and reduced CO2 costs. Wind, nuclear, and hydro remained the top generation sources in January, with renewables’ share rising to 56%.

Winter 2023 had even higher contributions from renewables, especially wind, and hydropower, which, together with successful EU-level energy crisis measures, led to reduced electricity prices despite fluctuations influenced by gas and CO2 contracts. Comparing the previous winter to this one, and taking into account the EU’s push this winter for decarbonization and COP24 as well as Spain’s reduction of nuclear generation, we can see that the fraction of renewables in the generation mix will likely continue to increase during the next winter. Currently, total generation is lower than the previous winter as Spain pivots toward renewables by decommissioning nuclear generation plants.










Spain Total Energy Generation, Winter 2022 vs Winter 2023

Sources: Entsoe


Gas and CO2 Prices:

In November 2022, gas prices initially fell but later rose, with CO2 prices also increasing. December saw gas prices initially rise but then fall sharply, while CO2 prices rose significantly. In January, gas prices dropped sharply due to ample supply, and CO2 futures fell slightly. In February, gas prices continued to fall, but CO2 futures rose notably. In March, gas prices decreased further, while CO2 contracts also decreased slightly. Overall, gas and CO2 prices in Winter 2022 showed fluctuations influenced by market dynamics, weather conditions, and regulatory factors.

In November 2023, Spain saw lower gas and CO2 prices, influencing electricity costs. December noted decreased gas prices and stable CO2 prices. January marked reduced gas and CO2 prices, stabilizing the energy market. February saw a further drop in gas prices and CO2 contracts, while March observed a slight increase in gas prices and CO2 contracts.

Comparing winter 2023 to winter 2022, gas and CO2 prices in winter 2023 generally showed a trend of decrease or stability, influenced by market dynamics and regulatory measures. This contrasts with Winter 2022, where gas and CO2 prices experienced more significant fluctuations and increases.

Regulatory and Policy Influences:

In the winter of 2022, the Spanish government aimed to stabilize electricity prices by integrating strategies into future contracts and tariffs, tackling price fluctuations, such as when the European Commission proposed a compromise on electricity market reform, favoring futures markets and long-term contracts. CO2 emission allowance price hikes affected electricity production costs, potentially due to regulatory changes or market dynamics. While efforts helped manage some fluctuations, market forces like gas price rises persisted.

Winter 2023 saw regulatory changes impacting gas and CO2 prices, notably lowering gas prices. Despite market dynamics, regulatory interventions, especially in CO2 and gas contracts, shaped market conditions and pricing trends significantly. These included EUETS regulations, which expanded to include methane and nitrous oxide emissions from large ships starting in 2026. Overall, Winter 2023 showed increased demand, significant renewable energy contributions, and lower gas and CO2 prices, emphasizing the transition to sustainable energy and the role of regulations in stabilizing markets.

Spain Spot Electricity Price, Winter 2022 vs Winter 2023

Sources: OMIE


Winter 2022/23 and 2023/24 were relatively unstable due to the Coronavirus pandemic, the invasion of Ukraine, and the French nuclear powerplant crisis. Comparing winter 2023/24 to winter 2022/23, we can see a stabilization in energy generation and prices across most of Europe. However, in coming years, with increased renewable energy and the decommissioning of several nuclear, coal, and gas power plants across Europe, power prices may fluctuate significantly and still strike high levels during peak demand periods. Meanwhile, the increase in installed renewable power capacity could also increase the frequency of zero-to-negative electricity prices. Therefore, the future energy markets will continue to have their share of uncertainties and fluctuations.


Spot Electricity Price Comparison France and Spain, Winter 2022 vs Winter 2023

Source: OMIE; EPEX

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Each month, one of our experts publishes an article describing his view on a specific topic of the constant changes taking place in the energy market, with special focus on the French market.

Profesional Experience & Education

Diego graduated in Political Economy at King’s College University (London – 2021). He started his professional career in a family business in Madrid as an operations manager. Diego then studied a Master in Management and Master in Computer Science at IE University (Madrid – 2022), during which he participated as an Information Technology (IT) intern in a startup. In May 2023, Diego joined the HES team as an intern specialised in programming models. In his first project, he developed a software tool for modelling the unavailability of the French nuclear fleet. Afterwards, Diego has also participated in the development of new software tools for modelling price curves, generation asset performance and other topics related to the energy market. 

Diego Marroquin

Junior Consultant

Haya Energy-6

Profesional Experience

Céline joined Haya Energy Solutions in November 2021 as marketing and administration manager. She had a first professional experience in the tourism sector as a social media manager. At HES, her activities are focused on the development of the company’s visibility at European level through: commercial actions, content marketing and development of brand strategy. Céline is also involved in the management of the company’s communication: optimisation of the website (WordPress & Elementor), LinkedIn, publication of the monthly newsletter and the organisation of conferences. Céline participates in energy projects with the clients and acts as coordinator and project manager. Finally, she is in charge of administration (accounting, expenses management, invoicing).   


Céline graduated in Spanish and English Philology at La Sorbonne (France – 2018) and holds a Master’s degree in Project Management and Cultural Tourism (Clermont-Ferrand/ Buenos Aires – 2021). 

Céline Haya Sauvage

Marketing Responsible

Céline Sauvage

Investment Advice

“Decarbonization of the Energy and Transport sectors is arguably today’s main economic driver for the industry.”

Profesional Experience

His career started in civil engineering as a Project Manager in France, Martinique and Australia. Afterwards, he became the General Manager of a subsidiary in Venezuela. In 1992, he established Dalkia in Germany (district heating, cogeneration, and partnerships) and represented Véolia in Thailand. In 2000, he opened the commercial office of Endesa in France to take advantage of the liberalized retail market. From 2006, as a development Manager at Endesa France, he led Endesa’s plan for Combined Cycle generation in France and developed the wind and PV portfolio of Snet at the same time. Philippe Boulanger worked for 3 years at E.ON’s headquarters coordinating the company´s activities in France. He was strongly involved in the French hydro concession renewal project. As a Senior Vice President – Project Director at Solvay Energy Services from April 2012 to February 2014 he was in charge of the H2/Power to gas and European direct market access deployment projects. Philippe has been an HES expert since 2014.


Philippe Boulanger holds engineering degrees both from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale des Ponts & Chaussées (France) and has a combined experience of more than 25 years in energy and infrastructure. In addition to English, Mr. Boulanger is fluent in French, German & Spanish.

Philippe Boulanger

Electricity Expert


“The world is changing. New investors pay particular attention to the energy sector while historical actors adapt their position to the market.”

Profesional Experience

Antonio started his career in the electricity sector in 1991 working as a member of the General Manager’s team at Sevillana de Electricidad (Spain). In 1997, he was appointed head of commercial regulation at Endesa Distribución. In 2000, he joined the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) department of Endesa Europe. He was appointed Managing Director of Endesa Power Trading Ltd (UK) in 2003. A year later, he became responsible for energy management at SNET (France). In 2008, he was appointed Managing Director of SNET (France). In 2009, he became Director of Corporate Development at E.ON France. In 2011, he founded Haya Energy Solutions (HES), a consulting firm focused on optimising the energy management of consumers, producers and retailers of gas and electricity. From 2015 to 2018, Antonio combined the consulting activity at HES with the general management of 2 production facilities in France (2 CCGTs x 410MW), owned by KKR. At the end of 2018, he joined Asterion Industrial Partners, an infrastructure investment fund, as an operating partner. Antonio currently devotes most of his efforts to the Asterion Portfolio, while advising through HES companies in the energy sector in France, Italy, Germany, UK and Spain. 


Antonio graduated from the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros of Seville (Spain) and holds an MBA degree from Deusto University (Spain). 

Antonio Haya